Who Will Benefit Most From Soaring Cotton Prices?

Since the beginning of the new cotton scale this year,

Buyout companies dare not risk high price acquisitions.

Washington (correspondent Xing Yintian reporter Xing Yun) since the beginning of the new cotton scale this year, the price of cotton in Southern Hebei has gone all the way.

Take Jize County as an example, the local cotton seed per catty rose from 3.2 yuan to 5.2 yuan, which rose 62.5% in one month, and the crazy rise of cotton (24725310.00,1.27%) hit the highest price in nearly 10 years.

In the afternoon of October 7th, the Jize cotton spinning industrial area was short of people and cars, and dozens of acquisition companies suspended the acquisition. Only one company cautiously purchased.

This scene is in contrast with the traffic that has been coming to the shops several days ago.

At the front door of the above enterprise, only 4 merchants sold the cotton semi tricycle each time in two hours.

Why didn't traders sell them to them? The other side replied, "I have to make a day's work without saying that I still have to pay for the oil money!"

A few days ago, a day could be full of two cars (about 3000 kilos a car). Now several villages have been pferred to such a few hundred pounds. So many of these acquisition points have been stopped, and here they have been given 4 yuan 7. The cost price I collected is the price. Can you sell it?

According to the person in charge of a company, the cotton collected in the first few days is about 5 yuan per catty, and now it loses money when it falls slightly. Dozens of enterprises here are afraid of losing money to suspend the purchase. In fact, they dare not buy at high price. The price is low. If we are willing to sell, we will close the collection, and we will not get the cotton. We prefer to stop production and do not want to take the risk of buying at a high price.

Cotton farmers: high price, high yield, and money making.

"5.3 yuan a Jin, this is the price that oneself sends to buy a point, if come to collect, it is 5.15 yuan a Jin."

Lao Wang, a cotton grower in Nanpi, Cangzhou, told reporters that this year cotton was counted as a profit. Last year, the highest cotton price did not exceed 4 yuan per catty, and this year it has been around 5 yuan.

One mu of land can harvest four hundred or five hundred jin of cotton, with a income of more than 2000 yuan.

However, the price goes up and the output must be guaranteed.

"This year's output is not much affected, such as Handan and other places, the continuous rain and rainy cotton peach has rotted a lot, and an average yield of one hundred or two hundred jin per mu is normal, so that the income per mu is less than in previous years."

"It is said that the good quality cotton has even broken through the 6 yuan / Jin mark, so I only sold part of it this time, and I kept some of it to see if the market was sold again."

Lao Wang said.

During the interview, the reporter found that many cotton growers saw cotton prices high this year and were not eager to make a move. They were waiting to see cotton prices continue to rise, so there is not much cotton circulating in the market now.

"These are normal market trends and market psychology. It is estimated that by the end of the year, when people spend money in the new year, there will be a small peak in the cotton trade fair."

Provincial Textile Industry Association experts said.

A cotton grower in Xingdi village, Jize County, said that 8 mu of cotton was planted last year, and only 3 mu was planted this year.

The cotton price is high this year, but the output is too low. In the past year, picking five hundred or six hundred kilograms per mu is very common. It is good to pick up 400 Jin this year, so cotton Nongda is not in a hurry to launch, and is waiting to rebound again! {page_break}

According to introduction, from cotton to cotton products, we have to go through so many processes. Cotton enters cotton mill to produce cotton yarn, cotton yarn goes into textile mill to produce grey cloth, cotton yarn or grey cloth goes into clothing, socks, towels and other consumer goods production enterprises.

On the whole chain, the price of cotton yarn is much higher than that of cotton.

According to the data of China's first textile network, the price of cotton yarn variety C32S in January this year was about 21 thousand yuan per ton, rising to 27 thousand yuan or 28.6% at the end of June, while the 328 spot cotton price rose from 18 thousand yuan per ton to 18 thousand yuan during the same period, and cotton yarn rose by far higher than that of cotton, which contributed to a sharp rise in the performance of cotton yarn enterprises.

Since October 2009, the whole cotton yarn has gone up frenzied.

Take the 32S combed high quality knitting yarn as an example, the factory quoted price with tickets was 18500 yuan / ton in October last year, and it rose to 30500 yuan / ton in May this year, up 12000 yuan, or 64.86%.

Statistics show that in September, because cotton prices continued to be high, and the peak season came, and the pressure of manufacturers' inventory was not large, the whole cotton yarn was constantly rising, and the cotton yarn manufacturers' quotations rose more than 5000 yuan within one month.

Cotton yarn enterprises are known as the biggest beneficiaries of this wave price increase.

One industry insider said that the price of the 3 class real estate cotton belt ticket on the market is 19000 yuan / ton. If the loss of 8% is calculated, and the processing cost and the financial cost of 5000 yuan, the cost of the 32S combed high quality cotton knitted yarn is 25520 yuan / ton, and the profit space is 5000 yuan / ton.

In fact, more cotton mill actual profit margins are far more than that.

Semi annual report shows that China's largest textile enterprise Wei Qiao textile in the first half of this year cotton yarn business gross profit margin was 15.7%, compared to 7% last year, nearly doubled.

