The old saying, "three days", should be taken seriously. What if it's four years away?
From 2016 to 2019, the property market goes to a higher level every year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from 2016 to 2018, the scale of commercial housing sales nationwide has been refreshed for three consecutive years. Although the data in 2019 were not released, it would still be a big probability to continue breaking the record.
Over the past four years, the biggest change in the industry is the rapid growth of the scale of Housing enterprises.
Recently, listed housing companies and research institutions have released 2019 sales data, and the sales scale of most housing enterprises continues to grow. According to the statistics of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, in 2019, the "king of the universe" country garden has realized the sales scale of 771 billion 500 million yuan, and the sales scale of Vanke and Hengda also reached the 600 billion threshold. This year, the "100 billion Legion" has expanded to 34 members.
4 years ago, in 2015, there were only 7 members of the "100 billion Legion", and only 16 of the housing companies that had passed the 50 billion pass. Vanke, the industry leader, was 262 billion 700 million yuan in size.
In the four years, the industry competition is not advancing. 3 to 4 times the scale of growth has become the norm; if we want to "overtake" the curve, we need to grow 7 to 8 times; and those housing enterprises that only "double" can double the scale will become "stragglers".
For a long time, scale oriented has always been the main theme of the industry, but after this round of growth, the momentum may slow down. In 2019, the sales volume of the 100 real estate enterprises increased by only 6.5%, a sharp decline from 35% in 2018. According to the insiders, a bigger test is coming soon after the new scale. Whether we can optimize the management system and complete the control of the balance of capital, liabilities and business will probably decide the future life and death of the housing enterprises.
The age of "running away"
In 2019, Vanke, Hengda and financial industries achieved 630 billion 800 million, 601 billion and 556 billion 200 million sales scale respectively, representing an increase of 3.94%, 9% and 21%, ranking second to fourth in the industry.
Biguiyuan announced the scale of the sale of rights and interests is 552 billion 200 million yuan, but according to the statistics of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, last year, the country garden sold 771 billion 500 million yuan in full caliber, and continued to consolidate the position of "the king of scale" in the industry.
The rise of Biguiyuan is the biggest change in recent years. In 2015, the sales volume of Biguiyuan was only 140 billion 200 million yuan. After two years of double growth, Biguiyuan became the first housing company to break through 500 billion in 2017. In recent two years, Biguiyuan no longer announced the full caliber sales data, but since 2017, the company still has the obvious scale advantage and ranks first in the industry.
Over the past four years, there have been a number of "dark horse" rising rapidly.
For example, the sales scale of sunshine city surged from 30 billion to 210 billion, an increase of 6 times; Xu Hui increased from 31 billion 300 million to 200 billion 600 million, increased by 5 times; new town holdings increased from 32 billion 400 million to 274 billion 700 million, ranking the first ten, and the scale expanded by nearly 8 times.
Zhongliang holdings, which was listed last year, grew from 16 billion 800 million to 152 billion 500 million, up 8 times in 4 years. Considering that Zhongliang did not use the dividend of capital market for a long time, this growth was even more striking.
By contrast, a group of companies that are not growing fast are beginning to lag behind. The sales volume of green city in 2015 was 71 billion 900 million yuan, and sales in 2019 were 135 billion 400 million. Although the scale doubled, the ranking dropped from eleventh to twenty-fourth. The competition among the medium-sized housing companies is more intense. The scale of the first estate has increased from 32 billion 500 million to 80 billion 800 million, but the ranking has dropped 20 to forty-third.
According to the statistics of Yi Ju, the Wanda, which has experienced the pain of the capital chain, is the only large scale housing enterprise with a drop in scale in recent years. Its sales volume dropped from 151 billion 300 million to 56 billion 700 million, ranking five from the previous five to fifty-eighth.
"The industry has been growing too fast these years. In 2015, the company was very nervous and discussed how to upgrade the management platform after entering the 50 billion scale. Now look again, 50 billion of the housing enterprises have more than 60. " A person in charge of housing prices in Southwest China told the economic report in twenty-first Century.
