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The Raw Material Ends Are Confusing. Polyester Chip Market Will Be The Main Melody.

2019/4/15 12:19:00 12497

Recently, during the Qingming holiday, the explosion of the three aromatic hydrocarbon plant in Central China, the spot price of PX rose day by day, and in addition to the 4-5 month PTA overhaul news, last week, although ethylene glycol was weak due to the high inventory of the port, PTA futures were on the high side. The polyester chip market experienced a small cycle of ups and downs with the potential raw material terminal. The dynamic trend of raw materials will directly affect the dynamic trend of the polyester chip market.

chart 28-29 Price and profit trend of PET chips in 2007

Source: lung Chung

Polyester chips show concussion

After the end of March and the beginning of April, the polyester market experienced a decline in the manufacturing value-added tax from the April date. After 4 months, polyester chips were affected by various cost and information levels, and experienced a trend of falling, rising and stabilizing. On the return of holiday, the spot price of PX rose after the explosion of Formosa aromatics three factory on holiday. In addition, the impact of PTA overhaul in PTA month, PTA futures concussion rose sharply, and downstream sliced textiles and traders concentrated on getting goods. So that polyester production and marketing in April 8th is as high as 4%. Slicing production and sales are also as high as 3%. The atmosphere of trading is improving rapidly. However, as the Hengli PTA maintenance device was restarted, the futures market resumed calm. As a result of the early overdraft in the downstream market, the production and sales of the polyester chip market basically recovered to around 5. Polyester chip enterprises inventory is low, many manufacturers and downstream market wait-and-see mentality increased. Downstream demand is weak. Up to now, the mainstream of the semi light section in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 79 yuan / ton, and the mainstream is 8 yuan / ton. Weekly average price of 796 yuan / ton,.35% higher than the ring. PET chip profit 374.46 yuan / ton, up 8.28%.

Significant differences in raw material ends

chart 228-29 year PTA Price trend of ethylene glycol

Source: lung Chung

The recent performance of PTA and ethylene glycol, which is the key raw material for polyester, is quite different. As of April 2nd, domestic PTA processing fees averaged 27.6 yuan / ton, and weekly average profit was 662.45 yuan / ton. 4-5 months PTA maintenance information centralization, PTA in such a high profit to accelerate the progress of repair, Yanda 3 million 750 thousand tons, down 5 after the restoration of stable operation; Hengli Petrochemical entered the repair in March 28th, the original plan for 5 days, is now heating up in April 8th to restart. Tong Kun's 220 thousand ton plant entered maintenance for 2 days in March 8th. PTA operating rate at 83.2%, an increase of 4.25 percentage points, PTA spot price closed at 665 yuan / ton, the price rose.6%. Comparing the trend of ethylene glycol in recent years, ethylene glycol has been boosted slightly by the rise of PTA, but because of the high storage capacity of the dock is still an important factor to suppress the market, inventory is still difficult to digest. High inventory continued pressure market, late trading at 4745 yuan / ton.

Polyester chip market narrowly arranged or become the main melody

After entering April, the polyester spot market mentality gradually improved, and more willingness to see. The specific analysis is as follows:

(cost), the cost of 4-5 months PTA factory overhaul more market, PTA market volatility is strong, the same period PX prices downward, although the short-term platform explosion market has improved, but from the overall supply and demand situation, continues to rise space is limited. At present, PTA production profits are rising. The support of the raw material is more obvious, and the market of polyester chips is not big enough.

(2) polyester enterprises, at present, the low inventory of polyester chip enterprises, high start-up, high profit and low inventory will be the main theme of the polyester chip market at this stage.

(3) downstream slicing and terminal market, the national loom comprehensive boot rate is 78.87%, the ring ratio increased by.3 percentage points. Most enterprises mainly produce conventional dominant varieties, and their production enthusiasm is better. But the new deal is limited. The order of the downstream sliced spinning is almost the same as in previous years, while the cost side support has been strengthened. The demand for overlay in April has slightly improved, and the export of light chips is optimistic in the first half of 4.

As a whole, the market status of the polyester chip market is improving, mainly in the late PX profit or in the downstream PTA and polyester market. However, whether the PTA device repair is on schedule or not is the main concern of the polyester market and industry. If the market rebounding is high or limited, if there is optimism, there will be a round of spot inflation, but the possibility of continuous increase is unlikely. Polyester chips in the short term or still narrow.