According to the analysis of the industry, the good income of spinning enterprises comes from the accumulation of large quantities of stocks at low prices.

In addition, because of the booming demand of downstream garment enterprises, the discourse power of spinning enterprises has become more powerful this year.

The profit of textile enterprises dropped from 10% to 5%.

"According to this year's market, cotton yarn price rises almost two or three days, but from the textile production process, from customer orders to finishing, usually takes two weeks.

Two weeks later, the price of raw materials is quite different. "

The head of a small textile enterprise in the provincial capital Gaocheng told reporters that they usually signed production contracts with customers first, then procuring raw materials, and the price of raw materials could not be fully reflected in the products. "If the cotton yarn link rose by 30%, we would increase up to 20% at most, and the remaining 10% could only digest itself."

As middlemen, they can only sacrifice some profits to ensure sales volume.

"Take the gray cloth, a meter can rise a few cents is already good, most of Hebei's gray cloth is low-end products, originally sales volume is limited, there is no right to speak on the question of price rise."

Therefore, under the background of rising raw materials, the prices of finished products of most enterprises are forced to rise less than cotton, so they are basically in a state of net loss.

It is understood that with the rising price of cotton yarn, the profit of textile enterprises has dropped from 10% to 5%-6%.

"Many of our peers are in a mess this year, and some simply stop production."

The person in charge said.

If prices go too far, families will not be able to afford it.

So they usually communicate with customers and share part of their expenses, each to digest the cost of a price increase.

If we can't persist, we can only face the shutdown.

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Garment factory: price increase, development of new materials, digestion and price increase

Insiders say that when the wave of price rises has been pmitted to clothing enterprises, its strength has been greatly weakened.

"Clothing enterprises, especially brand clothing enterprises, have a very strong ability to digest costs. For example, a garment with a retail price of 1000 yuan may cost only 100 yuan. The change in cotton prices has little impact on these enterprises."

So, what is the actual situation? "As far as I know, some garment exporters are afraid to take orders now."

A person in charge of clothing export enterprises in the provincial capital said that they had already felt the pressure of "rising prices of autumn clothes".

Since the beginning of this year, orders have just come up, and I do not expect cotton raising prices and recruitment difficulties to raise the wage surge.

"We were only prepared to produce autumn clothes in June and July, just in time to catch up with the worst price of fabrics.

So this year's factory price must be raised.

A pair of trousers may last only 100 yuan last year, at least 130 yuan this year. "

The head of a garment factory in the provincial capital said.

In fact, such a story is not a case of small and medium-sized enterprises. The sportswear brand "Lining" announced in June this year that the retail price of clothing products will increase by 17.9% in the fourth quarter of this year.

At the end of August, the sportswear brand "XTEP" issued a semi annual report, its clothing products average selling price reached 52.5 yuan, and the average price increased by 13.9% in half a year.

At the same time, the rise in cotton prices has forced some textile enterprises to explore new materials to reduce the content of pure cotton in their products.

Modle and bamboo carbon fiber underwear accounted for half of the country.

"Cotton prices have risen and can only be replaced by modal cotton."

The head of a brand underwear store of the provincial capital told reporters that the 50% products launched by the company now contain modal.

Retail terminal: jeans, socks, price rises, cotton clothes, cotton cloth, "water rises high."

"These are the autumn clothes that we just went to today, and the price has gone up a lot."

The boss said that the three piece sets of winter clothes were about 240 yuan (each set), and now the price of the autumn suits exceeds that price. Last year, wholesale prices of each cotton and children's T-shirt were only 20 yuan to 30 yuan, and the wholesale price of the same quality children's T-shirts this year is around 30 yuan.

"Cotton prices are skyrocketing, and the price of clothing is also one price per day.

The wholesale cotton pajamas with a wholesale price of 55 yuan yesterday amounted to 60 yuan today.

The salesperson next door added.

During the interview, the reporter found that not only the clothing, but the items that were closely related to cotton were all rising in price. "The four piece sets of different quality increased by 15 yuan to 20 yuan, and the bed sheets also increased by 2 yuan to 5 yuan."

Ms. Wang, who runs bedding products, told reporters that since March and April, cotton fabrics have been raising prices. At present, bedding items such as quilts, sheets, bedspreads and so on are up by 10%-15% compared with the same period last year.

"In May and June of this year, the high staple cotton could reach 20 yuan per metre from Shanghai, but now it rises to 25 yuan, so that we can barely enter the goods.

Our profits are also getting lower and lower. "

Affected by the rise in cotton prices, the total price of cowboy products with cotton as the main ingredient has been raised.

"Wholesale prices of jeans this year rose by 3%-5% over the same period last year."

The head of a jeans store in the provincial capital said.

"In the middle of October this year, when the new cotton comes in a large number of market, the price of cotton should be reduced, but it will not be less than 20 thousand (per ton)."

A senior member of the Provincial Textile Industry Association said.

But at that time, it has entered the preparatory stage for spring and summer new clothes next year. The price rise of cotton products this autumn and winter is the trend of the times.

He also believes that this year's cotton prices fall in limited space, and then the market trend, we should take into account the weather factors and downstream demand and many other aspects.