2019 Housing Prices Look Back: At The End Of The Year, The "Follow-Up" Growth Is Still Weak.

After the "small spring", tight financing, price promotions, and the end of the year, the housing prices in 2019 were shocked by a small wave.

In January 16, 2020, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of 70 large and medium cities in December 2019. In that month, the prices of new commercial housing in 50 cities rose, 4 cities were flat, and 16 cities fell. After 6 consecutive months of decline, the number of cities with rising house prices has increased for the first time.

Among them, the price of new premises in 4 front-line cities narrowed, or the price of new houses in two or three cities increased. Overall, the 70 city housing prices appeared at the end of the year.

In 2019, the national housing price increase appeared before high and low. During the "small spring" of the property market between March and May last year, housing prices in a number of hot cities rose significantly, and the increase in house prices in the 70 cities was widened. After a series of policies to tighten the financing channels have been introduced, some of the housing prices have been selling in the second half of the year, and the 70 cities' housing prices have also been narrowed and eventually stabilized.

Considering that the fourth quarter is usually the time for the housing companies to sprint, the price of the house at the end of the year is generally considered to be a warming of the market. But with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday and the continuous regulation of the property market, the rally is likely to break down. Most respondents believe that in some cities, the downward pressure on future housing prices is still not small.

The market is "U" trend.

In December 2019, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 4 first tier cities rose by 0.2%, or 0.4 percentage points lower than that in November. Among them, Beijing and Shenzhen rose by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, while Shanghai was flat and Guangzhou was 0.3%.

Over the same period, the price of new houses in 31 second tier cities and 35 three line cities rose by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively, or 0.1 percentage points respectively.

On average, the price of new houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose by 0.35% in December 2019, rising for the first time in six consecutive months. The average price of second-hand housing rose 0.15%, or two months in a row.

The emergence of this situation is closely related to the rise and fall of the property market at the end of the year. In view of the impact of annual sales performance, housing companies usually increase sales intensity in the four quarter, which is also easy to support housing prices. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the monthly trading heights of each year from 2007 to 2018 were 12 in December. Institutional data show that in December 2019, the scale of transactions in hot cities was generally high.

In addition, the role of favorable policies is also more obvious. For example, affected by the "luxury tax" policy adjustment, Shenzhen's second-hand housing price rose by 1% in December last year, ranking the top three in the two consecutive month in the secondary housing price increase list.

In 2019, the national real estate market appeared "U type" fluctuations. From March to May, "small spring" reappeared, and some cities were paid attention by regulators because of the excessive growth of housing prices. Since May, various regulatory policies have been introduced, and the property market has finally cooled down. In the second half of the year, due to tight financial regulation, some housing companies started to sell price promotions, and the market began to pick up again.

During this period, prices have been in the positive growth range, but the growth rate fluctuates significantly. In 2019, the 70 city's new housing price rose at a high level in May of the "little spring" period, followed by a downward trend, and began to pick up after reaching the bottom of November. The overall trend of second-hand housing prices is similar, but the peak and the trough are all one month ahead of the new houses.

House prices continued to rise in 2019. In December last year, the average price of new towns in 70 cities rose by 6.8% on average, one or two, three and 3.8%, 7.3% and 6.7% respectively.

In 70 large and medium-sized cities, only two cities in Yueyang and Luzhou last year saw house prices drop, and the remaining 68 cities rose. Among them, Hohhot, Dali and Xi'an ranked the top three by 15.9%, 15.4% and 14.2% respectively.

Fundamentals do not support the reversal of the property market.

For the price rise at the end of last year, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said it was "seasonal change". Xu Xiaole told the twenty-first Century economic report that in December last year, in the key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute, the proportion of owners who increased their prices increased by 2 percentage points. But this market and emotional performance are similar to those in previous years.

Overall, the fundamentals of real estate policies and markets have not changed, he said.

At the policy level, the central economic work conference held in December 2019 pointed out that "it is necessary to insist that the house is used to live, not to be used for frying". We should fully implement the long-term management and control mechanism that is stable and effective, stable prices and stable expectations, so as to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. This is the second consecutive year of the central economic work conference, which refers to "housing but not speculation".

Since then, the Ministry of housing, the central bank, the Banking Regulatory Commission and other relevant departments have made similar statements. The Ministry of housing also reiterated that real estate should not be used as a short-term stimulus to the economy.

Most agencies believe that although the local government has the demand for deregulation of the property market, and the new policies such as talents and household registration will be gradually introduced, at the central level, the overall keynote of the property market policy will remain in a "stable and tight" state in order to reduce the leverage.

At the market level, Xu Xiaole pointed out that from the last six months, the real estate market is still in a downward trend, and the trend is still more and more cities are falling. The rebound in December of last year is temporary. The pressure of falling prices in some cities in the future is still small.

58 Zhang Bo, director of the Research Institute of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, also said that after the record of four years of real estate transactions (from 2016 to 2019), the market is likely to enter a long downward cycle beginning this year. In the meantime, the volume and price performance of the market will not be very good.

Similar changes have been seen in second-hand housing prices, which are seen as the leading indicators of the market. In December last year, second-hand housing prices in 26 cities fell. Since last June, the number of second-hand housing prices has fallen by more than 20 in 7 consecutive months.

"The inflection point of the property market has emerged." Zhongyuan Real Estate interpretation of the above phenomenon, the market trend gradually began to fall from the previous high, housing prices are also experiencing high consolidation. Among them, the two or three tier cities with larger pre housing prices may be cooling down in the future.

Another set of data released by the statistics bureau also showed that in December last year, the sales prices of new and second-hand housing in second tier cities fell 8 months in a row, while the three line cities rose or went down for 9 consecutive months.