Looking back in 2019, influenced by Sino US trade friction, slowing domestic demand and structural adjustment of downstream textile enterprises, the development of textile raw material industry is rather grim. To predict the textile raw material market in 2020, we need to analyze the following five aspects: output, price, profit, operating rate and inventory.
In 2019, the textile raw material industry was "increasing in volume and falling in price".
Textile raw materials industry remained stable and increased in quantity in 2019, but the price declined sharply. From the annual average price of major textile raw materials in 2018~2019, the average annual price of all varieties fell by 12% over the same period, and the annual average price of some varieties fell by more than 20%. The annual average operating rate of nylon and viscose staple fibers is less than 80%, and the viscose staple fiber industry has seen gross profit deficit in the whole year.
The reasons for this situation are as follows: 1) in the second half of 2019, the trade between China and the United States was weakened due to the Sino US trade war. 2) the markets in the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Central Asia are subject to political, border disputes and so on. 3) the growth rate of China's GDP has declined, limited by domestic demand, and the purchasing power is limited. 4) downstream textile mills are undergoing second structural adjustments after 2000. Their own business management reform and equipment and process adjustment make the overall purchasing power limited, resulting in oversupply of chemical fiber products and inventory accumulation.
Six production and marketing of textile materials in 2019
Textile raw materials mainly include chemical fiber, cotton, linen, silk, wool and so on.
Changes in main textile raw materials output in 2018~2019
In 2019, cotton output was estimated at 6 million 160 thousand tons, up by 0.98% over the same period last year. The main cotton producing areas in China are in the central part of China and Xinjiang. Judging from the decreasing rate of cultivated land in China, cotton can maintain more than 6 million tons of output in 2019, mainly due to large-scale planting, centralized management and weather conditions in cotton producing areas.
The price of major textile raw materials dropped by over 12%: in 2019, the prices of major textile raw materials showed a sharp decline, and all of them fell by more than 12%.
Price changes of major textile raw materials in 2018~2019
The main reasons for the sharp fall in this price are: 1) the Sino US trade war has been more intense since the second half of 2019, and the two sides have made technical barriers to each other, at the same time, a substantial increase in tariffs for most commodities has resulted in a decline in trade circulation and trade volume between the two sides. 2) after the export of the US was blocked, other export markets were gradually developing, but the growth rate was limited. 3) because of the relatively mild economic development, the domestic demand of consumers was limited.
Cotton prices fell 12.48% in 2019 compared with the same period last year. There are two main factors leading to the fall in cotton prices. On the one hand, it is affected by the policy of throwing and storing, storing and storing. On the other hand, it is affected by market price factors such as viscose staple fiber, polyester staple fiber and other substitutes. In 2019, the price of cotton substitute products, such as viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber, decreased greatly, which led to a fall in cotton prices.
The polyester and nylon industry has maintained its annual profit: in 2019, the polyester and nylon series basically maintained the state of profit for the whole year (Figure 2~, figure 4). Viscose staple fiber loss in the whole year, a large loss, once more than 2000 yuan / ton. Acrylic series is profitable in the whole year.
The gross profit of textile raw materials is as follows: 1) although polyester staple fiber and polyester filament show output growth and price decline in 2019, they can form the stage self-regulation of production; meanwhile, the popularization and application of intelligent manufacturing can make polyester staple fiber and polyester filament guarantee a certain gross profit, although the gross profit of the second half of this year has decreased compared with the first half of the year, but in the textile raw material sector, there are a few varieties that can guarantee annual profit.
Figure 22019 trend of polyester staple fiber and polyester FDY68D gross margin
2) in 2019, the viscose staple fiber market increased faster because of the production, and the price dropped considerably. However, due to the expansion of the yarn industry, the speed of the expansion of the viscose staple fiber industry was not fast enough, so that the gross profit of viscose staple fiber industry in 2019 was negative, and the gross loss in most of the year was 1000 yuan / ton, which was once more than 2000 yuan / ton loss.
