Weak Demand For Chemical Fiber Industry, Declining Market Share Of Polyester "Big Guy"

The new year is approaching. This year, the economic situation at home and abroad is still complex and severe. The overall demand of the chemical fiber industry is weakening, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the market price is declining, and the profit margin of the industry is declining.

No matter how big the chemical fiber market is, polyester "big guys" are busy in 2019. In order to win more advantages and not miss the opportunity in the future, the expansion of many subdivision industries represented by leading enterprises is still continuing. The private refinery projects invested by large polyester enterprises in previous years have been put into operation, and a number of polyester polyester projects and PTA projects have been put into operation. The industry's "head effect" is obvious.

Zhejiang Petrochemical has already been put into operation in late 19, and the three largest chemical fiber giant: the last link of the industrial chain has been completely opened up.

The most prominent manifestation is that several major private refinery projects invested by large-scale chemical fiber enterprises have been put into operation. Since the beginning of this year, Hengli refinery, Zhejiang petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei's three major private refinery projects have been speeding up to make the final "sprint" before being formally put into production.

In May 17th, Dalian Changxing Island Industrial Park, "Hengli 20 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project" declared to be put into operation. The project has an aromatics unit with an annual output of 4 million 500 thousand tons. It adopts advanced AXENS technology and the largest scale in the world. It is the benchmark project of the global petrochemical industry in the new century.

In November 3rd, Hengyi Brunei PMB petrochemical project completed the entire process of the plant and put it into full operation, and successfully produced gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, PX, benzene and other products.

In December 4th, the first ship PX produced by Hengyi Brunei PMB petrochemical project completed unloading at Hainan Yisheng self built terminal. In November 3rd, after the whole process was completed and put into full operation, the project came close to full load output in just 1 months.

In December 30th, Rongsheng Petrochemical announced that the 40 million ton / year refining and chemical integration project (phase I) was fully put into operation. Up to now, the oil refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream chemical equipment have been put into trial run, and the whole process has been cleared up, and stable operation has been achieved and qualified products have been produced.

The upsurge in the construction of private large-scale refinery and chemical integration projects is different from that before China's refining and chemical industry projects. The important differences are: on the one hand, Hengli shares, Rongsheng petrochemical and Hengyi petrochemical companies are all domestic polyesters and chemical fiber industry giants, all of which are to accelerate the construction of the "crude oil processing - PX PTA, ethylene glycol polyester" integrated industrial development mode. This is the demand for industrial development. On the other hand, these projects have high starting point, large scale and large scale of the plant, and strong synergy between the upstream and downstream production capacity. They have the ability and market base to participate in international competition in the global refining, petrochemical and polyester industry chain. This is the endowment of market capacity. From the logic of industrial development,

In a research report on the rise of private refinery giants, Everbright Securities pointed out that "mainland China enterprises have two advantages: first, the advantage of the whole industry chain; PX has 80% downstream in mainland China; and two is the advantage and advantage of the latter. These two advantages make this kind of private enterprise in the world where the lowest comprehensive cost is in the next 10 years on the refining aromatics route.

At present, polyester and PTA businesses in the middle and lower reaches of polyester chemical fiber industry in China occupy an absolute leading position in the world. Production capacity and production scale account for more than 60%-80% of the world total, while the upstream aromatic links have always been controlled by people, and the domestic PX import dependency has reached 60%. Therefore, these large private chemical fiber giants are speeding up the construction of integrated petrochemical projects. With the completion of these major projects, the last link of China's petrochemical polyester and chemical fiber industry chain will be fully opened up.

Large polyester enterprises: opening a new round of investment in polyester polyester and PTA projects

On the basis of refining and chemical projects being put into operation one after another, in 2019, with the large-scale polyester enterprises as the representative, the chemical fiber industry started a new round of investment in the PTA project. At the same time, a number of new polyester polyester projects were put into operation, and a number of new polyester polyester and new materials projects were announced.

During the year, the Tong Kun Group continued to deepen its development, actively expanding its strategic layout, concentrating more projects and starting new projects in many places. In February 14th, the Limited by Share Ltd of Tong Kun announced that it signed an investment agreement with Jiangsu Rudong Port Economic Development Zone, and plans to invest 16 billion yuan, with an annual output of 2 x 2 million 500 thousand tons PTA project, 900 thousand tons of FDY and 1 million 500 thousand tons of POY projects.

In August, the Tong Tong Group's Heng Teng 4 phase project polyester plant successfully started; the constant super annual output of 500 thousand tons intelligent super simulation fiber project (expected to be put into operation in September 2020), the ultra low emission energy saving transformation project of the boiler, and the extension and extension project of Fuchang packing annual output of 10 thousand tons of foam board, 60 thousand tons of liquid titanium oxide and 4000 tons of ethylene glycol antimony catalyst were also started.

