Recently, the cotton main 09 contract broke through 33600 of the previous high, there has been a short-term adjustment.
The market is worried that the price of cotton will hit a record high in the near future and whether it will be weakened in the future.
The author believes that with the gradual evolution of the market and the gradual disclosure of basic information, the fundamentals of cotton will become clearer and the conditions for further uplink are fully realized.
Here, let me refute from the two Dali origin.
First of all,
The increase in prices has raised the planting area and suppressed it.
In the previous market, the main reason for the shortage of cotton is to worry about cotton prices and stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton so as to increase production and meet demand, thereby inhibiting cotton prices.
From my understanding of the situation, the main reason for the fact that the cotton planting area can not be substantially increased is that cotton cultivation is laborious and laborious and requires a lot of labor.
As China's labor costs continue to rise, the income of migrant workers is much higher than that of domestic farmers.
Take Henan Province as an example, after Foxconn moved to Henan, it will attract more than 150 thousand of the labor force, and the current wage level has reached 2000 yuan / month.
Cotton yields less than 1500 yuan per mu a year, which is more attractive than cotton planting.
At present, most of the people who grow cotton at home are old people. Their ability to increase their planting area is quite effective.
According to some recent surveys, the cotton planting Association of China has increased the intentional planting area by 9.8%, while the findings of the Cotton Research Institute increased by only 4.1%.
These data are basically in line with the scope of 5-10% estimated by the author before.
Even if the weather is favorable in China this year, it will be difficult to break through nearly 7 million 800 thousand tons of output in 2008.
Secondly, "high cotton price"
Form harm, inhibit demand. "
From the current data, the latest customs import and export data released in February 14th showed that textile exports in the whole country reached 8 billion 240 million US dollars in January, up 47% from 5 billion 580 million yuan in the same period last year.
This shows that the demand for products has also been restored as European and American countries gradually come out of the shadow of the financial crisis.
The export volume of US $8 billion 240 million has also reached a record high, which shows that the rising cost of cotton is better conductive to downstream consumption.
The problem of excessive appreciation of Renminbi, which has always been worried, can not restrain cotton consumption.
At least exports showed no signs of slowing down.
On the other hand, according to the statistics of the author, after the adjustment of cotton prices in November, the price of cotton yarn dropped more than the decline of cotton prices, which reduced the profit margins of enterprises.
After the recent rise in cotton prices, the bargaining power of enterprises increased. After the Spring Festival, the yarn price rose more than that of spot cotton, making the profit level of enterprises improved.
Therefore, under the high cotton price, it is not an unsolved problem for enterprises with cost pfer capability.
Two major problems, from the uncertainty of supply and demand in two aspects, are gradually clear in the recent market data released.
At least 2 million tons of cotton consumption should be supplemented by imports relative to the domestic cotton consumption of over 10 million tons.
Imported cotton prices have broken through the 36000 mark, and imported inflation is grim.
From the recent main positions of Zheng cotton, the net number of the first ten main players has been maintained at around 20 thousand hands, indicating that the main funds continue to see more aftermarket.
After this wave of adjustment, 09 Zheng cotton will continue to catch up with the import cost of high up, 36000 yuan may not be far away.