Tight Supply Of Acrylonitrile And Wait For The National Day Holiday

Before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of acrylonitrile market in China is not fluctuating, and the outlet price of East China ports is concentrated near 12500 yuan / ton. However, the market information was not calm. The two phase 260 thousand tons of new equipment in the state of Shandong was successfully delivered in September 8th. It is reported that qualified products have been produced. In addition, the price of raw propylene is affected by the attack of Saudi Crude Oil equipment. The price of propylene in the market is now approaching 8000 yuan / ton. The direct impact on acrylonitrile is the expected increase in supply and the increase in production costs. But when we look at it, the supply of acrylonitrile market is still tight, supporting businesses are strong, but the industry is looking at the market in October, and the market is still lacking in momentum.

Since September, the acrylonitrile market has shown a tight supply situation. On the one hand, the operators are looking at the new market after the new plant has been put into operation. Therefore, it is necessary to digest inventory and reduce the holding capacity in advance. On the other hand, SECCO's production losses exceed expected in Shanghai this month. In addition, the downstream ABS industry started to load up, and the Shandong Hai Jiang ABS device resumed. Therefore, since the beginning of September, the market supply performance has been tight, and downstream users have stocked demand before long holidays, thus supporting the market price rise in early days.

However, the price of acrylonitrile increased abruptly after the news of the two phase of the September 8th smooth release. Although there are no large quantities of products entering the market at present, the tight supply situation has not yet been changed. However, the anticipation of future supply growth has been ahead of the market mentality. After the smooth operation of the two phase of the two period, the supply will be increased by at least 20 thousand tons per month. In addition, the Shandong sea river is also planned to be restarted in October. In addition to the use of ABS, the supply of acrylonitrile will be increased by about 70 million tons. However, the downstream demand for acrylonitrile is expected to be limited, especially in the acrylic fiber industry. Unlike the gold nine silver ten performance in previous years, this year's yarn market was less affected by insufficient domestic demand and limited export. The starting load of acrylic fiber industry in China has been at 7 below the level since May, and the largest acrylic fiber manufacturer, Jilin chemical fiber, will plan to stop for more than 20 days in September 19th. At that time, the acrylic fiber load will be reduced to below 6.

On the whole, the supply of acrylonitrile market is still tight, but it can only support the market to maintain stability, and is expected to continue until after this month's settlement. In the late part of the year, with the end of the stocking of downstream customers and the expected increase in supply in October, the acrylonitrile market will gradually get into the most difficult situation since the beginning of this year.