PTA market price is mainly determined by upstream cost and its supply and demand.
The change of upstream crude oil price has a guiding effect on chemical products futures from a long-term trend, but in the short term fluctuations, if the supply and demand relationship is dominant, the linkage between crude oil and chemical products will also deviate.
Before the Spring Festival, due to the surge of tension in Egypt, crude oil futures surged for the two consecutive trading day, and domestic energy and chemical products also showed a trend of inflation.
During the Spring Festival, the situation in Egypt eased, and crude oil prices continued to fall sharply by 5.9%. But after the festival, the trend of domestic chemical industry was opposite to that of crude oil, and the three varieties of LLDPE, PVC and PTA rose in turn, and PTA continued to record a new high.
The driving force behind the PTA price will be changed from the early investment demand to the real consumption demand. From the operation of the textile industry at the high cotton price in the second half of last year, the author is more optimistic about the demand for textile in spring, and the medium term trend of PTA is unchanged.
During the Spring Festival, the market price of para xylene in Asia continued to rise. In February, the contract settlement price was set at 1620 US dollars / ton, up 240 US dollars compared with the January settlement price of US $1380 / ton; the PX spot market price basically stabilized at 1630 US dollars / ton during the festival.
Although there are 1 million tons of new petrochemical units put into operation in China, the tight supply of p-xylene market in Asia is still very serious. Therefore, for PTA, the trend of cost increase has not changed.
Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, the price of Asian PTA spot market basically maintained near $1410 / ton. Although the load of PTA manufacturers started to load higher, the contract intent price continued to rise.
At present, Sinopec Sales Company and all major PTA factories have raised their intention to list prices in February. Some of the factory prices have been set up by 800 yuan / ton for 11800 yuan / ton, and they are actually shipped according to the contract volume.
On the 14 day, the PTA futures market fell sharply, and spot prices also came back.
In addition to short staple, the downstream will basically maintain stability.
At present, the substantive demand for downstream has not yet been effectively released, and terminal demand is still relatively weak.
As of Monday's closing, the PTA spot trading market in East China is offering 11700 to 11750 yuan / ton, with a firm offer of 11650 to 11700 yuan / ton.
In addition, the PTA import ship market also has a high decline. The Taiwan cargo and bonded goods offer 1470 - 1480 US dollars / ton, the real offer is 1465 - 1470 US dollars / ton, the Korean goods offer is 1460 - 1470 US dollars / ton, the firm offer is roughly 1450 - 1455 dollars / ton.
Due to the fact that the downstream manufacturing enterprises have not yet started, and the crude oil continues to recalpate and the cotton price has dropped down after the high innovation, it is expected that the PTA will maintain a high oscillation trend in the short term.
After the Spring Festival holiday,
A tight supply market
It will intensify gradually and will last until the first half of 2011.
According to statistics, domestic PTA output averaged 1 million 300 thousand tons per month in 2010, and imports remained near 550 thousand tons.
In the second half of 2010, by the PTA factory overhaul, the supply of PTA on the market was reduced, while the domestic new polyester plant started, resulting in the tight supply pattern of PTA on the spot market.
This year, PTA is expected to add capacity of 4 million 400 thousand tons / year, mainly in the second half of the year.
In the 2010 to 2011, the downstream polyester plant was in the peak of capacity expansion, and the production capacity was mainly concentrated in the end of 2010 to the first half of 2011.
Polyester production capacity is expected to launch faster than the PTA launch, so the 2011 PTA capacity and polyester production capacity will be half a year's time difference, so the first half of this year PTA supply tensions will continue to intensify.
There is still a gap in the contract goods between 2 and May, and there is still a certain demand for replenishment in the spot market.
Judging from the development trend of supply and demand relationship, there is no fundamental change in the current situation of raw material profits. The new PET plant recently launched and put into operation makes the PTA spot market less stressful, and it is expected that the pattern of tight supply and demand in the market after the Spring Festival will continue.
Overall, the supply and demand fundamentals of the PTA market are still healthy. However, the spot market jumped 800 yuan / ton before and after the Spring Festival, which is larger than that of the downstream polyester products. In the short term, the demand for textile industry is still recovering, and the price of the products is also difficult to follow up for a time. Therefore, when the former market is facing high demand, it is not ruled out that the spot will be moderately down.
At present, the fundamentals of the PTA upstream and downstream are acceptable, but the support for the period price is weaker than that before the Spring Festival, and the US dollar index has picked up, and the crude oil price has been declining continuously.
After the first fifteen months of the lunar calendar, the company began to pay attention to the downstream recovery and suggested that the procurement strategy should be maintained.