Forecast And Analysis Of The Price Of Seed Cotton In Xinjiang Ginning Factory In 2019/20

In the middle and late 8 months, cotton boll opening and boll opening in most parts of the eastern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang were mainly carried out in the middle part of the world, and the cotton picking cotton was expected to pick up and sell in mid September. In the past month, the cotton spot market is really not giving up. Zheng cotton CF1909 has broken 12000 yuan per ton in recent months. In the 2018/19 year, the "double 29" Xinjiang machine picking cotton regulation has not only tried 12800 yuan / ton, but also has a "double 29" Southern hand picking cotton 13000-13100 yuan / ton, and the phenomenon of "no price, no market, selling and buying" is outstanding. Therefore, the price of seed cotton will be opened at the price of 2019/20. Buy? Is the purchase price of 9-12 months high or low? This has aroused great concern and discussion among cotton growers, ginning mills, textile mills and investment institutions.

What price will the ginning factory of 2019/20 scale? The author believes that the trend of cotton prices in the late August to late September is still the market vane, and the acquisition of ginning plants must be based on the current price, not blindly and regardless of cost and profit and loss.

From the perspective of adequate supply of cotton in 8-9 months, some cotton related enterprises have great pressure to sell and repay money, and cotton grows better in 2019. The yield is relatively ideal or the difficulties in Sino US trade negotiations are difficult and good. It is not easy to cash in the good trade. The probability of the CF2001 contract breaking before the breakthrough is 12610 yuan / ton, and the short sword is 12000 yuan / ton, while the bull and the capital will be forced to close to 12000 yuan / ton. The strength and the strength of the troops are all great. The author estimates that Zheng will usher in the new cotton market in the range of 12000-12500 yuan / ton, and it may open 12000 yuan / ton instantly, but it will soon be pulled back. There is also no strong impetus to stabilize and rebound during the 9-10 months. Considering that the price difference between the CF1909 contract in 2019 and the "double 28" Southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton is about 800-900 yuan / ton, so the new cotton or Chen cotton will be smoothly integrated into 12800-13300 yuan / ton, and the price is 13200-13700 yuan / ton of lint gross weight, plus the factors such as the pickup, premium and civilian cotton "tasting" and so on. The upper limit of the purchase cost of the cotton can be increased to 14000 yuan / ton.

So what's the price of 14000 yuan / ton of lint cost corresponding to the seed cotton purchase price? By the middle of August, the purchase price of cotton seeds in the territory was 0.95-0.98 yuan / Jin. According to the year's situation, the price of cottonseed and cotton had not fluctuated in 8-9 months. Therefore, the takeover price of 40% clothes split seed picking cotton was 2.90-2.95 yuan / Jin; in some parts of Bachu and Akesu, the price of cotton mill was concentrated, seed cotton resources were insufficient or 40% lint seed cotton opened and weighing up to 3.00-3.10 yuan / Jin, but the phenomenon of water miscellaneous competition was more common. 。