In October 12th, the Haiyan hi tech new material industry base project of Tong Kun group was signed in Haiyan, Zhejiang. The project is located in Haiyan Economic Development Zone. It will build 20 sets of surfactant units and 20 sets of textile agent units to form an annual output of 150 thousand tons of surfactant and 200 thousand tons of spinning oil agent.

In October 18th, the Tong Kun group's annual production of 1 million 200 thousand tons of glycol project cooperation gas and steam cooperation signing ceremony was held at the headquarters of Tong Kun group. The project is located at the long Qiao Industrial Park, Lujiang County, Hefei. It will produce an annual capacity of 1 million 200 thousand tons of synthetic gas to produce ethylene glycol. In December 18th, the opening ceremony of the first phase of the annual production of 600 thousand tons of styrene in the first phase of the integrated industrial base of the green and petrochemical industry in the northern Gulf of Tong Kun was held in the three pier area of Qinzhou port, Guangxi. The total investment of the project is 51 billion yuan, and the 3 sub projects and related facilities of the annual output of 600 thousand tons of styrene, 2 million 800 thousand tons of aromatics and 5 million tons of PTA are mainly built.

Hengyi group is another main force of expansion. The group's expansion this year is not only for mergers and acquisitions of bankrupt enterprises, but also for the construction of new projects.

In April 9th, Hengyi Petrochemical announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Suqian Yida New Material Co., Ltd. competed for 350 million yuan to win all the assets of Jiangsu Xiangsheng high tech materials Limited by Share Ltd located in Suyu Economic Development Zone, Jiangsu. Since 2017, Hengyi Petrochemical has implemented many mergers and acquisitions, adding millions of tons of polyester production capacity. In July 7th, Hengyi group and the Qinzhou municipal government signed the investment cooperation agreement on high-end green chemical and chemical fiber integration projects in Nanning, Guangxi. Hengyi group will build caprolactam nylon, PTA- polyester and other projects in Qinzhou. The total investment of the integrated project is about 45 billion yuan, and the annual output value of the integrated project is estimated to be about 50 billion yuan.

Hengli Group is also one of the main force of expansion. In October 25th, Hengli Group announced that it will continue to invest in the construction of the 3 phase project in Nantong, Jiangsu. The total investment of the 3 phase project is about 30 billion yuan, and it is expected to start construction in early 2020. In December 1st, the signing ceremony of the memorandum of investment cooperation between the Guizhou Provincial People's government and Hengli Group was held in Guiyang.

Hengli Group intends to invest 26 billion yuan in Guizhou in the past 3 years. It intends to invest in the construction of Hengli Group regional headquarters in Guiyang, build Hengli Textile New Material Industrial Park in Zunyi and Chishui, build its new high-end materials and high-end fabric production base in Guizhou, and carry out feasibility studies on Guizhou's investment in coal chemical projects. In terms of PTA, Hengli Petrochemical currently has an annual capacity of 6 million 600 thousand tons of PTA capacity, and the PTA expansion project is under way. After the expansion project is put into operation, its PTA capacity will increase to 11 million 600 thousand tons.

Polyester leading enterprises Sheng Hong group and new Feng Ming are also deepening the layout. In May 24th, Jiangsu Honggang Petrochemical Company Limited announced that it will invest in the construction of 2 million 400 thousand tons / year PTA expansion project. After the project is put into operation, the capacity of Sheng Hong Group will reach 3 million 900 thousand tons in PTA. In October 30th, the new Dushan PTA energy phase 2 million 200 thousand annual output project started and put into operation. In addition, in October 28th, the annual production of 200 thousand tons of polyester filament project was put into operation in Vietnam Fuhong Industrial Zone, Fudong Industrial Zone, goose County, Xining, Vietnam. PTA is also being built for 2 million 500 thousand tons.

In response, an industry insider also pointed out: "at this stage, polyester groups are very competitive. From the overall situation of polyester industry chain, with the promotion of competition to the depth of industrial chain integration, several large polyester groups are speeding up the "horse race enclosure" through various forms, and continuously extending the industrial chain to enhance the overall competitiveness of the whole industry chain. This trend will also speed up the reintegration of the whole polyester industry.

The development path of private enterprises is divided into two camps. The aromatics polyester industry chain may eventually move towards the six oligopoly pattern.

At present, the domestic polyester industry has formed the industry pattern dominated by Hengli, Rong Sheng, Tong Kun, Heng Yi, Sheng Hong, Xin Feng Ming, San Fang Xiang and Sinopec and other 8 enterprises (Group). In the next 2~3 years, the expansion of the domestic polyester industry chain is to improve the industrial chain and pursue the scale effect, thereby enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness and anti risk ability.

