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Monthly Report On Cotton Situation In China (October 2019)

2019/11/25 13:25:00 0

CottonSituationMonthly Report

In October, cotton picking and processing entered the peak season. The meteorological conditions were suitable for picking, and the output prediction was consistent with that of the previous period. Textile market is recovering, but demand has not improved significantly. Sino US trade consultation has progressed smoothly and market confidence has been slightly improved. China Cotton Association predicts that the total output of cotton will be 5 million 905 thousand and 700 tons, down 3.35% from the same period last year, and cotton consumption will be 8 million 20 thousand tons, down 0.6% from the same period last year, the same as that of the previous period. The price of cotton both inside and outside is showing an upward trend, and the increase of foreign cotton is larger than domestic price. New cotton concentrate picking, processing progress accelerated significantly, the purchase price fell nearly 20% compared with the same period last year, the sales of new cotton were slower, and business inventories increased significantly.

(1) speeding up cotton harvesting in the whole country

In October, the cotton picking area began to pick up in large scale, and the harvesting speed was faster and the purchase price was lower. By the end of October, the national picking rate was 88.88%, up 4.76 percentage points over the same period, and the sales progress was 77.12%, up 3.9 percentage points over the same period. The average delivery price was 5.05 yuan / kg, down 21.48% compared to the same period last year, and the ratio fell by 18.02%. The picking and selling progress of Xinjiang was faster than that of the same period last year. The cotton harvest work in the northern Xinjiang region was basically completed, and the cotton harvest in the southern Xinjiang region was more than half. The weather in the mainland was fine, which was conducive to the cotton drying and harvesting. The cotton picking rate had already been over 9, which was affected by factors such as low cotton price and inactive purchase market, and the sale was slower than that of the same period last year.

According to the weighted average calculation of cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the total output of cotton in the whole country is estimated to be 5 million 905 thousand and 700 tons, down 3.35% from the same period last year, which is the same as the previous period. According to the subregional perspective, the output of Xinjiang was 5 million 39 thousand and 500 tons, down 1.9% compared with the same period last year. The output of the Yangtze River Basin was 360 thousand and 500 tons, down 11.34% compared to the same period last year. The forecast output of the Yellow River basin was 467 thousand tons, down 9.84% from the same period last year.

(two) the price of seed cotton fell during the peak period.

In October, the acquisition and processing of cotton in China entered a peak period. The average purchase price of grade 3128 seed cotton was 400 yuan cotton processing enterprise 5.37 yuan / kg, down 20.44% compared with the same period last year. The total amount of lint processing is about 1 million 546 thousand and 900 tons, a decrease of 8.76% over the same period last year. According to the subregional perspective, the purchase amount of seed cotton in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period last year. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. In order to avoid selling pressure, processing enterprises dare not open up acquisitions or choose to sell lint in futures warehouse receipts. Although the purchase price of cotton seed in the mainland is on the rise, it still does not reach the expected value of cotton growers. The temperature at the end of the month has dropped and seed cotton picking is coming to an end.

(three) the market is slightly warmer. Demand has not improved significantly.

The textile market recovered in October, but there was no obvious improvement in demand. Cotton purchases continued to follow suit, and the stock of raw materials and textile output showed an upward trend. As of October 31st, textile enterprises had 709 thousand and 600 tons of cotton stocks, up 8 thousand and 200 tons from the end of last month, representing a decrease of 161 thousand and 600 tons compared with the same period last year. The output of textiles increased by 1.2% over the same period, down 3.3% from the same period last year, and the output of cloth increased by 0.2%, down 4.1% from the same period last year.

The domestic textile market is weak, and there are still many uncertain factors for external demand, and the export of textile and clothing is declining. According to customs data, exports of textiles and clothing in September were 24 billion 520 million US dollars, down 7.85% from the same period last year, and 4.64% in the ring. Among them, textiles amounted to 9 billion 765 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.88%, a decrease of 2.5% in the ring ratio, 14 billion 755 million in clothing, a decrease of 7.83% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 6.01% in the ring.

(four) the increase in cotton prices is higher than the domestic price differentials.

In October, the new round of Sino US trade consultation progressed smoothly, and the market confidence was slightly improved. The "golden nine silver ten" textile traditional peak season arrived, both inside and outside cotton prices showed an upward trend, and the external cotton increased more than domestic. New cotton is on the market and there is ample supply of market resources. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 12971 yuan / ton, up 363 yuan from the end of last month, and the monthly average price was 12962 yuan / ton, down 239 yuan, down 3237 yuan compared with the same period last year.

At the end of the month, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the year, and the international cotton futures and spot prices rose. China's cotton import price index FCIndexM average 75.27 cents / pound, up 4.02 cents / pound. The end of the month is 77 cents / pound, up from 4.69 cents / pound at the end of last month, and 13418 yuan / ton below 1% tariff, which is higher than the 447 yuan / ton of domestic stock in the same period, which is 494 yuan / ton higher than the end of last month.

(five) substantial increase in new cotton stocks

New cotton has been listed on a large scale, enterprises have been cautious in the market acquisition, and business inventories have risen sharply, but compared to last year, the year-on-year growth rate continued to narrow. At the end of October, the total stock of cotton business in China was about 3 million 224 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 1 million 20 thousand and 800 tons from the previous month, up from 250 thousand and 300 tons in the same period last year, representing an increase of 287 thousand tons from last month.

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