The Fundamentals Are Not Good. Dacron Staple Is Afraid To Fall Below 7000 Yuan / Ton.

This week, international oil prices continue to fall, resulting in polyester industry chain market confidence is difficult to boost. Of course, the polyester staple market is no exception. Although the price of PET staple has been falling for 1 months or so, the market price is at a low level. However, due to the fact that the terminal orders are still not improving, there is no obvious support for the raw material ends. The price is temporarily difficult to reverse, and the market price is afraid to fall below 7000 yuan / ton.

Cost support is limited in the short run.

After entering a few trading days in August, the price of raw materials PX continued to plummet. PTA also dropped from 6612 to about 5140 now, breaking the trend of 5000 points. At present, the PTA device restarts and overhauls coexist, and the start-up load is maintained near 95%. However, due to the weakness of the cost end and the uncertainty of the macro environment, the PTA price is expected to remain weak and weak.

In terms of ethylene glycol, after a big downturn, the demand for storage and repair, coupled with the long-term downturn of downstream polyester, the overall production and sales volume has been heavy. However, the support for ethylene glycol is limited, and the industry lacks confidence. Generally speaking, short term cost support for polyester staple is limited.

Industry profits or improvement

From the profit point of view, as of 6 days, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to 313 yuan / ton, compared with that in July 22nd, it dropped by 921 yuan / ton. From the August decline, PTA is larger than polyester staple fiber, upstream PTA or polyester product.

As of yesterday, the profit of PTA, PET staple and polyester filament POY decreased by 900 yuan / ton, up 47 yuan / ton, up 363 yuan / ton, PTA profits in the industrial chain decreased sharply, polyester end picked up, of course, including polyester staple fiber.

There is no good news on demand side.

The yarn Market in August is still in the traditional demand off-season, the yarn enterprises have fewer orders, the enterprises' "downhill" and "low-priced" yarn prices fall slightly.

At the same time, the inventory rate is rising gradually, and enterprises are hard to bear the pressure of capital pressure. With the deepening of the off-season, the high temperature holiday has become a helpless choice for some enterprises. The production and production enterprises are increasing. The pressure of traders on short-term shipment is bigger. They need to wait for news and positive factors to stimulate.

As of 7, the price of pure polyester yarn has been reduced, 45s sales are still good, polyester staple fiber prices have been temporarily stable, and the central price is about 7550 yuan / ton.

To sum up, the cost side is not good support in the short term, or drag on the polyester staple market, and the continued downturn in demand side is even worse. Therefore, according to the author's view, the price of polyester staple fiber in the short term is still falling, or the possibility of falling below 7000. (source: business community, China Keqiao textile index)