Monthly Report Of Supply And Demand Situation Analysis Of Bulk Agricultural Products In December 2019 (Cotton Related Part)

[features of the month] Domestic and foreign cotton prices rose slightly

[future trend] Cotton processing and production are basically finished in China; The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, downstream product consumption continues to be depressed, short-term cotton price upward space is limited. China and the United States are expected to reach an agreement on the short-term recovery of domestic cotton prices and international cotton production, which is expected to be lower than that in the first stage of international trade and trade.  

[details]

（1） Domestic cotton price rose month on month 。 This month, the plan of 500 thousand tons cotton rotation in Xinjiang began to be implemented. With the Spring Festival holiday coming, enterprises concentrated on replenishing stocks to increase domestic cotton consumption. China and the United States reached an agreement on the text of the first phase of economic and trade agreement. The short-term trade situation was better, which supported domestic cotton spot and futures prices simultaneously. Fifth, cotton rose 14 times. In December, the monthly average price of 3128b cotton in China was 13154 yuan per ton, up 0.7% month on month and 14.6% lower than the same period last year. The cf005 settlement price of the main contract of Zheng Mian futures was 13985 yuan per ton, up 9.4% month on month and 5.7% lower than the same period last year.  

（2） International cotton prices continued to rise. Cotton production in the United States, India and Pakistan decreased. The first phase of Sino US economic and trade agreement reached an agreement, and the two sides suspended the tariff increase plan originally planned to be implemented on December 15, and international cotton prices continued to rise. In December, the average monthly price of cotook a index (equivalent to domestic 3128b cotton) was 75.70 cents per pound, up 1.1% month on month and 12.0% lower than the same period last year.  

（3） The price difference between China and abroad has widened. In December, the cotook a index (equivalent to domestic 3128b cotton) was equivalent to RMB 11702 per ton, 1452 yuan lower than that of China cotton price index (CC index) of 3128b grade per ton, and the price difference was 65 yuan larger than that of last month. Compared with the domestic cotton price, the average price difference of cotton was 3176 yuan per ton, which was equivalent to the domestic cotton price of 3196 yuan per ton; The discount of sliding standard tax is 14507 yuan per ton, 1353 yuan higher than the domestic price, and the price difference is 30 yuan smaller than that of last month.  

（4） Compared with the same period in November, the import of cotton decreased. According to customs statistics, in November, China imported 105100 tons of cotton, an increase of 44.0% month on month and a decrease of 20.4% year on year. From January to November, China imported 1695600 tons of cotton, an increase of 1.1 times over the same period last year. In November, China's textile and clothing exports reached 22.069 billion US dollars, down 3.5% month on month and 4.3% year-on-year. From January to November, China's textile and garment exports totaled US $241.838 billion, up 19.4% year-on-year. 15 (5) the spinning volume increased month on month, and the yarn price decreased slightly. In November, China's yarn output was 2.614 million tons, up 5.1% month on month and 4.2% lower than the same period last year. Affected by the continued weakness of downstream consumption and the increase of short-term inventory, yarn prices fell slightly. In December, the average price of 32 Pure Cotton Combed Yarns of the main representative varieties was 20288 yuan per ton, down 0.5% on a month on month basis and 12.9% on a year-on-year basis.  

（5） Spinning volume increased month on month, yarn prices fell slightly. Compared with the same period of last year, China's output of ring yarn increased by 2.614 million tons and decreased by 11.4%. Affected by the continued weakness of downstream consumption and the increase of short-term inventory, yarn prices fell slightly. In December, the average price of 32 Pure Cotton Combed Yarns of the main representative varieties was 20288 yuan per ton, down 0.5% on a month on month basis and 12.9% on a year-on-year basis.

（6） ICAC lowered its forecast of global cotton production in 2019 / 20. Affected by the cotton production reduction in the United States, Pakistan and India, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted in December that the global cotton production in 2019 / 20 would be 26.41 million tons, a decrease of 290000 tons compared with the previous month. The global consumption is forecast to be 26.2 million tons, which remains unchanged. The global ending inventory is reduced to 18.44 million tons, which is adjusted synchronously with the output.  

（7） It is expected that the short-term rise of cotton prices at home and abroad is limited. Domestic market, cotton short-term supply is abundant. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national cotton output in 2019 / 20 was 5.889 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year, and the decline rate was lower than expected. At present, the inventory of cotton enterprises is higher, the sales progress is slower than in previous years, and high-quality cotton has no price. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the replenishment of processing enterprises has basically ended, yarn prices are still at a low level, textile and clothing exports continue to decline, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and the domestic price rise space is limited. In the international market, the harvest and processing of cotton in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end, and the main producing countries such as the United States, India and Pakistan have reduced their production. The United States Department of agriculture (USDA) and the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) lowered the global production forecast in December. The cotton production reduction helps to alleviate the pressure of oversupply. China and the United States have reached an agreement on the text of the first stage economic and trade agreement, which is conducive to the growth of international cotton trade and consumption, and provides support for the stabilization of international cotton prices.