Behind The Decline Of New Energy Vehicle Sales

Affected by the decline of subsidies, China's new energy vehicle market has been declining for five consecutive months, and the decline range is expanding.

According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 110000 and 95000, respectively, down 36.9% and 43.7% year-on-year. In the first 11 months, the production and sales volume were only 1.093 million and 1.043 million respectively, with the growth rate narrowing to 3.6% and 1.3% respectively. According to this trend, the whole year may show negative growth for the first time.

Last year, the sales volume of 1.25 million vehicles of new energy group in China will be lower than that of 1.25 million vehicles in China. However, he is still optimistic about the market prospect of new energy vehicles. "The storm in front of us is just a pain in the neck, and the development prospect of China's new energy automobile industry is still extremely broad." Xu Heyi said.

Ye Shengji, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, believes that China has been in the forefront of the world in promoting the industrialization of new energy vehicles and in the process of market-oriented development. But objectively speaking, there is still a long way to go before the complete marketization.

It is worth noting that in the process of the continuous downturn of the new energy market and the shift from policy driven to market driven, various auto companies have run out of different curves. In recent months, sales of BAIC new energy and BYD have continued to decline, but the market share of Geely and GAC new energy has expanded, and the market performance of several leading automobile making forces is relatively stable. The pattern of new energy market of independent brand will be reshuffled.

Changes in the pattern of independent brands

In the past few years, driven by policies, China's independent brands have taken the lead in the industrialization of new energy vehicles, occupying the main market share. Among them, the market performance of BAIC new energy and BYD is the most outstanding.

However, the above two enterprises are currently facing certain difficulties, and it is difficult to achieve the set goals. Since the implementation of the new subsidy policy in June this year, sales of the two companies have continued to decline.

The sales volume of Beigu New Automobile Co., Ltd. fell by 11.03% to 11.03% of the total sales volume of the first month, which was 11.03% lower than that of the previous month.

BYD's sales of new energy vehicles have continued to decline for five consecutive months since July this year. In November, BYD's sales of new energy vehicles were only 11200, down 62.7% year-on-year; in the first November, the cumulative sales volume of 216000 vehicles narrowed to 7.58% year-on-year. At present, the annual sales of BYD's new energy vehicles are likely to show negative growth.

The results of the two companies have also been affected. In the third quarter, BAIC Blue Valley had a net loss of 360 million, with a net profit loss of 820 million after deducting non recurring gains and losses. The company's share price continued to fall, closing at 6.09 yuan on December 16, with its market value down by one-third compared with that when it was listed. BYD's net profit in the third quarter also fell by nearly 90% to 120 million yuan, with a direct loss of 150 million yuan after deducting non net profit.

BAIC bluevale said in the third quarter report that the company's annual net profit may have a loss due to the large decline of new energy vehicle promotion subsidies. BYD also predicted in the third quarter report that the overall market demand of the automobile industry in the fourth quarter was still weak, with the impact of changes in the fuel vehicle price system and the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle industry was lower than expected. Therefore, the group's new energy vehicle business profit is expected to decline to a certain extent compared with the same period last year.

"Due to the decline of subsidies, the problem of pursuing" quantity "in the past has also been exposed. In order to cope with the operating pressure, the price adjustment of new energy vehicles has made automobile enterprises more cautious. " On December 16, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of passengers, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

However, there is a breakthrough in new energy brands.

In November, Geely Automobile sold 14000 new energy and electric vehicles (including light hybrid vehicles), with a year-on-year increase of 33.66%. From January to November, Geely's new energy and electric vehicles sold 103200 vehicles, up 160.63% year-on-year. If calculated according to the caliber of this hybrid model, Geely's new energy vehicle sales in a single month have surpassed BYD.

In addition, GAC new energy sold 6263 new cars in November, up 108% year-on-year; in the first November, GAC new energy sold 33600 new vehicles. On December 16, Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of GAC New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., said that GAC new energy is expected to reach about 8000 units in December.

In addition, the sales volume of new forces such as Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile and Weima automobile has been relatively stable in recent months, and the market share has increased slightly.

Geely geometry a and GAC new energy aion s are selling well, which is the reason why the two car companies can rise against the trend. At the same time, in November, BYD had no single model to enter the top five of new energy vehicle sales, and there was only yuan EV in the top ten.

"Medium and high-end models with higher prices are less dependent on subsidies and are mainly aimed at private users. Subsidies are not so sensitive to price. As a result, they are less affected by subsidies. " Cui Dongshu told reporters that with the change of market demand, the new energy vehicle market will also be shuffled in the process of adjustment.

How to break through in shuffling?

The transition stage of new energy vehicles from policy driven to market driven also shows an obvious trend of consumption upgrading.

According to the data of the Federation of passengers, the pattern of the new energy vehicle market segment has changed since this year. The most obvious decline is A00 and A0 class vehicles, while A-class vehicles and B-class vehicles are growing. Cui Dongshu explained that the growth of pure electric A-class car market is mainly due to the pull of online car hailing and rental car rental.

"From the perspective of this year's new energy vehicle market, the sales of low-end models are shrinking and declining. This year's decline is large, but the market of medium and high-end models is growing rapidly. For example, BAIC's EU5, like Weilai's ES6, Xiaopeng P7, and so on, all performed well in their respective market segments. " Xu Heyi said.

With the advent of the post subsidy era, the cost pressure faced by independent vehicle enterprises is deepening. With the progress of technology and the enrichment of vehicle models, the competition of independent automobile enterprises in the field of new energy is also increasing day by day. Especially in the face of joint venture brands entering China's new energy vehicle market, in the next stage, independent brands will also face a more severe test in the new energy market.

"In the short term, as the cost problem is difficult to solve, the advantages of new energy vehicles can not be brought into play, and the private market needs to be further explored." Cui Dongshu told reporters.

He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng automobile, believes that the cold winter is not terrible, and spring is not far away. The key is to have patience and perseverance to endure today's loneliness.

He believes that car companies need to find a way to "survive the winter", while Xiaopeng automobile's strategy mainly focuses on five parts: first, every enterprise needs to accumulate grain; second, focus on intelligence, explosive products and quality; third, practice internal skills to make up for weaknesses; fourth, adhere to 2C sales as the main; fifth, cultivate brand.

Xu Heyi said frankly, for BAIC new energy, we should focus on brand and brand upward in the future. At the same time, the deep integration of new energy and intelligent network integration, superimposed evolution.

"The core focus of the current new energy vehicle industry is the inflection point of cost compared with traditional vehicles. However, under the enabling of intelligent network, the competition, game and substitution of the new generation of new energy vehicles to traditional vehicles can no longer follow the traditional static and materialized thinking to judge. Once the smart network enables new energy vehicles, in terms of function, it is far beyond the traditional cars, and that is not comparable in price. " Xu Heyi said.