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What Direction Of China'S Next Stage Macroeconomic Policy Orientation?

2010/7/10 9:50:00 36

Macroeconomic Policy

The impact of the European debt crisis is still not bottomed out, and the US economic recovery is weak.

The most complex year of China's economy is now half gone. The severity of the international financial crisis and the tortuosity of economic recovery exceed expectations. China's economy is still in great uncertainty in the international and domestic environment.

In the first half of the year, the important economic data will be released soon, Xinhua News Agency reporters interviewed a number of well-known economists, the next stage of macroeconomic policy analysis and prediction.


China's economy will not "overheat" nor will it "stagflate".


China's economy grew by 11.9% in the first quarter, which led to economic overheating.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the high growth rate in the first quarter was the result of policy stimulus and the reason for the low base last year.

With the continuous increase of the two or three and fourth quarter base and the existence and accumulation of external uncertainties, the annual economic growth will show a trend of "before and after".


Wang Jian, vice president of the Chinese society of macroeconomics, pointed out that the current economic situation at home and abroad is still extremely complex, and that China's economic growth has come down, but the rate of decline will not be too severe.

He predicted that the annual economic growth should be over 9%, of which two quarter 10.5%, three quarter 10%, fourth quarter below 9%.


"The prominent pressing problem of the Chinese economy is not overheating, but how to maintain steady and rapid economic development under a series of unfavorable and uncertain risks and avoid a sharp downturn in the economy."

Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the China Development Office of the Asian Development Bank, pointed out.


The economic situation in the US and Europe has not seen a big improvement. The growth rate of domestic investment and industrial production has declined, and the stock market and the property market have been in a doldrums. The CPI growth has climbed.

After the May economic data was released, the outside world also had a "stagflation" concern for the Chinese economy.


Industry is a representative index reflecting the speed of economic growth.

Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of Chinese industry has dropped from 20.7% to 16.5% in May.

In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.1%, down 1.8 percentage points again after May's 1.8% decline.

In terms of public price, China's CPI rose by 3% in May, reaching 3.1%.


Some analysts expressed concern that if the European debt crisis, the appreciation of the renminbi, the rise in labor costs, the cancellation of export tax rebates for some products, the increase in energy saving and emission reduction, and the regulation of the real estate market, the downward pressure on China's economy will increase significantly.


"The moderate drop in growth rate and the moderate rise in prices can not represent stagflation in our economy, but show that the economy is running steadily and returning to normal intervals."

The head of the National Bureau of statistics explained.


From the data of April and May, although the growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down slightly, it has maintained a relatively high level; investment and consumption are also at a relatively good level in the same period of history; export growth rebounded even better than market expectations; a series of macroeconomic indicators continued to rebound.


Zhuang Jian said that the target of achieving a year-on-year CPI increase of 3% is based on factors such as the drop in credit and loans and the stock of important commodities.

Whether from the real economy or from the three carriages of economic growth, China's economy has maintained a steady and rapid growth trend, and there is no possibility of stagflation.


"China's economy is in the process of changing from a policy backed up to a market driven, relatively stable but more sustainable growth."

Zhang Liqun said.


The current economic work still needs to attach great importance to "steady growth".


At the recent economic forum held in Changsha, Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed that the seriousness of the impact of the international financial crisis and the tortuosity of the economic recovery all exceeded the expectations of the people. The problem of "dilemma" faced by the macroeconomic regulation and control increased. We should not only solve the long-standing structural problems, but also solve the outstanding pressing problems at the same time, which must be carried out under the premise of stable and rapid economic development.


Wang Jian believed that Premier Wen Jiabao's speech highlighted the Central Committee's high regard for "steady growth" and revealed the loose signal of the next stage of macroeconomic regulation and control policy.

In the relationship of steady growth, structural adjustment and managing inflation expectations, the central government still regards "steady growth" as an important prerequisite for all economic work in the current and future period.


"The next stage of China's economic stimulus policy does not exit. The general direction of macroeconomic regulation is to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy."

Zhuang Jian said.


China has been emphasizing structural adjustment and managing inflation expectations since last year.

Some scholars believe that, for some time, whether it is to control the pace of credit placement, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, or the intensive control measures aimed at the real estate market, it seems to have issued a "macro policy tightening" signal.


