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The "Shuffle" Under The New Tyre Quantity Purchase: The Upgrading Of The Generic Drugs, Exacerbating The Continuous Differentiation Of The Pharmaceutical Sector.

2020/1/1 16:22:00 0

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In December 29, 2019, the national organization for centralized procurement and use of pharmaceuticals joint procurement office issued the "national drug centralized procurement document (GY-YD2019-2)" (hereinafter referred to as the "document"), the second batch of varieties of quantity procurement work began, then the pharmaceutical sector continued to rise.

In December 30th, the pharmaceutical sector opened briefly, followed by a rising trend. In December 31st, the pharmaceutical sector rose all the way, Lu Fu medicine, Xiang Xue pharmaceutical, Kangzhi pharmaceutical and many other stock trading.

Southern China, a medium-sized brokerage analyst told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that the overall valuation of pharmaceutical stocks is low. During the year-end consolidation period, apart from the policy information, there is a certain relationship between the stock market and the pharmaceutical stocks. In the future, the impact of quantity purchasing on medical stocks will inevitably enter the stage of normalization, and the trend of industry reshuffle and centralized development is more obvious.

According to the document, the national collection catalogue involved 33 varieties, about 9 billion yuan in the market scale. Compared with the 35 varieties previously transmitted by the network, there was less metformin orally released release form and metformin controlled release dosage form.

Some agencies pointed out that the subdivision of policy immunization is still recommended, while at the same time, it is suggested that we should pay close attention to the target of collecting and benefiting from the variety of stocks and the related targets of consistency evaluation. We are optimistic about innovative drugs, CXO, upstream of the generic drug chain, vaccines, medical devices, medical information, chain Medicine and pharmacy. What's going to change next year is that investment may develop in depth. It is recommended to firmly hold core assets, while actively paying attention to the leading sub sectors with cost-effective advantages.

Increased probability of selection in Enterprises

Purchasing with quantity will lead to the reshuffle of the pharmaceutical industry. The most influential ones are small and medium enterprises with low specialization, small scale of production and high operating costs. In the future, large enterprises swallow up small businesses, and the industry tends to become intensive and large-scale.

According to the procurement rules, if the actual number of successful enterprises is 3 or 4, the purchase volume will be 70% and 80% in the first year, which means that the market share of a drug will be shared by a small number of enterprises, while the pressure of survival will not increase. The small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises may face the pressure of the abolition of the production line, and the pharmaceutical industry will re shuffle.

Jin Chunlin, director of Shanghai health and health development research center, said that the number of successful companies has expanded and the pressure of bidding in principle has been reduced. However, after two practices, many enterprises still have the "prisoner's dilemma" effect. If they do not win the bid, they will die immediately. In order to win the bid, they may quote the unthinkable price at all costs, because the less chance they win, the less chance they will have. Personally, the competition pressure may be better, but it is also hard to say.

Pan Haiyang, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, said in a research report that the whole policy has eased up compared with the previous two times. Compared with the previous policy of a central election or 3 elections, the change is expected to increase in the number of Chinese investors. As long as the price is enough, the market share rate can be shared, so that the probability of a large decline is also expected to increase. This game from the perspective of the overall price decline is expected to exceed 50% of the probability.

Secondly, while winning the share of huge market share, the winning bidder will also reduce the price of drugs. This raises higher requirements for the cost of the enterprise to control and enhance production capacity. Enterprises with strong advantages in R & D and cost control will further stand out.

A pharmaceutical company in Southern China told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that in the past, due to historical reasons, some generic drug companies failed to meet the conventional requirements, and the accelerated acceleration of quantity purchasing intensified the process of upgrading and elimination.

Continuous differentiation of pharmaceutical sector

On the other hand, the policy aspect also affects the trend of the pharmaceutical sector.

Medical investment presents a pattern of ice and fire. The industry has both high-quality growth stocks, and there are many companies that explode performance. But because of the particularity of the pharmaceutical industry, the financial statements of some pharmaceutical listed companies are difficult to intuitively reflect the risk of the company's "exploding thunder".

By the end of 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index has gone out of the trend of upward shock.

For the 2019 performance of the pharmaceutical sector, Yu Yang, a rich country fund manager, told the media that the current pharmaceutical market is essentially different from that in 2018. Looking back in 2018, the volume purchasing policy has a great impact on the whole industry, thus affecting the whole industry's long-term investment logic, and the valuation system has reached a very low level. But the most recent reason for this adjustment is the adjustment after a short-term surge.

The impact of the policy of volume purchasing is mainly in several sub fields, such as generic drugs and a small number of consumables. Many companies that are not affected by the policy have also fallen. In fact, the essence is too high or too high. As for the companies that are affected by the volume purchase, their investment value is relatively low, especially the agencies will not pay close attention to these companies for a long time. Yu Yang said.

At the same time, Everbright Securities pointed out that health care reform progressing steadily, focusing on 2020, we should layout high-quality stocks. Whether it is medical negotiation, carrying out the plan of carrying out quantity collection plan, or expanding the anticipation of collecting mining, all these are the policy directions of the great health care reform over the past year. The industrial policy has not undergone obvious marginal changes, and has not changed the investment logic of the pharmaceutical sector.

Because the health care reform policy is mainly aimed at changing the competitive elements of pharmaceutical enterprises, weakening the value of sales capabilities, and strengthening research and development as the core, superposing the comprehensive strength of production and sales. On the surface, price reduction may be normal, but access is also accelerating. High barriers, high clinical value and cost-effective pharmaceutical products are still the direction of encouragement in the future. The pharmaceutical industry is currently in the new and old energy conversion period, and the quality leader with long-term sustainable growth ability is still the first choice. At present, some quality stocks have returned to a reasonable interval after a month's callback. It is a good time to arrange the market in the context of policy anxiety affecting the short-term market sentiment.

In addition, Tianfeng Securities Research Report also pointed out that purchasing with quantity will become a normal situation. In the new normal, enterprises are required to have a better pricing strategy. In the long run, it is necessary to pay attention to the core competitiveness of enterprises, including the competition pattern of products, which will become an important bargaining power.

At the enterprise level, it is necessary to use product pipelines and product echelons to hedge the risk of a large price reduction of a single species, so as to cope with the pressure of continued price reduction in the future under the new normal.

In the future, the integration of generic drugs is unstoppable. The fight against price will be normal. We should pay attention to enterprises with generic drug echelons and integrated raw materials, such as China's biopharmaceutical, Cologne and Huahai pharmaceutical industries. Secondly, the strategic purchase of medical insurance is an important means to reduce the cost of health insurance through generic drugs. We should pay attention to the direction of medical insurance, focus on innovative drugs and its industrial chain, and the relatively small equipment (IVD), and pay attention to leading enterprises, such as Heng Rui medicine, pharmacy, MINDRAY medical treatment, and Mike biology. Third, we should pay attention to independent rigid consumption, such as medical services, vaccines, blood products, and rigid medication at their own expense.

 

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