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The US Iraq Conflict Is Good For The Global Chemical Market?

2020/1/13 10:30:00 0

Us Iraq ConflictChemical Market

According to Iran's news agency, the Iran parliament approved a bill called harsh revenge on January 7th, and announced that all members of the The Pentagon, including commanders, agents and those who killed Souleymane, will be regarded as terrorists. It paved the way for the retaliatory action to be carried out against the United States.
The fact finding website of the United States said that the funeral director of Su Lai mani called for a reward of 80 million dollars for Trump's head, but the "reward appeal" has not yet been officially authorized by Iran, and does not represent its official position. "
According to the Saudi Arabian media Al Arabiya 5 reported that the state television station of Iran broadcast the funeral of the late general general sallmani on the same day. In a live broadcast, a speech by the eulogy of the general who died in the US air raid was highlighted by some international media.

Arabic television reported screenshots
The funeral director said in the live broadcast, "we have 80 million people in Iran. If we each take out one dollar, we will have 80 million dollars, so we can use this money to reward anyone who can give us the head of Trump. "
Iran is "soft"! Willing to accept negotiations, but revenge first.
The Iran government has announced that it will reduce the fifth phase of its implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement pledge, but will not refuse to engage in nuclear negotiations with the United States. On the night of January 4th, Iraqi joint operations headquarters issued a statement saying that the Iraqi capital, "green zone" and other places in the center of Baghdad, were attacked by shells and caused injuries. Earlier, the Iran military issued a warning that it had already locked 35 important goals, including the United States and Israel in the Middle East. In the face of the threat of retaliation in Iran, US President Trump also issued a warning publicly that the US military has identified 52 important targets in Iran, and the US Army will be ready to accompany them at any time.
In recent days, the situation in the Middle East has continued to escalate. The air strikes by the United States by fixed-point clearance led to the death of Souleymane, the general of Iran, and seemed to be the fuse for a war.
According to past experience, the crude oil market is going up, and the chemical market is bound to rise. Crude oil is one of the most important raw materials in the chemical industry. The rise and fall of oil prices directly affect the price of chemical industry. The price of chemical products across the country has been ready to stir up, and the robbery mode has been officially opened.
In January 6th, the closing price of the p-xylene market in Asia rose by 7 US dollars / ton, closing at 830-832 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 850-852 US dollars / ton CFR China.
In January 6th, the closing price of para xylene market in Europe rose by US $7 / ton, closing at 760-762 US dollars / ton FOB Rotterdam.
In January 6th, the price of us para xylene market closed up 5 US dollars / ton, closing price of US $871-881 / ton FOB US port.
In January 6th, the Shandong Li Hua Yi 80 thousand ton / year styrene unit produced 160 tons per day, the quoted price was raised to 7200 yuan / ton, the stock was general.
In January 7th, the factory price of Li Hua Yi glycol superior grade product was executed at 4550 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.
In January 6th, the mainstream price of ethylene glycol market in Southern China was 4925 yuan / ton (short distance delivery price), up 175 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.
In January 6th, the mainstream price of ethylene glycol market in East China was 5285 yuan / ton (large single tank price), up 195 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.
In January 6th, the factory price of Yongjin chemical grade ethylene glycol was 51000 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton yesterday.
In January 6th, the reference price of toluene in the Korean market was about $697 / ton, which rose by about US $7 / ton compared with the previous trading day. The reference price in East China is about 698.5 US dollars / ton, which is about 5.5 US dollars / ton higher than the previous trading day.
In January 6th, Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International Trade Co., Ltd., the price of TDI was raised, and Shanghai cargo was executed at 12000 yuan / ton.
Hydrogen peroxide solution
Shandong area: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1070 yuan / ton, price rose 30 yuan / ton compared with the end of 12.
Hebei area: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide from the Zhengyuan fertilizer industry dropped to 1120 yuan / ton, and the price rose 40 yuan / ton compared with the end of 12.
Anhui area: Anhui Quan Sheng 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price 1300 yuan / ton, price rose 100 yuan / ton compared with the end of 12.
In January 6th, the latest quotation of Qi Cheng Holdings Group propylene increased, rising 20 yuan / ton to 6850 yuan / ton.
In January 6th, Shandong Hai Ke Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. propylene latest price rise, up 50 yuan / ton to 6900 yuan / ton.
In January 6th, the price of propylene market in Shandong was small. Affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene prices began bottoming out at the end of December, rising continuously, and steadily beginning in January 6th. The price of individual enterprises rose by 50 yuan / ton, and most of them stabilized. At present, the market was trading at 6850~7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6850~6900 yuan / ton.
In January 6th, the latest quotation of propylene in Daqing china blue Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was raised, rising 50 yuan / ton to 6002 yuan / ton.
In January 6th, Shandong Yantai Wanhua chemical group Limited by Share Ltd PDH device propylene latest price rise, up 100 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton.
According to the latest quotation of Wanhua chemical, propylene oxide (PO) rose by 150 yuan / ton to 9950 yuan / ton. MTBE Shandong, East China and Southern China region rose by 150 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton to 5750 yuan / ton, 5800 yuan / ton, 6000 yuan / ton. N-butanol (NBA) increased 100 yuan / ton to 6250 yuan / ton in East China. NPG in North China, East China and Southern China rose 200 yuan / ton, up to 9800 yuan / ton, 9900 yuan / ton, 10000 yuan / ton.