"But now, from the published statistics and international and domestic complex factors, China's macroeconomic policy is still the tone of" loose "as a whole in order to maintain steady and rapid economic development.

Wang Jian said that China is facing a grim situation - the danger of the "two bottom finding" of the world economy is increasing, and the optimistic voice is becoming less and less. The US non farm employment data and Dow Jones index just released are not optimistic. The US Wall Street analysts believe that the economic recovery in the US and Europe is still fragile and even faces a turning point of "down".


A report from the US Department of Commerce showed that US factory orders dropped by 1.4% in May, the biggest decline in 14 months.

According to the US Department of Labor report, non farm employment in the United States decreased by 125 thousand in June, indicating a continuing weakness in the employment market in the United States.

The latest report of the World Conference on large enterprises shows that the US consumer confidence index has ended three consecutive months of rising trend, from 62.7 in May to 52.9 in June, exceeding market expectations.


At the Forum on economic situation held in Changsha, Wen Jiabao pointed out that the current economic situation in China is good, but the economic environment at home and abroad is extremely complicated. We must persist in handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, stabilizing policies and making solid efforts to ensure the goal of economic and social development this year.


Focus on prevention of various realities and potential risks.


At the Forum on economic situation held in Beijing at the end of June, Wen Jiabao stressed that we should focus on the current situation and plan for the long term so as to lay a solid foundation for the steady and rapid economic development next year and even for a longer period.

We should seize the favorable opportunity at present and make efforts to promote economic structural adjustment, structural reform and pformation of the mode of economic development, so that macroeconomic regulation and control will help to overcome short-term difficulties, solve the current outstanding contradictions, and help build a sustainable development system and mechanism, and alleviate the structural and structural contradictions in the long-term economic development.


"Structural adjustment" will undoubtedly become one of the main themes of China's economic work in the next stage.

Next, the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control will be to solve the problems of medium and long-term development, and work hard in the reform of income distribution, energy conservation and emission reduction, and institutional reform.

Zhang Liqun pointed out that this will be a long and complex process, which requires arduous efforts.


Fan Jianping, chief economist of the national information center and director of the economic forecasting department, believes that economic growth is maintained at around 8%, which is a sustainable development speed.

The next step is to seize the favorable opportunity to make more efforts and resources to speed up structural adjustment, adhere to the pressure of maintaining pressure, actively promote the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises in line with the requirements of the national industrial policy, strictly control excess capacity and "two high and one capital" industry.


This year, China has adjusted some policies to stimulate the economy, for example, the amount of credit is gradually returning to normal. At the same time, some areas with bubbles, such as the real estate market, are decisive.

Zhuang Jian pointed out that the goal of government regulation is to achieve long-term and sustainable economic development without affecting employment and economic viability.


"Structural adjustment should be a long-term strategy."

Wen Zongyu, a researcher at the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of finance, believes that the complexity of China's economic development and many deep-seated economic and social problems require China to achieve high-quality economic recovery and growth through structural adjustment.


He pointed out that the national statistical departments and economic policy research institutions should collect and regularly publish the numerical data and data of structural adjustment, and establish quantitative evaluation indicators for structural adjustment, including the data and data of structural adjustment of economic growth; the value and data of industrial structure and product structure adjustment; the value and data of structural adjustment of state and non state economy; the value and data of social income distribution structure adjustment; and the value and data of social class structure adjustment.


Analysts pointed out that in the real economy and endogenous vitality and "vitality" has not yet fully recovered, the bubble of the virtual economy and the rapid expansion of the scale of commercial banks, exacerbated the uncertainty of economic operation, which will further stimulate and induce the reality and potential risks in the economic operation.


Wen Zongyu said that the current macroeconomic regulation and control of the government should be highly vigilant and guard against the operational difficulties and financial risks of financial companies lagging behind, guard against the economic risk of stagflation after the first bubble and the risk of housing market collapse caused by the long term and long-term rise in housing prices.

The latent risk determines that macroeconomic regulation and control should not only focus on "steady growth", but also take more proactive measures on "risk prevention".


Will there be another large-scale stimulus plan at the next stage?


