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Holiday Approaching, Market Price Stabilization

2020/1/16 12:13:00 0

Market Price

01 index

   02 cotton

   According to the import treasure monitoring, the spot lint 328 price is 13836 yuan / ton, compared with last week 13622 increased 214 yuan / ton, or 1.57%. Futures closed 14285 in May 2020, up 270 points, or 1.93%, from 14015 last week.

The price of zhengmian futures rose sharply this week. In the sixth week (1.6-1.10), Xinjiang cotton entered the bidding price of 13869 yuan / ton, up 291 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the highest bid price of the cotton reserve has been continuously raised. This price is profitable for many of Xinjiang's ginning mills, and the profit margins for some enterprises with lower cost control are not bad. But recently, the market bullish mood has increased, and some cotton processing enterprises have been very expensive and reluctant to sell. This week the cotton reserve plan entered 35 thousand tons, but no deal has been made this week. As for the processing of new flowers, Xinjiang processed 4 million 884 thousand tons of lint in January 9th, an increase of 0.69% over the same period last year. The Australian fire is expected to cut production again, leading to a reduction in the supply of high-grade cotton. Therefore, it is expected that the price of high-grade cotton will be strong in the future and the structural spreads will widen. Warehouse receipts, as of January 10th, Zheng cotton has generated 29445 (+270) sheets of warehouse receipts, the effective forecast volume is 7623 pieces, the total equivalent to 1 million 483 thousand tons of cotton, after the rise of zhengcotton prices, the amount of warehouse receipts increased significantly. Now many hedging enterprises are also more tangled. On the one hand, the price hedging profit is not bad, but if this point is hedging in, futures prices will go up, and the losses in the futures market will be too large, which will cause financial pressure on enterprises, and now the market bullish situation is dominant.

In the week of December 26th, the United States signed a net contract of 55 thousand and 800 tons of Upland Cotton in 2019/20, an increase of 82.2% over last week. The main countries contracted were Vietnam (25 thousand and 900 tons), Turkey (8 thousand and 200 tons) and Pakistan (7 thousand and 400 tons); 50 thousand and 900 tons were shipped during the week. By the end of the week, the total number of 2 million 602 thousand and 400 tons of land cotton signed in 2019/20 has increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, 75% of the forecast for this year (5 years mean 69%), 890 thousand and 300 tons of accumulated shipment and 26% progress of shipment (24% 24% in 5 years). China's net contract volume and installed capacity were 1 thousand and 900 tons and 8 thousand and 200 tons respectively. [India cotton] according to the latest prediction of India Cotton Association (CAI), cotton production in India is still 35 million 450 thousand packs (6 million 26 thousand and 500 tons) in 2019/20. The total supply of cotton in India was 15 million 589 thousand packages (2 million 650 thousand tons) in 10-12 months in 2019, and 6 million 789 thousand packages (1 million 154 thousand tons) as at the end of December, including 3 million 89 thousand packages (525 thousand tons) of industrial inventories and 3 million 700 thousand packages (629 thousand tons) of commercial inventories. According to the forecast of CAI, the total supply of cotton in India was 40 million 300 thousand packages (6 million 851 thousand tons) in, including 2 million 350 thousand packages (399 thousand and 500 tons) at the beginning of the year, 35 million 450 thousand bags (6 million 26 thousand and 500 tons), 2 million 500 thousand packages (425 thousand tons), domestic consumption of 33 million 100 thousand packages (5 million 627 thousand tons), export volume 4 million 200 thousand packages (5 million 627 thousand tons), and final inventory (80 tons).

Import treasure believes that after the continuous rise, Zheng cotton has adjusted the trend, and the driving power seems to be a bit inadequate. But US cotton prices are relatively strong, and the Sino US trade agreement is imminent, so it is expected that after the short term adjustment, Zheng cotton will remain strong.

03 viscose staple fiber

   Viscose staple fiber manufacturers sell at low prices. They have reported to the center. The center of gravity has moved upward, but the volume of high price is less. Downstream users should pay more attention to the signing of the early stage. At present, the price of mid end viscose staple fiber is 9500-9700 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber is 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

The price of cotton lint is supported by cost and the price goes up slightly. Long velvet price Shandong 3650-3750 yuan / ton, Xinjiang 3200-3300 yuan / ton. The price of homemade dissolving pulp is weak, but the pulp mill's production will not be high. The price of the hardwood pulp is 5300-5400 yuan / ton, and the price of the coniferous pulp is 54000-5500 yuan / ton. The price of external dissolving pulp is stable. The price of the mainstream broadleaf pulp factory is $640-650 / ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is US $660-670 / ton, which is slightly lower than US $5-10 / ton.

Import treasure believes that the viscose staple fiber industry has improved, and the new price talks have been focused, but the demand is limited.

04 Australian wool auction for twenty-seventh weeks (2019/1/2)

Australian wool auction is closed this week. The auction will resume in January 13, 2020.

05 cotton yarn

The whole cotton yarn trading volume is not large this week, but the price trend of individual varieties still moves upward. From the variety sale, the demand of 32S and J40s of cotton yarn is better. It is mainly used for jet cotton brocade series. The prices of blended yarn products and polyester cotton yarn are stable, and the price of polyester viscose yarn series keeps stable and the volume is not large. Pure polyester yarn market performance continued to consolidate, and the volume of transactions is not large. Due to the partial weather in the northern part of the country, or after some years, the overall market has gradually entered the vacation period. The C32S of Shandong's big factory is priced at 21400 yuan / ton.

Import treasure believes that the cotton yarn market is improving under the impetus of cotton rising.

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