In Summer, PTA Upward Resistance Becomes Smaller.

Not enough for the full moon, PTA prices have ushered in a round of upsurge, so amazing, we do not dare to ask.

chart 16 month PTA The price chart

Source: lung Chung

The PTA market is always pleasantly surprised, and the June PTA is even more interesting. From the beginning of the month, the price of 5440 yuan rose to 5920 yuan, or 8.82 percentage points. First of all, concerns about international trade risks and high oil production in the US cost the side of the cost side. PTA prices follow the downtrend. Secondly, the positive signals of international speech release, trade risk mitigation, price rise, and promote the downstream polyester production and marketing to usher in a hot situation, the rise of PTA fuse was drawn. Subsequently, the mainstream suppliers limited the shipping market, and the capital side speculation, futures prices continued to rise, the spot base maintained high, the price was high. During the period, although the price futures prices moved down, the overall volatility of the spot market was relatively limited. As of June 21st, the PTA spot market price was 5920 yuan.

surface 15-7 month PTA Supply and demand balance sheet

Unit: 10000 tons

In June, the overhaul of the PTA market was more than planned, the main processing fees were good, and the factories had the phenomenon of over negative production. However, under the high temperature weather, some of the installations were temporarily malfunctioning and the number of short stops was too high, resulting in a marked decline in output and start-up in June. Jiangyin Han BANG 2 million 200 thousand tons, Tong Kun Jiaxing 1 million 500 thousand tons, Taiwan 1 million 200 thousand tons, Peng Wei Petrochemical 900 thousand tons, Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand tons, Yizheng chemical fiber 650 thousand tons, Ya Dong Petrochemical 750 thousand ton plant all appeared in this month short stop and restart, Sichuan can invest 1 million ton temporary parking, is expected to be restarted in the near future heating, Yanda grand 2 million 250 thousand tons device due to steam problem reduced load 5, no definite recovery time. According to long Zhong information estimates, the PTA composite load started near 82.9% in June, and the output is expected to be 3 million 610 thousand tons in June. The load of the polyester plant remains at a high level, and most of the early production is expected to be postponed. In addition, the overall production and sales performance is hot, and the inventory has dropped sharply, resulting in the steady demand for rigid demand. The PTA inventory shows the pattern of getting rid of the stock.

July will also be a month of more changes. The situation of typhoons can not be predicted. However, the coming of high temperature weather does not exclude the phenomenon that PTA devices continue to be overloaded or short stopped. Fuhai's 4 million 500 thousand ton plant is facing overhaul in early July, and there are still many uncertainties about the outstanding Hang Li line 1. However, the overall operation of the downstream polyester plants is relatively optimistic, and rigid demand remains. Therefore, it is estimated that the PTA market will remain in the market in July, and the market price will remain at a high level. We should pay close attention to the macro aspect and the change of crude oil in the future market.