A two-year package of economic stimulus plans will expire in a few months. Will China launch a large-scale economic stimulus plan? Wang Jian pointed out that the central government has little chance of introducing a new economic stimulus policy, because stimulus policies can not solve the problem from the root, but there will be many dangers.


He said that the future direction of macroeconomic regulation must combine long-term goals with short-term goals.

Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, overcapacity and irrational structure in some areas were quite prominent.

Against this background, we should continue to increase investment. Although we can rely on a new round of investment expansion to boost growth over a period of time, the original contradiction will not only be eased but also intensified.


Yuan Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and world economic research center, is also inclined to believe that China will not introduce a new large-scale economic stimulus plan.

He said that the previous stimulus policy had a huge pulling effect on the economy, but it also had many negative effects: high energy consumption, high pollution and resource-based industries grew rapidly, and some backward backward production capacity was revived, and the irrational structure was even more prominent.


Economists believe that in the future, China should provide basic support for sustained expansion of consumption by encouraging healthy development of private investment, reforming the income distribution system, and promoting the urbanization process, so as to create an endogenous driving force for the steady development of the economy.


At the Forum on economic situation held in Changsha, Wen Jiabao stressed that we should focus on the present and take a long-term view. We should strive to improve the system and mechanism, deepen the reform and solve the current outstanding contradictions while adhering to the total regulation and control, and lay the foundation for the steady and rapid economic development next year and even for a longer period.


It has been noted that some major reforms that have been brewing for many years started this year.

according to

The State Council

Agreed to deepen the reform of the economic system this year, we need to accelerate the relaxation of the conditions for the settlement of small and medium-sized cities and small towns this year, and put forward the objectives, priorities and measures for the reform of income distribution, introduce the reform plan of resource tax, and study the implementation of the reform of the personal income tax system.


This year, the State Council promulgated the "36 points" to encourage and guide the healthy development of private investment, and the supporting measures are being worked out.

Nie Gaomin, director of the national development and Reform Commission's Institute of physical reform, pointed out that this is actually a continuation of the government led economic stimulus policy.


China began to launch the next 10 years' western development. Recently, it has put forward a series of new requirements, new tasks and new measures for the further implementation of the strategy of developing the western region.

Li Keqiang, vice premier of the State Council, pointed out that the western region has vast territory, huge market space, room for maneuver and great potential for development. It is our strategic orientation to expand our domestic demand and accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development.


"Macroeconomic regulation and control should solve short-term problems, deepen reform and promote the pformation of the mode of economic development and solve the problem of sustainable development in the medium and long term. The combination of the two will lay the foundation for the sound and rapid development of the economy throughout the year and even longer."

Nie Gaomin said.


The Statistics Bureau judged that economic growth in the first half was slower than in the first quarter.


On July 4th -5, the National Bureau of statistics held a forum on economic situation in the first half of the year in Shandong, including the director of Statistics Bureau of Beijing and other 10 provinces and municipalities.


This reporter learned that, at this meeting, some local statistical departments have taken part in the first half of the economic figures, compared with the previous year's analysis will only change slightly in the 1-5 months.


It is generally believed that the economic and industrial growth rate in the first half of this year will be lower than that in the first quarter, and there are also some new problems, such as the increasing difficulty of export growth and the uncertain trend of the real estate market.

This will increase the difficulty of judging the economic trend of the next step.


Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that the current macro-economy is in a critical period of stabilization and recovery. The macroeconomic regulation is developing towards the expected direction. However, under the complicated and changeable international economic environment, the uncertainty and complexity of the domestic economic operation is increasing.


The National Bureau of statistics is currently collecting and calculating the first half of the year's economic data.

These figures and policy proposals will be reported to the decision-making level in the form of a newsletter. The State Council will hold executive meetings in the middle of this month to deploy the work in the second half of the year.


Economic growth is slower than the first quarter.


In the first half of the State Statistical Bureau's symposium held, the local statistics department generally believed that the first half of this year's economic growth is expected to decline compared with the first quarter, but this decline is the normal result of state regulation.


"This result shows that the economy is still running high, and we can not say that we will have to go to the bottom for two times, and we can not say that the country is going to do another second stimulus."