The focus of Rongsheng, Hengli and Sheng Hong has shifted to the upstream. From PTA polyester polyester to large scale refinery and refinery industries, it means that there will be no need for large-scale expansion of polyester industry in the short term. Therefore, in the next few years, only 3 families, including Tung Kun, Xin Feng Ming and Heng Yi, who really focus on polyester industry in the next few years, among them, Tung Kun and Xin Feng Ming themselves are the leaders in the industry. The 2 companies have been sticking to the main industry of polyester filament industry to make them strong and strong. With the cost advantage, they have also been expanding in the downturn in the past few years, and gradually opened up the scale gap with their competitors.

On the whole, after the opening of the current refinery window, in the next 35 years, the six giants of polyester except Sinopec and three Lane Lane have entered 2 different racetracks. If the traditional refining and chemical enterprises do not seize the opportunity development, it will be difficult to continue to make polyester in the long run. Polyester industry, Tong Kun, Heng Yi and Xin Feng Ming has become clearer and clearer. At present, the six largest private enterprises have a total production capacity of 20 million 80 thousand tons / year and capacity accounts for 37% of the total production capacity. The production capacity is expected to increase to nearly 50% by 2023. The three major private enterprises of Tong Kun, Heng Yi and Xin Feng Ming are currently producing 15 million 100 thousand tons / year and the capacity accounts for 28%, and the capacity is expected to increase to 33% by 2023.

The PTA market share of the downstream refinery and expansion enterprises is very high (about 50%). In 2020, after the PTA expansion, the PX-PTA- polyester industry chain will be highly integrated, and the competitive advantage brought by industrial synergy will also be stronger. Many small and supporting PX and PTA devices will be eliminated in the future. The aromatics polyester industry chain will eventually move towards the six oligopoly pattern, and the market competition will change from the past product competition to the industrial chain competition.

The continuous production of new production capacity of private enterprises will rapidly reduce the market share of traditional polyester raw materials. What should I do?

Considering the overall competitiveness of China's petrochemical industry, it is suggested that the industrial chain should be strengthened as a whole, so as to form a competitive force. At present, the domestic polyester industry chain is in the stage of expansion and integration, especially the large polyester enterprises in the industry, such as Tong Kun, Rong Sheng, Heng Li, Heng Yi, Sheng Hong, San Fang Xiang and Xin Feng Ming, are still constantly adding or acquiring polyester production capacity, while extending their own industrial chain to the upstream raw material industry. Yicheng and Hengli are the first and second largest PTA production enterprises in China. Rongsheng sole proprietorship Sinopec can produce PX. Hengsheng Petrochemical Company, which has invested in Zhejiang petrochemical and Hengli investment, is expanding to the upstream refining industry chain, producing PX and MEG, and becoming more self-sufficient. Judging from the scale and technology of PX, PTA and MEG in traditional enterprises, the technology level and scale (except individual devices) are obviously lagging behind the private enterprises.

Taking the overall consideration of the polyester industry chain of traditional enterprises as an overall consideration, we can give full play to the talents and technology advantages that the industrial chain is still relatively complete and accumulated over the years. We will further study and discuss the development mode of the PX PTA polyester industrial chain, integrate resources systematically, rely on the upstream, increase raw material production capacity and polyester production capacity, improve the capability of internal digestion polyester raw materials PX, PTA and MEG, ensure the health and safety of the industrial chain, reduce the cost, and improve the market share and competitiveness with the advantage of integration.

1, continue to increase PTA production capacity and polyester production capacity in the market or resource gathering area, and digest the capacity of PX, PTA and MEG in the near future.

2, dismantle existing small scale devices, build advanced PTA equipment with large scale, and digest the remaining PX capacity of some enterprises.

3, research into supporting advantages, regional advantages and logistics advantages, and build an intelligent polyester polyester device in its own Petrochemical Industrial Park.

4, strengthen the development of differentiated high value-added polyester products. The development of multicomponent copolymerization (such as PETG, cationic dyeable) and new polyester products (such as PTT/PEN/PBT) is emphasized. Through the new investment and construction, while the upstream production capacity is moderately expanded, the technology level of the plant will be increased, so that the production cost will be reduced. At the same time, with the downstream capacity increasing, the proportion of the upstream and downstream production chain of the industrial chain can be adjusted and optimized, and the structure of the polyester products can be enriched. Therefore, the competitiveness of the traditional PX PTA polyester industry chain will continue to be enhanced, and the market position of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain will be extended. (source: China Textile News, network)