Jujube Limit! Shanghai Silver Limit! Cotton Rise And Stop Can Not Hold, How Far Can Many Heads Go?

September 6th (Friday), domestic commodity futures mostly fell, the risk of varieties fell sharply, Shanghai and silver fell down, Shanghai gold fell more than 3%, and most of the agricultural products fell, only cotton rose more than 2%, soybean meal fell to more than 3%, soybean meal fell more than 3%, soybean meal fell more than 2%, eggs, apples and soybean oil fell more than 1%; color differentiation, Shanghai nickel tail diving plunged more than 4%, Shanghai copper rose more than 1%, black line was floating green, iron ore fell nearly 4%, iron ore fell nearly 4%, hot volume fell more than 2%, thread fell close to 2%, and the crude oil rose more than 2%.

　　 Red jujube closed at noon today. The policy of trust city and the influence of more rain in late Southern Xinjiang have brought about a sharp rise in jujube futures recently. However, the market policy will only increase the cost of jujube, not support the price of red dates, and if there is no continuous large rainfall in the later stage, the output of jujube will be basically the same as that of last year, and the decline in commodity rate will be limited. Taking into account the current situation of the disk, due to the larger profits of spot delivery, the price of jujube futures is overestimated, and the probability of late downlink is larger.

On the whole, there has been some disaster weather in southern Xinjiang this year, but the scope is not large. Researchers in the exchanges with local enterprises and jujube farmers learned that every year there will be similar weather in southern Xinjiang. The disaster weather this year is not more than that in previous years. Therefore, the red jujube output this year will not change much compared with that of last year. As for the weather factors such as rainfall, it will cause the reduction of commodity rate of red jujube objectively, and indirectly push up the price of red dates. But in the face of the huge output base of jujube, this effect can be digested by the market.

In the short term, before jujube trees and jujube futures warehouse receipts have not been registered, the price of red dates will not continue to go up under the influence of market sentiment. But considering the fact that the red dates industry is oversupply, and the price delivery of the futures disk has good profit, the price of red date futures is difficult to continue.

Cotton was stimulated by news yesterday, once rushed to the limit, but the intention to seal the plate was not strong. It seemed that the dragons and dragons were in general, and they encountered a strong backlash in the air. The final settlement price had not been maintained.

The biggest gap between supply and marketing is 15/16, followed by 16/17, and by the year of 17/18, the gap between global supply and marketing is getting smaller. With the continuous dumping of China, the global social stock is increasing, and the circulation of resources is very abundant. In the three consecutive year, the planting area has reached the high and high yield. The output of the year has gradually been able to meet the consumption. In the last two years, the storage and storage has made the global stock of the society abundant. In addition, due to the Sino US trade war and the downward pressure on the economy, the global consumption has continued to decline, from the original increment of 1 million to the gradual reduction of -45 million tons, and there is still room for further reduction. This makes the 18/19 year more relaxed. If the planting area is kept high, the planting area is kept high, the weather is normal, the weather is normal, and the output will continue to increase by 1 million 400 thousand, then the supply pressure will increase tomorrow. Cotton Hong Kong goddess hung hung: from the global supply and demand table can

　　 The latest survey in August:

Domestic overcapacity, survival of the fittest, enter the shuffle and eliminate backward production capacity.

Sino US trade war is a long cycle. Industrial transfer has reached an urgent stage. It must be chosen. It will be a long cycle in the future.

It is a strategic choice for many large enterprises to reduce costs, increase efficiency, improve quality and efficiency, and update intelligent equipment. Some big factories have put in 100 thousand intelligent new equipment with spindles.

The peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even more light. Survival is the absolute principle. Stopping production and holidays is a new normal.

Because of the frequent fluctuations of raw materials and the lack of orders, we generally take stock of compressed raw materials. We usually take the strategy of buying and selling according to the circumstances. Some factories which have good inventory management and operation have only 10 days' inventory cycle.

Textile enterprises are willing to solve the problem of raw materials through the current base price channel, because it is the cheapest, except for national cotton and imported cotton.

The production of high count yarn is less and the blended yarn becomes more numerous. 32, the 40 yarns become the most important areas. In the long run, we must first take quality first and get rid of different competitive advantages.

Yarn and textile stocks are high, and the warehouse is very slow. Tight funds, slow returns, confusion of yarn prices.

This year's acquisition of enterprises is the first step in controlling risks in the acquisition process.