Fig. 32019 trend of viscose staple fiber gross profit
3) the production of acrylic fiber continued to decrease on the basis of 2018, and some enterprises limited production and reduced production in order to stop losses. Judging from the whole year, the gross profit of the acrylic fiber industry is profitable. It shows that when the market is not good, the profit limit can be maintained at the time limit. With the increase of the operating rate and the large supply, gross profit has lost again.
Figure 42019 gross profit trend of acrylic and nylon FDY70D
4) in 2019, the supply and demand level of the nylon industry chain maintained a weak balance, and the capacity increased. After entering the third quarter, the industry could only maintain a state of break even.
Multiple factors drag down the starting rate of the chemical fiber industry: from the view of the operating rate of the main chemical fiber varieties (Fig. 5), in 2019, the operation rate of the nylon industry was relatively low, and the average annual operating rate in the whole year was near 74%. From the time perspective, the nylon industry started to work less in February and June. After entering the third quarter, its operating rate was basically below 70%. The average annual operating rate of viscose staple fiber industry is 79%. In the middle of April ~7, the operating rate of the industry was relatively low, which was below 70%. In the middle of April, the decrease in operating rate was mainly due to the fact that after the "3.21 Xiangshui explosion", the viscose staple factory in the region was closed during this period. The annual average operating rate of polyester filament industry and spandex industry is around 85%, of which polyester fiber industry has a slightly higher operating rate than the spandex industry. From the time point of view, after the third quarter, the operating rate of the entire chemical fiber industry has dropped to varying degrees. This is mainly due to the higher inventory in the downstream textile market after entering the third quarter, thus slowing down the procurement of textile raw materials, leading to the increase in the inventory of chemical fiber industry, which eventually caused some factories to limit production and reduce the operating rate.
Operation rate of main chemical fiber varieties in 2019
The two grades of spandex and polyester stocks are divided: from the inventory point of view, the average annual average value of spandex yarn is 46 days in 2019, and the average value is 50 days in 1~2 and 7~9 months. The high inventory of spandex yarn is mainly due to the gradual decline in the price of spandex this year. Although the output has kept steady and steady, the use of spandex in downstream weaving mills and round machine factories is limited, resulting in high annual storage of spandex stocks. The average annual stock of viscose staple industry is near 23 days, and the stock days in May and August are low. After entering the fourth quarter, the stock days gradually increase, reaching 30 days or more. This is mainly due to the increase in the production of viscose staple fibers after the fourth quarter, but sales are limited. The average annual inventory of nylon industry is near 24 days. The average annual stock of polyester staple industry is near 6 days. In all chemical fiber varieties, it belongs to the low running state. This is mainly due to the large proportion of polyester industry in the entire chemical fiber industry, the sales policy of this industry is more flexible, and all enterprises are actively controlling their production and marketing rate, so the inventory of the industry basically remains low.
Main chemical fiber inventory index in 2019
2020 textile raw materials prices continue to slump
Judging from the operation of the textile raw materials industry in 2019, the chemical fiber products are in an inventory growth period. During this period, if the structural adjustment speed of the downstream textile sector is limited, the inventory of chemical fiber products will still increase in 2020. It is estimated that in the first half of 2020, the price of the entire textile raw material market will continue to be in the doldrums of the fourth quarter of 2019.
At present, China's macro-economy is still in the "L growth" state. Although some textile raw materials are in a state of gross loss, the price of raw and auxiliary materials may drop correspondingly during this stage. When the market price of chemical fiber products can be in a downturn, the loss value of the textile industry is expected to be gradually reduced.
To sum up, in the first half of 2020, the operation of the textile raw material industry needs to be "intensive farming, deepening management, and accurately targeting the actual market demand", so that some marginal products with gross margins will go out of the margin of loss, while some products with gross margin losses will gradually narrow their losses. At the same time, in the operation, we need to accelerate the process of equipment automation and intellectualization in the production process, lay a good foundation for the time frame of the textile economic switching cycle, and let the Chinese textile raw material industry move forward from big country to powerful country.