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Polyester Filament Production And Marketing 180% Welcome "Double 12" Market, But Upward Kinetic Energy Shortage.

2019/12/13 17:04:00 0

Polyester Filament Production And Marketing

With the advent of the electricity business, the production and marketing of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang seems to have ushered in the "double two" market, which has ushered in a large volume of production and marketing in the past nearly two days. On Wednesday, the average production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 180%, and on the 12 day, the average production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces still had a good performance. This is for the continuous downturn of polyester production and marketing in recent months, it can be regarded as a long drought, and the chemical fiber manufacturers with high storage pressure can finally reduce the pressure on the warehouse.

Why on the rise of polyester filament? What impact will this long delayed rally bring to the textile market before the Spring Festival?

News, fundamentals, help downstream weaving "bottom", polyester filament welcome rebound stage

Since the beginning of this year, the market price of polyester filament has been running low, especially at the recent stage. The price of conventional raw materials is not only the lowest in this year, but also the lowest price in recent three years.


At present polyester factory stock pressure is limited, but the profit level is not optimistic. From the inventory point of view, from the profit point of view, this year, the profits of various products have shrunk to varying degrees, especially the FDY products, which have been in a state of deficit since October, and the losses have been expanding.


Many factories and factories in the polyester plant have been overhauling and reducing production plans before and after the Spring Festival. Some factories have added new overhauls outside the original maintenance plan, such as Tiansheng and Da wo. From December to January, the polyester plant concentrated on the production of about 9 million 500 thousand tons per year. Among them, in early December, after a partial maintenance and production reduction, there was less maintenance in the middle of the month, but from late June to mid January, it was the most concentrated period of maintenance and production reduction. The low polyester load is expected to appear in mid January, around 75%. On the 11 day, the news that a large factory in Shaoxing has cut down 400 thousand tons of output has stimulated the market.

At the same time, this year, when the early closure of the textile industry is expected to result in high storage pressure in the late stage, the polyester plant's overhauling efforts this year may be far ahead of the previous years.


For most downstream weaving enterprises, it is a common practice to store some raw materials before the holidays, whether it is to prevent prices of raw materials from rising next year, or to make production more successful next year. With the advance of this year's holiday, weaving enterprises have begun to store raw materials before the start of their own stock shortage. In such a market, there is enough demand downstream to support the short rise of polyester filament.

On the other hand, it is also inseparable from the help of upstream raw materials. On the 12 day, influenced by rumors of a raw material supply problem in the upstream plant, the PTA futures market also ushered in a long delayed rise, helping the polyester Market in a short time.

Downstream "hand", polyester filament stage rebound, but hard to reverse!

The whole market is under the law of buying or selling, so when the price of polyester continues to fall, the purchasing desire of downstream weaving is low, which leads to the continuous compression of raw material stocking for downstream weaving, and many raw materials for weaving and weaving enterprises are already in urgent need.

So when the polyester price dropped to nearly three years low in the near future, the absolute low price and its own stocking demand have been able to achieve the downstream copy operation, and the two day production and sales explosion table is also a strong evidence. But the end of this year's poor weaving situation will make the next polyester filament upward kinetic energy insufficient.

The consequences of overcapacity caused the weaving factories to suffer a lot this year, with high inventories, shrinking profits, weak demand, frequent production cuts, shutdowns and failures. Until nine and October, although the market was getting warmer, it still had little effect. The purchase of polyester filament was basically a replenishment. So far, at the end of the year, the order of weaving enterprises has basically come to an end. Looms begin to make inventory, and the receivables are not fully recovered at present. Under the pressure of funds, the demand for polyester filament is not strong. Therefore, given the uncertainty of the market this year and the trend of next year, it is expected that the volume of hoarding will not be larger than in previous years. In addition, the time will immediately enter the Spring Festival time, which is a sharp decline in the textile market. The market is expected to further fade away, and the inventory of conventional products is bound to accumulate further.

As a result, the prosperity of the textile market is difficult to improve in a short time. Weaving enterprises do not have a strong desire to purchase raw materials for a long time, and the willingness to accept the price rises is also low, so the power of polyester filament upward is not enough.

At the same time, the decline of raw material terminal PTA is also due to the continuous expansion of its capacity. At the end of October, the commissioning of the new 2 million 200 thousand PTA PTA device once again raised the market's concern over the over supply of PTA. Moreover, 2020~2021 will usher in the peak of PTA production in China in the year of 2020~2021. It is expected to total 14 million 400 thousand tons / year, accounting for about 29% of the capacity at the end of the year. The expanding supply side makes the price of PTA difficult to climb, and it is difficult to maintain the cost of polyester filament at a long time.

PTA can not give the backing of polyester filament cost, and weaving enterprises can not support the demand side of polyester filament. When combined, the polyester filament will rebound to the stock opportunity, but the chance of reversing is probably not big.

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