　 Recent market judgement: In the short term, the rebounding, the emergence of more profits, the Sino US call to be met in October, the domestic macroeconomic policy to reduce interest rates, stimulate market easing, and the new flower listed purchase price is relatively stable. The new cotton price is expected to be 11700-12200 interval, or about 12000, and the bottom space of Zheng Mian is also limited, about 1000 points. This is expected to rebound to 13000-13500, not optimistic about the progress of Sino US negotiations, but we should also pay attention to the substantive and favorable policies of the acquisition and storage, but look at it for a long time.

　　 Shenyang Wanguo futures commodity analyst Dr. Qiu Qinwei The current September is the last period before new cotton picking. At this time, if any weather disaster happens, it will have a serious impact on cotton. Therefore, cotton price may include a risk premium at this time. On the other hand, China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level Sino US economic and trade consultations in Washington at the beginning of October, after which the two sides will maintain close communication. We believe that the October consultation will be conducive to the stability of market confidence, and the subsequent introduction of policies such as lowering interest rates and lowering interest rates will also help stabilize consumption. The negative news has basically been released in the early days, and it is hard to imagine worse bad in the short term. If there are some positive factors, even a very short-term impact, it may lead to rapid repair of disk prices. Therefore, cotton prices may have a relatively strong trend during this period.

But with the November new cotton market listing, the pressure of new cotton supply and Chen cotton inventory will be superimposed together. The inventory of cotton ginning plants is generally large, and the downward trend of cotton prices has reduced their willingness to buy Cotton in the past year. Cotton farmers, after all, have policy subsidies. Seed cotton is not preserved for a long time, and prices are easy to go down. The cost of new cotton is going down and demand is hard to improve, so cotton prices may be down again at the end of the year.

　　 Huaan futures analyst He Meng Thanks to the news of the call from the Sino US economic and trade group, the main contract of Zhengyang cotton has been trading at a time recently, but the kinetic energy is insufficient, and then down again. At present, Sino US trade theme is still an important factor in the cotton market transactions, traders are more sensitive. From the basic point of view, cotton is growing well this year, and large-scale pickings are about to take place. Meanwhile, the weather factor does not bring more benefits to cotton. At the same time, most cotton enterprises in Xinjiang still have a large number of cotton stocks that have not yet been sold, and the supply pressure will continue to increase after the new cotton market is superimposed on the old cotton stocks. Secondly, the selling of national stores is still in progress. Recently, with the slight increase in cotton prices, the turnover rate has improved, and the dumping will continue until the end of September. Before that, there is no shortage of cotton in the market. Finally, although China and the United States will hold talks in Washington on October, the abolition of tariffs on cotton related products will be difficult to achieve in the short term, which will inhibit the export of cotton products to the United States and weaken the demand for cotton.

The risk points for follow-up attention are:

After three years of large-scale inventory, the current stock of cotton reserves has dropped to below 3 million tons.

This year is the last year of cotton target price subsidies in Xinjiang, and the trend of new cotton policy is also worthy of attention.

The trade relationship between China and the United States is in short order, and the short-term impact on the price of the cotton market is quite large.

In the short term, cotton will be dominated by low volatility, supported by the theme of Sino US trade negotiations, and the price will be supported. However, weak demand and high supply pressure will still inhibit the upper space.

Guotai Junan Futures analyst Liu Xiaoyin: China and the United States will launch a new round of negotiations to boost the news, overnight ICE cotton December contract rose. At home, entering the peak season of consumption, textile orders have improved slightly, but the trade war has not yet been resolved, the downstream market is not enough confidence, the spinning mill yarn is mainly stocking, and the raw materials are purchased with the purchase. The supply side sees that due to the high cost performance, the reserve cotton transaction has maintained a high level, and the warehouse cotton has been accelerating outflow. There are about million tons of cotton sold for sale this year, and the market entry policy has not yet been introduced. It is estimated that the domestic cotton output is flat or slightly higher than that of last year, and the price of seed cotton scale has been significantly lower than that of last year, further reducing the price of Chen cotton. To sum up, the pattern of oversupply has not changed yet, and the middle and long term zhengmian 2001 contract will continue to be weak. Domestic expected rate cut is expected to be favorable with the progress of the trade negotiations. The short run of the market will take advantage of the long term capital, and the speculators can temporarily leave the field to wait and see; the spot inventory can appropriately reduce the value of the guarantee according to the progress of the sale, and traders will hedge against each other's rebate according to their own cost. Zheng cotton 2001 contract support level 12200 yuan / ton, pressure level 13200 yuan / ton.