The TDI Plant Of Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park Is Resumed. By 2021, China's MDI Net Profit Will Reach 7 Billion 200 Million.

The Limited by Share Ltd of the Wanhua chemical group, the largest MDI manufacturing enterprise in the Asia Pacific region (hereinafter referred to as "Wanhua chemical") issued a notice in the evening of July 15th. The MDI integrated device of the Yantai Industrial Park (600 thousand tons / year) began to stop and repair in June 21st. Up to now, the overhaul of the MDI plant has ended and its normal production has been resumed.

China Post securities analyst Cheng Yimin said that since the 2017 high point, Wanhua chemical leading products MDI prices continued downward, dragging down the company's performance is not expected at the stage, but the observation, MDI price further downward space is limited, maintain the short-term price shocks strong judgment, no need to be too pessimistic, because:

1, at present, the price of aggregated MDI and pure MDI are near the bottom of 2005. Considering the rigid support of production cost, the price continues to descend very limited.

2, MDI can be used to produce soft foam, hard foam, paint and so on. The downstream demand is closely related to fridge, refrigerator, building materials and automobiles. In summer, the consumption season of fridge freezer is strong, driving the MDI price stage strong, and the latter is accompanied by the marginal improvement of the macro-economy. Building materials and cars are also expected to support the MDI price recovery, but the rhythm needs to be observed.

Market observers Yang Lin here, looking forward to the two quarter, the domestic and international device maintenance frequently, Shanghai coss set up 500 thousand tons of equipment in May there is a maintenance plan, East Cao Ruian 70 thousand tons MDI rectification device early April plan to overhaul 20 days, Shanghai Lian Heng two phase 240 thousand ton device will be April 10th to June 3rd parking maintenance, while a 350 thousand ton / year device will be in May 10th to June 3rd parking maintenance. Overseas, South Korea Kumho Mitsui 350 thousand tons MDI plant is expected to start in May 8th for a month of maintenance, East Cao 400 thousand tons of equipment in May also exist maintenance plan. Recent companies, BASF and other manufacturers to implement limited supply strategy, and in April began to know that 30% of the MDI devices will enter the parking inspection mode, so we can judge that the two quarter of MDI prices are expected to continue to warm up.

Founder Securities researcher Li Yonglei believes that as a leader in global technology and capacity in the field of MDI, Wanhua chemical has 2 million 100 thousand tons of MDI annual capacity, and global capacity accounts for 24.85%. In the next three years, the company will continue to expand its capacity advantage and is expected to expand its capacity to at least 1 million 300 thousand tons. The third cycle is very fast, so it brings more new capacity. In the next 2019-2020 years, the global capacity of MDI is expected to increase by 90 and 1 million 450 thousand tons respectively. In 2021, the world will still plan to add 400 thousand tons of MDI capacity. Judging from this, the actual progress of new production capacity may be lower than the planning progress, and it is estimated that the new MDI capacity in the next 2019-2021 years will be 50, 65 and 800 thousand tons respectively. As the world's old small capacity accounted for 47%, and this year will have 600 thousand tons of capacity to run 15 years, overhaul frequency increases, reduce operating rate. In the future, the new capacity will be overloaded and overhauled. It is estimated that the global MDI operating rate will decline in the next three years, 74%, 76% and 75% respectively. It is expected that the tight balance between supply and demand will continue in the third round of the cycle. Wanhua will take the dual drive of cost reduction and capacity expansion to enhance profitability. It is estimated that in 2021, Wanhua's MDI business profit center will be 7 billion 700 million yuan, and the net profit of 80% will remain above 7 billion 200 million yuan.