A local statistical department said.


The economic situation analysis group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that from the second quarter of this year, the economic growth of each quarter will be 1 percentage points lower than that of the previous quarter.

In view of the economic growth rate of 11.9% in the first quarter, the economic growth in the first half of this year will still be over 10%.

"Even if the economic growth rate continues downward, the growth rate will still exceed 8% in the first quarter of next year."

Zhang Xiaojing, director of the macroeconomic Office of the Institute of economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters at a meeting gap.


Take Jiangsu as an example, the province held a provincial executive meeting in July 2nd to hear the analysis of the economic performance in the first half of the year.

In the first half of this year, Jiangsu's GDP grew by 14.5%, and its general budget revenue increased by 25%.

In the first quarter of this year, Jiangsu's GDP growth rate was 15.4%, as the first half of the year's economic growth rate was 14.5%. In the two quarter, the economic growth rate may have dropped by more than 1 percentage points in the first quarter, but it still maintained a relatively high growth rate.


The Shaanxi Provincial Information Center recently convened people from the local development and Reform Commission and Statistics Bureau to hold the first half year situation analysis meeting. It also judged that the province's economic growth in the first half of this year and the whole year will be lower than the 18.2% in the first quarter.

The annual economic growth rate may be 15%, probably in the first half of 16%.


And the inflationary pressure has been reduced.

National Bureau of Statistics

The above symposium has also been recognized.


Uncertainty increases


Although the economy is still at a high level, the complexity and uncertainty of future economic trends will remain unchanged.


People who participated in the first half of the State Statistical Bureau's Symposium judged that the investment in real estate is still accelerating, but as sales slows down, whether the future will drag down fixed assets investment and lead to economic downturn is a matter to be noted.


Meanwhile, despite the rapid growth of exports in the first half of the year, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has not yet been resolved, and the space for export growth in the second half of this year may be narrowed.


When analyzing the economic situation in the first half of the year, the Jiangsu provincial government pointed out that we must fully understand the complexity of the international and domestic economic situation. "We are highly concerned about slowing down the growth of some key indicators, highlighting the contradiction between production factors, increasing the external demand for sustained growth, and running the real estate market."


Jiangsu Bureau of Statistics officials told reporters that Jiangsu's current export growth is relatively fast, but what will happen in the future is indeed unknown. "At the same time, as the minimum wage rises, labor costs will rise, which will cause some pressure on the production of enterprises".


Since the beginning of this year, all localities have raised the minimum wage standard. At present, the minimum monthly wage standard in Zhejiang has reached 1100 yuan, ranking first in all provinces and autonomous regions of the country.


Hainan is the lowest this year.

Wage standard

The increase was 31.7%, exceeding the 20% increase in Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places.

However, due to the low dependence on the manufacturing industry, raising the minimum wage standard has little impact on the economy of Hainan, but there are other worries in Hainan.


In the first quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate of the sea and Hainan was 25.1%, ranking the first in the country.

Mainly from the added value of agriculture, value-added services, investment growth ranked first in the country.

Among them, investment in real estate development has increased by 136.9%, and its growth rate is nearly 4 times that of the national average.


However, officials of the Hainan Provincial Bureau of statistics believe that Hainan's economic growth should not be too optimistic.

The reason is that the real estate development in Hainan has seen the rapid expansion of construction area and the declining trend of sales area. Hainan still has control over land and the possibility of economic slowdown.

"As soon as the figures come out in June, it will be clear."


The figures released by Hainan housing and urban and rural construction department show that the average selling price of commercial housing in Hainan in May was 8483 yuan / square meter, 3 yuan, 12280 yuan / square meter in April, 11932 yuan / square meter, and the price in May was nearly 30% lower than that in April.


Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, is more concerned about the abnormal changes of the ring data. When he held an analysis meeting in Shandong, he pointed out that the data interpretation and situation analysis of statistical institutions at all levels should be more targeted and predictable.

For the analysis of the current economic situation, we should pay attention to monthly changes and study monthly indicators. At the same time, we should study the monthly ratio and pay attention to the leading indicators. "We should not only answer the question of" what is, "but also answer the question of" why ".

He said.

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