Saudi Oil Facilities Attacked Oil Prices Rose PX Price Linkage

First, Event background description

According to foreign media reports, around 8 a.m. Beijing time in September 14th, Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco was located in Abqaiq's largest global crude oil processing center and the second largest oil field in the world, and Khurais was made up of 10 UAVs. Group fire, which led to multiple fires, is now under control. Yemen's Hu se army has claimed responsibility for the attack. For security reasons, Saudi Arabia has temporarily closed down. Five hundred Million barrels / Daily crude oil production capacity. Saudi Arabia claims that the capacity will be affected. Nine month Sixteen It resumed on the day, but many reports showed that the full recovery of its capacity may take longer. In response to this incident, the United States said it was ready to use strategic reserves at any time to prevent the supply gap in Saudi Arabia from giving a shock to the global oil market. Saudi Arabia also said it would use its crude oil stock to ensure that crude oil exports were not affected this week.

Two. Impact of events on PX prices

The crude oil treatment plant in Abqaiq is processed and transferred to Saudi Arabia for nearly 70% of the crude oil production. Khurais oilfield is Saudi Arabia's domestic Top3 oil field. Oil prices rose sharply on Monday, and Brent's oil price broke through $67 / pail. And drive PTA The prices of chemical products such as glycol and ethylene increased, and polyester prices rose. Two hundred element / About 30 tons. PX Price rises 30-40 Dollar. So the attack is right. PX Does the device have any effect?

Saudi Arabia PX Device statistics

Ten thousand tons / year

Long Zhong information statistics, at present, Saudi Arabia has 3 sets of PX devices, it is understood that the attack on the comprehensive processing center of crude oil is located in Saudi Arabia Abqaiq, the oil field is located in Khurais, two bases without PX device, Saudi Arabia's PX production has not been affected by UAV attack. But because of the large oil price increase and the linkage of the whole polyester industry chain, it is bound to cause the PX price to rise. What is the impact of the attack on the PX market? How will the PX market be interpreted in the future?

Three. PX market mentality survey

Figure 1 PX industry psychology survey (the impact of this event on PX price)

As can be seen from the above picture, because the Saudi Arabia encountered the biggest attack in ten years, the market is almost unanimously optimistic that this event will open up the upstream channel, the sharp rise of the cost side and the timely follow-up of the demand side are the important factors to support the PX price rise.

Figure 2 psychology survey of PX industry in the coming week (PX price increase)

In the coming week, the majority of market participants believe that the PX will continue to rise sharply, and the good news from Saudi Arabia will continue for some time. Most of the view is that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity may not be able to recover quickly, and the damaged devices need repair time. The cost side will be supported, and the PX price will continue to rise.

Figure 3 PX industry psychology survey (PX rally duration)

Most believe that the international PX price rise will continue for 3-6 days, because Saudi Arabia is actively restoring supply, the United States will also release SPR into options, the impact of this attack may not last for a long time, the cost side of crude oil price rise is limited. There are also many points of view that the PX rally will last for 1-2 weeks, because the emotional disturbance caused by the attacks may continue to ferment. Saudi Arabia also needs a certain time to repair plant installations and restore production capacity. The oil price at the cost end will continue to be high, supporting the PX market.

Four. Market psychology survey sample

This PX market psychology survey sample description: the total number of samples is 20, including 10 production enterprises, 1 trade enterprises, 4 matching enterprises, 3 terminal enterprises, 2 financial enterprises, and collate and analyze them.