RMB Early Market Strengthened Slightly, Market Anticipates New Stimulation

The yuan rose slightly against the US dollar on Monday, but it was slightly lower than the central parity of RMB and fell below the 6.14 pass.

Traders pointed out that there was a lack of sense of direction in the early market, and the trading area was also narrower, which followed the direction of customers. The parties waited for the new stimulus to break the current calm market conditions.

Traders pointed out that the operation volume of the big banks has been significantly reduced recently, and the demand for buying foreign exchange from passenger exchanges has also declined. The actual trading is relatively light, and the actual fluctuation of the entire disk is only about 20 points.

A city trader said, "this position is very embarrassing now. It can go up and down, but there is no situation where one side overtakes the other side. Everyone is waiting for a big change in the peripheral market, or the central bank's further intervention measures."

Last week's five round of offshore RMB in

Under the strong and fast downward 6.22 points, the offshore renminbi and domestic spot spreads widened to about 80 points. However, after the US dollar pullback, the offshore renminbi exchange rate rebounded rapidly.

The price difference between the two places almost disappeared on Monday morning.

Traders said,

The cost of shorting the renminbi is relatively high. If there is not a larger profit margin, the parties are still relatively cautious. At present, the trend of empty renminbi is not a special advantage, so once there is short-term earnings, the mood of profit making is higher.

China's exchange rate reform has attracted much attention, which may become the key point affecting the RMB exchange rate trend this year.

Treasury Secretary Jacob said last Friday that US Treasury Secretary, Mr. Ruben, urged China to adopt more market determined exchange rates when he visited China on Monday.

The Obama administration believes that a further appreciation of the renminbi will help the global economy.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said on Sunday that this year there is hope for a more thorough clearance of the foreign exchange control regulations.

In terms of the new rules, China can basically achieve convertibility of capital account.

In the global market, the US dollar rose against the yen and the euro on Monday, after the chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED) Yellen emphasized the view that the Fed could start raising interest rates later this year.

At 12:40 Beijing time, the US dollar was RMB 6.2123 yuan against the yuan, and it received 6.2167 yuan on the previous day.

Today, the median price of US dollar to RMB is 6.1402 yuan, and the middle price of the previous day is 6.1397 yuan.

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"Although I am a scholar, I should not speculate, but my guess is that the renminbi will become SDR currency this year."

Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution's global economic and development project, has boldly predicted that the renminbi will become an integral part of the world monetary fund (IMF)'s special drawing rights (SDR) package this year.

Eswar Prasad said that the renminbi is becoming a widely used international currency.

At the end of this year, when IMF is reviewing the SDR basket, if China keeps the liberalization of interest rates and expands the floating range of the RMB against the US dollar, it will be difficult for IMF to refuse to include Renminbi in a basket of currencies.

IMF the current SDRs include US dollars, euros, Japanese yen and sterling. Every five years, it reviews the composition of the SDR package currency. 2015 is the year of IMF review.

Outside estimates, this year's renminbi is included in the list of SDRs' package currencies.

"Not China needs IMF, but IMF needs China."

Eswar Prasad said that in view of the fact that the IMF governance reform was obstructed by the US Congress, allowing the renminbi to become a special drawing right currency could make China feel more secure in the interests of IMF.

"This will become an unprecedented event: an unconvertible currency becomes the SDR package currency.

If this is not happening this year, I think IMF will conduct the next audit in two to three years. "