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Looking For Security Stocks From The Perspective Of Absolute Value

2011/8/22 9:38:00 29

The market tends to go up.

Dragons and fishes jumbled together

Some companies that lack basic support tend to perform well, and some companies' expectations of asset restructuring are often the main force.

Fund speculation

Emphasis.

But once the market is adjusted, the quality of the company will become the main reason that affects its performance. Just as the saying goes, "when the market is strong, the quality will fall." the company with absolute high value is expected to become the mainstream of the rebound in the strong market.

In recent years, we can see the trend of the market.

Performance difference

Companies are becoming the focus of selling, and companies that value or have relatively higher investment value have become the darling of market pursuit. In the future market trend, value investment is still expected to become the mainstream of the market.

Investment concept

。

If the market moves into adjustment, it is necessary to seek safer investment varieties from the perspective of absolute investment value.

From the company's net assets to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and so on, it should be seen that either pricing model has some shortcomings.

In the recent market, we also see that according to the Black - Scholes model (B-S model) of option pricing, Baoshan Iron and Steel warrants are far from the actual price.

The gap between the CAPM model and the effective market theory (EMH) and the reality also led to the emergence of behavioral finance and the behavioral asset pricing model (BAPM).

However, no matter how the model is based, the company's stock price fluctuates around its intrinsic value fluctuations. Even if there is a long time deviation, the deviation will not be too long in the long run.

Judging from the intrinsic value of the company, the following methods can be used as the basis for judgement.

The first is the reset value of the company.

Some companies' assets such as land, housing and so on often do not take into account the impact of inflation when pricing, and some mechanical fixed assets will also accelerate depreciation due to technological progress.

The company's replacement value can be used as an important reference index for the company's intrinsic value. Because of the availability of data, the company's book net assets are often taken as the replacement value of the company.

The gap between company reset value and the market value of a company can be regarded as an intangible asset of a company.

Such as the company's technological superiority, brand value, monopoly resources and so on.

If a company's stock price deviates from the reset value too far, in the long run, value return is an inevitable trend.

The ratio between replacement value and market value can be expressed by TobinQ.

In addition, the company's profitability is judged from the company's profitability. The value of equity is the discount value of future cash flow.

The DCF model (dividend discount model) has been criticized for its lack of accurate estimation of future cash flows, but it is undeniable that DCF's internal thinking is beyond reproach.

The future dividend payout and return on investment in the DCF model are the key points to consider.

Under the guidance of this idea, we choose the company with relatively high absolute value from the perspective of company growth, dynamic PE and PB.

Eliminate

Companies with year-on-year decline in performance, companies with lower performance figures and companies with downward inflection points in the industry boom.