Twenty-first Century researcher Livy, Capital Research Institute
The path of registration reform is subverting the first market ecosystem.
In twenty-first Century, the Wind statistics of the Institute of capital research found that since the launch of the science and technology board in June 2019, a total of not less than 72 science and technology innovation companies have issued the total number of shares issued, reaching 4 billion 398 million shares, involving a scale of more than 84 billion yuan, and the average scale of single family fund-raising is about 1 billion 167 million yuan.
In contrast, A shares started about 260 billion 810 million yuan in 2019, accounting for about 32.21% of the scale of the issue. However, this is only the result of the launch of the science and technology board after June 19th of that year. Therefore, the proportion of the first creation of the science and technology board is expected to be further improved in 2020.
In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute held that in 2020, the first complete year after the completion of the securities law will become the key year for registration reform.
We calculated that if the board of A still maintained a relatively fast distribution speed, and the gem registration system reform was further implemented, it is expected that the initial size of the registration system in 2020 will exceed the approval system. The proportion of the initial fund-raising of the gem under the registration system reform will be more than half of that of the IPO share market.
Scale exceeds approval system in sight
Registration system is expected to play a leading role in the A share IPO market.
In twenty-first Century, according to the IPO market situation in 2019, the Capital Research Institute comprehensively judged that the first scale of registration system in 2020 is expected to exceed the approval system, and the registration system will also play a leading role in the initial market of A shares.
An important signal is that in 2019, the number of first board of science and Technology Board reached 72, which has exceeded the sum of the main board, small and medium board and gem in the same period. The sum of the latter is only 67, and the scale of raising funds of 84 billion 7 million yuan in the same period has little difference from that of 104 billion 558 million yuan.
Although the science and technology board has passed the preparatory period in 2020, the "filing up phenomenon" which is fully prepared for the innovation pilot will be eased, and to some extent, it will reduce the supply of the enterprise. However, with the completion of the revision of the securities law, the registration system will inevitably usher in a continuous expansion and expansion of the scope, and the starting scale of the registration system will gradually improve.
In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute believed that the starting scale of registration system in 2020 will come from two channels, of which the most definitive one is the queuing enterprise of the current Chuang Chuang board.
Wind data show that at present, the audit status of Ke Chuang board company is reflected in the total number of 93 companies that have accepted, replied, inquired, attended, submitted to the SFC and so on.
In addition, only when statistics were introduced into the tutorial period in 2019, a total of 43 enterprises were listed in the guidance and filing status, of which 27 entered the tutorial period in the first half of 2019.
According to the estimate of the first half of 2019, the estimated number of potential enterprises in 2020 is about 120.
Statistics show that as of December 26, 2019, the board of directors of the science and Technology Board approved 2019 companies during the past 114 years, with the exception of 3 failing to pass, 2 postponed voting and 2 abolition of the audit. The other 107 companies passed the starting point, that is, the nominal pass rate was as high as 93.86%.
However, it should be noted that in the process of audit of the KCP, the "termination review" of enterprises perceived pressure during the inquiry session of the exchange, and the items that are blocked in the registration of SFC are not few. This is also seen by the market as a "disguised" veto by regulators in the KCG system, and a way out of the Quality Inc is not eliminated.
Statistics show that in 2019, a total of 22 companies stopped censorship and 2 companies terminated their registration, which was 8 times the number of companies that were not passed by the company. If such a veto factor is taken into consideration, the real rate of the board will be 77.54%.
According to the estimated rate of 77.54%, 135 companies in 2020 are expected to reach 93. If the average size of the company is estimated to be 1 billion 167 million yuan in 2019, these queuing companies will bring in a scale of up to 108 billion 587 million yuan.
If the overall IPO size of A shares is compared in 2019, the above expected scale will increase to 41.63% in the IPO market and will continue to occupy the "half of the A" IPO market.
The starting scale of another registration system will come from the gem reform. As a clear system expectation, the registration system reform of GEM has been stressed many times by the regulatory authorities.
In December 13, 2019, the chairman of the SFC Party committee and the chairman of the SFC Party committee enlarged the meeting to emphasize the need to speed up the reform of the gem and the pilot registration system. Recently, the action plan for the construction of the first demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics (2019-2025 years) issued by Shenzhen also proposed that the registration system reform of the gem should be actively promoted to the ground at an early date.
In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute predicted that according to the current rhythm, the registration system reform of gem would be expected to enter the stage of institutional arrangement in March 2020, and the related declaration and linkage work will start in 2020 5-6.
Considering that there are already some queuing enterprises in gem, some queuing enterprises are expected to switch to the registration system under the new mechanism and do not need to declare again. Therefore, we believe that the current gem has declared enterprises and counselling enterprises, and is expected to make a "contribution" starting scale under the registration system.
Compared with Ke Chuang Chuang, the queuing companies of gem are bigger. Statistics show that at present, there are 164 queuing enterprises on GEM, accounting for 69.20% of the total number of queuing enterprises currently in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and another 8 companies have entered the counselling period in the first half of 2019.
According to this figure, in 2020, there are 172 potential listed companies in the company.
In terms of the success rate of listing, gem is higher than that of Chuang Chuang board. As of December 26th, there were 241 enterprises in gem on 2019, corresponding to 61 projects, including 19, 4 postponed, 10 abolished, and 28 of the termination of the review, that is, the success rate of listing was about 79.80%, which was 2.26 percentage points higher than that of the science and technology board.
According to this success rate, 137 enterprises in 172 enterprises will finally be listed. At the same time, the average fund-raising amount of the GEM companies in 2019 will be 579 million yuan, and the total fund-raising will be 79 billion 323 million yuan.
Suppose that the first registration of GEM companies will be officially implemented in the second half of 2019. According to the conservative estimate of 40%, the registration scale of the gem will reach 31 billion 729 million yuan.
To sum up, according to our estimate, the total starting point of the two sector of the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise market under the registration system will reach 140 billion 316 million yuan. Compared with the A share market in 2019, the proportion has reached 53.80%. Moreover, taking account of the huge non hegemony projects such as postal savings bank and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company in 2019, it has raised the overall fund-raising level of the market. It is not ruled out that the overall fund-raising scale of IPO will be callback in 2020.