The person said that the rapid growth of housing prices, in addition to the market trend is good, there is the initiative to adjust, to "price change volume" results. Especially in 2019, financing and land acquisition costs were rising, but many companies did not significantly raise their prices or even cut prices.
Announcements show that in 2019, Hengda and Rong Chong's sales average prices were lower than those in 2018. Many other housing companies did not see a significant increase in sales prices.
Big adjustment is coming.
At the same time, the differentiation of industries is intensifying. According to the statistics of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, from the point of view of the sales volume of rights and interests, the concentration rate of the top 10 Housing enterprises in 2019 was 21.4%, 5.5 percentage points higher than that in 2016, and the concentration ratio of the 50 strong housing enterprises was 43.5%, 13.8 percentage points higher than that in 2016.
Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, said this also reflects why housing prices are going to scale. "The bigger the scale, the more obvious the advantage is in financing, taking place and selling. And the more stringent the regulation, the greater the advantage. "
In the 2019, the growth rate of the whole industry has been affected. According to statistics, the sales volume of 100 housing enterprises in 2019 increased by 6.5% over the same period last year. In the past three years (from 2016 to 2018), the growth rates were 50.8%, 40.5% and 35.1% respectively.
Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute believes that the current market environment for long-term and stable development has become clear. In 2020, the overall growth of enterprises will enter a stable period. The agency pointed out that "the era of Housing enterprises pursuing the full caliber sales scale has passed, and the development focus of enterprises has gradually shifted from" incremental "to" upgrading quality ".
Housing prices also believe that the last wave of Housing enterprises growth bonus period has ended. In the future, unless there are relatively large M & A opportunities, few enterprises will be able to generate more than 50% or even double scale growth.
After continuous expansion of scale, the management structure adjustment of Housing enterprises has begun.
In 2019, Vanke launched the "early summer action" and "midsummer action" to carry out organizational restructuring and match match reform. The former was targeted at BG, BU (business unit and business line), and the latter targeted at company headquarters. At the end of the year, Vanke launched a major regional shift covering 14 cities. This round of reform is in line with the plan of the "great river and the sea" proposed by Vanke, which aims to break the Pyramid structure and make the organizational structure more flattened and flexible, so as to meet the development needs of the future.
In the near future, the 2020 goal and action communication conference, Vanke made 14 "futures" in the report of more than 4000 words. For the "future", Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke Group, said: "this is an era of stock demand competition with declining aggregate demand and declining revenue growth."
Not only Vanke, but since the middle of last year, housing companies such as Biguiyuan, Rong Chong, Longhu and sunshine city have launched a round of organizational restructuring and related personnel changes have also been made. The purpose of these actions is clear: combining low performance areas, optimizing the organizational structure and improving management effectiveness.
In addition, personnel and organizational changes in some central enterprises and small and medium-sized Housing enterprises also happen frequently. For example, Huarun and Zhonghai have changed the "top leaders"; Taihe has appointed two joint presidents and intends to introduce a partnership system; important personnel changes have also occurred in enterprises such as Yuexiu, Xinli, Jia Zhaoye, Zheng Rong and Rongxin.
Yan Yuejin believes that in accordance with the practice of "first rushing to scale and then managing", this adjustment will become the norm of housing prices in the next few years. Because in this round of scale expansion, housing companies have paid a lot of costs, such as increasing debt ratio, declining profit margins, increasing management radius and rising sales costs. All these problems need to be "mended". In addition, how to formulate the next stage of the new strategy is also a matter for enterprises to consider.
He pointed out that although many enterprises are large in scale, their ability to resist risks has not been improved simultaneously. This year's market environment is not optimistic, the fundamentals of regulation and control and financing difficulties will not change, and the market has also entered the downlink period. Therefore, the scale of the industry will not increase very much in the future, but the strategic and managerial adjustment will be inevitable.