Nearly 200 Billion! This Year, 16 Banks Will Be Lifted To Lift The Ban On Postal Savings Banks.

After the intensive listing of banks, the period of intensive lifting is coming.

In December 31, 2019, the Bank of Hangzhou (600926.SH) and the Chengdu Bank (601838.SH) share the lifting of the ban, and in the next 2020 January, Zijin Bank (601860), Qingdao Bank (002948) and Zhangjia port (002839) are about to lift the ban. 5 banks have a total market value of 17 billion 70 million yuan, and the share types are all the initial shareholders' restricted shares.

If the time is lengthened, even if the Bank of Hangzhou and Chengdu bank are not counted, there will be 16 banks lifting the ban in 2020, involving a market value of 197 billion 840 million yuan (the closing price in December 31, 2019, the same below). Will this cause a certain pressure on the banking sector?

Zijin bank, the month of cost elimination.

The restricted stock issued by the Bank of Hangzhou is limited to 294 million shares issued by Hongshi Holding Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as "Red Lion Holdings"), representing a total of 5.73% shares, accounting for 5.73% of the total share capital of the company. The lock up period is 5 years from the date of completion of the registration of the stock trusteeship service company of Zhejiang. The restricted stock will expire and will be listed for circulation in December 31, 2019.

On the same day, the Bank of Chengdu also had a ban on the initial sale of restricted shares, but the scale was much smaller than that of Hangzhou bank. The lifting of the ban on the Bank of Chengdu amounted to 534 thousand and 100 shares, accounting for 0.01479% of the total share capital of the company, involving a total of 31 shareholders.

In January, the largest bank in the lifting of the ban was Zijin bank. According to the original plan, the 2 billion 207 million shares of Zijin bank will be lifted in January 3, 2020, accounting for 60.30% of the total share capital and 85.77% of the total shares. The lifting of the ban involves 387 shareholders, lifting the market value of 10 billion yuan. However, Zijin bank said later that because some shareholders voluntarily locked, the actual lifting of the ban shares in January 2020 amounted to 1 billion 369 million shares, accounting for 37.39% of the total share capital. Although the scale of the lifting of the ban has shrunk dramatically, the market is still scared because of the absolute value (which involves 7 billion 690 million yuan in market value). In December 9, 2019, Zijin Bank fell 8.53%, and then fell second on the second day.

In addition to the lifting of the ban, Zijin bank's volatile people are also the cause of the stock price slump. In December 2, 2019, Zijin bank issued a notice on personnel changes that the board of directors of zijinnong commercial bank has received Huang Weiping's resignation report. He resigned from company director, vice chairman, risk management and related party control committee member for personal reasons.

In fact, in June 2019, the high-level personnel of zijinnong commercial bank started to surge. In June 5th, Zijin bank announced that Huang Weiping, vice chairman of the company, was working with relevant departments for personal reasons and could not perform his duties properly. The announcement indicates that the company's various business activities have been carried out normally, and the relevant work has been properly arranged. This matter will not have a significant impact on the management of the company.

In addition, in October 30, 2019, zijinnong commercial bank also resigned from an independent director. The agency indicated that the company had received an application for resignation from Ms. Mao Weihong, an independent director. Ms. Mao Weihong applied for resignation from the company's independent directors, members of the audit committee, risk management and related transaction control committee members for his own work reasons.

From past experience, a large lifting of the ban will bring pressure on share prices. In November 2019, the Chinese people's Insurance (601319) entered the lifting of the ban period. From November 6th, the stock price continued to fall 9 days, down 18.62%, of which November 18th was even down. Earlier, Tianfeng securities (601162) also had 2 limit UPS because of the lifting of the ban.

Postal savings bank lifted the biggest market cap this year

In addition to the 3 banks in January, there were 13 banks in the banking sector facing the lifting of the embargo and 16 banks with a total market value of 197 billion 840 million yuan. In addition to the 3 shares that are private placements, the remaining 13 share of the lifting of the ban comes from the initial restricted shares.

Among them, 8 banks have lifted the market value of more than ten billion yuan, including postal savings bank, Chongqing agricultural firm, Zhejiang Commercial Bank, Suzhou bank, Beijing bank, Tsing Nong commercial bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Xingye Bank. Among them, the number of postal savings banks is the most, and the total share of lifting the ban is 7 billion 400 million, involving an amount of 43 billion 340 million yuan. In addition, the market value of Chongqing agricultural trading company was about 30 billion 430 million yuan, ranking second. Zhejiang Merchants Bank ranked third on the scale of 21 billion 320 million yuan, three of which were concentrated at the end of this year.

For the lifting of the amount of days, from the private row network survey, 81.54% of the private market that the lifting of the ban has been expected, and the lifting of the ban is far less than the current calculation of data, lifting the ban will not bring great impact on A shares. 18.46% of the private equity agencies also said that for those stocks that were worried about the fundamentals and large shareholders were reducing their holdings, it would be worse and worse. Investors should be alert to risks.

Cheng en capital chairman Wang Xuan believes that the 2020 market volatility is the main keynote, and the polarization of stocks continues to intensify. The huge lifting of the ban will further deepen the strong shock of the market, but the opportunity of structural market can not be ignored. There are three main factors for short-term A shares to break through. First, the market withdrawal mechanism can not keep up with the speed of expansion of new shares. The imbalance between supply and demand leads to obvious structural agglomeration of market funds, and A shares are difficult to go all the way; two, the reduction of size and non constant reduction, and the overall dividend rate of A shares is low, and investor confidence is difficult to sustain. The three is that while the former economy has increased in some sectors, the overall downward pressure still exists, and the pace of earnings rising in different industries is different, leading to the current A share being a structural investment opportunity.

"Whether it will have a greater impact, but also to see the market sentiment, but from the recent situation, the possibility of greater pressure. First of all, from the quantity point of view, the lifting of the ban on banking stocks is indeed large, and the confidence of the market has not been fully restored at present, so the attitude is more cautious, the market acceptance is poor; second, the A+H shares in the banking sector, the value of H shares compared with A shares is significantly lower; third the real economy is still in transition, and it also causes some pressure on banks, so the future performance of bank shares needs to be tested from now on. A fund manager of a fund company in Southern China said to reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

The banking sector has become a serious disaster area. At present, there are 24 banks in the 36 listed banks, with a net break rate of 66.7%.

"Basically, compared to the market value of the lifting of the ban in the future, the plan to stabilize the share price is only a drop in the bucket." The fund manager said.