Some raw materials rose

(the above data come from the purchasing of paint, if there is a difference, please take the practice as the criterion. Unit: yuan / ton, ethylene unit: USD / ton)
According to the above data, only a week passed in 2020, and some raw materials increased by 5%. Hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, propylene and other raw materials rose more obviously. Propylene is a raw material which is directly related to crude oil, so it is affected by crude oil and reflects faster.
According to industry analysis, prices of raw materials such as propylene and epichlorohydrin will also push up prices of other raw materials such as downstream epoxy resins and other industrial chains. In this way, downstream coatings, chemicals, refinery, rubber, and even products that are closely related to public life, such as daily chemical plastics, automobile real estate, clothing and textile, medicine and health, will be affected to varying degrees. The throat of the Bay will be blocked and the freight will be increased.
The recent conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated rapidly, and the Strait of Hormuz has once again become the focus of the world. It is also reported that the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps in the southern Iran province has proposed the possibility of an attack on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The commander said: "For the west, the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous place, and a lot of American destroyers and warships go through it. A long time ago, Iran identified an important us goal in the region. The United States has about 35 targets in the area. "
The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran peninsula between Arabia and the India peninsula. It connects the Gulf of Oman to the West Persian Gulf. It resembles a herringbone. It is the only outlet of the Persian Gulf leading to the ocean, connecting the important crude oil producing areas in the Middle East and other parts of the world, and has the name of "the throat of the Gulf".
If the Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz and even launch attacks on US ships in this area, it is bound to block this important offshore oil transportation corridor. In the short term, freight and premiums may rise, and the global shipping industry will suffer a serious blow.
Can the Middle East war break out and oil prices hit 80 US dollars / barrel?
In the first 9 months of 2019, China imported 16 million 10 thousand tons of Iran oil, which is equivalent to 428160 barrels of oil per day. Despite the sanctions imposed by the United States and the west, China and Iran have extensive economic relations. At present, Iran is the third largest supplier of crude oil in China. Its oil supply accounts for 12% of China's total annual consumption and bilateral trade volume exceeds 40 billion US dollars. At the same time, China is Iran's number one importer of crude oil.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East pose a threat to the supply of crude oil market. Analysts at the political risk consulting firm say Brent crude oil may remain at about $70 per barrel for short term, but if the conflict spreads to oil fields in southern Iraq or Iran harassing the Strait's fleet, Brent crude oil may rise to $80.
The Agricultural Credit Bank of France says it is too early to draw a really limited conclusion about the overall impact of oil. After all, they just convened the OPEC meeting, and they reiterated that they would further reduce production. Oil production is expected to peak this year, so oil prices may continue to rise.
In the worst case, if a full-scale conflict erupts, it will easily cause the supply of 200-300 barrels of oil per day to be interrupted in the Gulf region. If the supply of Iraq is hit, oil prices will rise by $3-4 a barrel. If the geopolitical conflict continues to develop, it will seriously affect the continuous rise of domestic oil, chemical products and most commodity prices, and the price increase is just the beginning.

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