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Domestic Crude Oil Futures Opened And Closed, Chemical Fiber Raw Materials Are Rising, But Will Eventually Return To Reason.

2019/9/17 15:50:00 0

Chemical Fiber Raw Material

In September 14th, a group of ten UAVs attacked two important oil installations in Saudi Arabia and caused fires, affecting Saudi Arabia's output of about 5000000 barrels per day. Cheap UAVs have stirred up the situation in the Middle East and caused a fatal blow to the global oil supply.

On Monday morning, 16 days, the domestic commodity futures market opened, and the main contract of crude oil futures closed down, breaking the new high to 477.5 yuan / barrel since May 23rd. All products related to crude oil are rising all the way. The raw material of textile chemical fiber is a downstream product of petroleum, which is highly relative to the price of crude oil. PTA ended the concussion between 5000-5200 points in more than a month and opened up to 5328. Glycol has lost a small increase of patience, opening up in one step, direct trading. All quotations for polyester can't wait to raise 100 yuan / ton.

Price rise is both an opportunity and a challenge.

01

Prices are rising and production and sales are good.

The mentality of buying or selling will start to play a role at this time. The price of raw materials has been low in the early stage. The early grey mills are all kinds of complaints, and they claim that they will not buy raw materials in the near future. But with the price of crude oil igniting the textile raw material market, production and sales rapidly recovered, reaching 260%. Taking a careful look at the market, trucks carrying raw materials on the road are much more than usual today.

It can be seen that some weaving factories have started to buy raw materials in large quantities, so as not to increase the price of raw materials in the future market. Moreover, there are already some raw materials manufacturers on the market have begun to sell, but the price of raw materials is rising.

For many weaving factories, the rising price of raw materials is not entirely a bad thing. Most of the fabric shops in the market are stored in grey cloth inventory for about 39 days, about -40 days, and most of them are woven at low prices of raw materials. At present, the capacity of crude oil is limited and the price increase is known worldwide. The end market is also willing to accept the fact that grey cloth is rising. If we sell grey cloth according to the price of raw materials, we will get many "windfalls".

02

Slow up, accelerating inventory

Although Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity is affected by about 5000000 barrels, it actually accounts for only 5% of the world's daily crude oil output. Saudi officials also expressed their views at the weekend, hoping to resume the normal daily production of crude oil to 9 million 800 thousand barrels next Monday, September 16th. Within a few days, the production capacity will be normal. This shows that the destruction of the UAV attack is very limited.

More importantly, many importers of crude oil in China can completely reduce the impact of crude oil production by increasing the import volume of other countries. For example, the crude oil exports in the early period were limited, and China's crude oil imports from Iran decreased by 30% in the first half of the year. In order to eliminate the impact of the sharp decline in the import of crude oil in Iran, China's crude oil imports to Saudi Arabia increased by 84% in June compared with the same period last year.

The situation of supply less than demand will only appear in a short time, so the rise in crude oil price is only temporary. In other words, the price rise of textile raw materials is also limited. In particular, there is no substantial change in the overall textile terminal demand. The soaring raw materials will only create a "price free market" situation, which will return to rationality after the market.

Early stage is not only grey storage but also raw materials. Take PTA as an example, the current stock is the highest value in the whole year. Therefore, we should seize this "black swan" incident and speed up the inventory. If we hoarge goods at this time, we will miss an important opportunity to stock up a year ago. It's time to stay in stock, or cash.

Limited capacity of natural gas should not be ignored

01

China's demand for natural gas is booming.

The Saudi oil facility was attacked not only by about 5000000 barrels of crude oil per day, but also by 50% of natural gas production and 2 billion cubic metres of supply. The rapid reduction of natural gas production in the short term will have an impact on global natural gas prices.

China's demand for natural gas has been very large in recent years, especially in the previous years, "coal to gas" has been implemented in industry, and the demand for natural gas is expanding year by year. Consumption is expected to increase by 10% in 2019, reaching 310 billion cubic meters. But China's domestic output is limited and needs to rely heavily on imports.

02

Textile industry is highly dependent on natural gas.

"Coal to gas" project also involves the textile industry, after several years of efforts, the textile industry chain from weaving to printing and dyeing, and then finishing, basically can not see the figure of coal, instead of clean and clean natural gas. But China's natural gas supply is insufficient, and occasionally there will be insufficient use of natural gas. In particular, in the 2017-2018 winter, the "coal to gas" project began to be implemented in large areas, resulting in overlapping heating in winter, resulting in serious shortage of natural gas supply.

At that time, the textile industry in order to give way to "residents gas", a large number of production and production restrictions, the size of the textile mill capacity is severely limited, and even released some factories to use coal restrictions, once affected the "coal to gas" process. Now the time point is good for the heating season, and the demand season for natural gas is coming. The output of Saudi Arabia's natural gas will drop greatly, and the price of natural gas will rise in the international market. It will also cause the import price of natural gas to rise in China, and ultimately affect the production cost of the textile industry.

On the whole, the rise in crude oil prices has limited impact on our textile industry. There is no bookings for terminal clothing orders, and the textile industry chain lacks the power to raise prices. The rising price of raw materials will only promote the short-term increase of downstream products, and will eventually follow the market to return to reason. It is natural gas production capacity decline can not be ignored, after all, the textile industry has been devastated by natural gas supply history is not long ago.

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