The Textile Raw Materials Market Is Affected By The Epidemic, And The Market Is Bound To Resume Or Rebound.

According to data monitoring, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 was small. Entering the February, the worries of multiple factors accumulated were released. On the 3 day, the domestic commodity market resumed trading, and the commodities related to the textile industry, including crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and cotton, were all down. Analysts believe that the international situation is turbulent and complex. In China, public health emergencies, enterprises are postponed to resume work, and spot quotes are scarce. The fear of economy and the fear of commodity trend result in a temporary decline of futures commodities; the current situation is grim, and it is both a mechanical challenge and a challenge for commodities. Panic is a short-term phenomenon. After the enterprises resume work, traffic recovery and commodity production will take place. Normal trade, early cumulative demand and unified order release, commodity commodities will usher in a strong rebound.

Over 20 million tons of polyester production stop production cost line has strong support.

Up to 2.6, the chemical fiber company has counted the equipment plan and arrangement of dozens of polyester factories and associated stone chemical plants in February, and the corresponding inventory structure.

The above data can see that the basic selection of 10-50 tons of polyester has stopped, while the 500 thousand tons above scale factories basically reduce load stage, involving a total capacity of more than 20 million tons.

According to the latest 5500 polyester scale in 2019, the total market load rate is expected to be 64%, and this data will be further reduced with the development of the epidemic.

In addition, the inventory impact caused by continued production during the new year also presents polarization. 10-50 million tons of factory inventory remained in 17-22 days, while more than 500 thousand tons of scale factories had more than 30 days of inventory, some of which exceeded a large number of factory stock for nearly 40 days.

More than 90% of the majority of small and medium textile enterprises are in a state of shutdown. Some medium-sized enterprises, which had not stopped in the new year, were also forced to stop recently because the supply of auxiliary materials was insufficient. Logistics is still not able to recover at this stage. The big reason is that "foreigners can not return home", and even if they return home, they will be asked to "stay out" temporarily.

So even orders can not be answered. This is the current situation in the lower reaches, which can neither be bought nor sold, nor can it be opened. It is expected that after the gradual resumption of the business, the chemical fiber products will probably have a pulse sales state, but the bottom price of this impulse sales will also gradually increase. Once the product price falls to the margin of safety, the market will be snapped up. But some big factories know that they will encounter malicious purchases.

Because the difficulty in storing cash and the requirement for capital occupation will force them to accept passive sales. And hedging, the factory will choose to do more in the disk market, in order to protect the sale of finished products. In this way, the disk will mean strong support.

It can be concluded that the market inertia will decline with the macro level, but it will never encounter panic selling. The market has strong support on the cost line. Maybe a better suggestion is to prepare bullets. Flying for a while may be a good time for the trigger.

Because the epidemic market is withering, it is still optimistic about the future trend of cotton.

Affected by the epidemic, enterprises in various places are still in a state of production stoppage. Moreover, on Monday (3), Zheng cotton's opening limit was a great oscillation to the market. As a result, pessimism is spreading. But the difficulties are temporary, and we remain optimistic about cotton. The reasons are as follows:

First, Zheng cotton is slowly rising, and the haze is gradually fading away. Data show that 3 days, Zheng cotton limit. The main CF2005 contract closed at 12565 yuan / ton, or 6.51%. However, on the 4-6 day, Zheng cotton rose rapidly. As of 6 days, the main CF2005 contract closed at 13120 yuan / ton, compared to 3 yuan 12565 yuan / ton closing price rose 555 yuan / ton. In addition, intra day trading volume was moderately enlarged and holdings increased. It shows that market confidence is slowly recovering.

Two, turn in to show "volume increase price rise" trend. Statistics show that after the Spring Festival, the turnover rate of Xinjiang cotton has been generally higher in 4 working days, with a turnover rate of 100% on 3-6 working days, of which three working days. Among them, in February 5th, Xinjiang cotton was listed in 15000 tons, and the actual turnover was 13800 tons, with a turnover rate of 92%. The average transaction price was 14024 yuan / ton, up 301 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The storage of cotton is in good condition and brings hope to the market.

Three, raw materials inventory of downstream enterprises is not high. It is reported that raw materials inventory of textile enterprises in most parts of the country remains low before the Spring Festival. Among them, large enterprises are generally in 30-40 days, small and medium-sized enterprises in 20-30 days, some small factories can only maintain 10 days and a half months. According to the feedback from enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Tianjin, factories have not yet started operation on the 7 th, but the purchasing department has arranged telephone enquiries everywhere. Once the government returns to the government, the purchase of raw materials will be arranged. That is to say, after the end of the epidemic, the textile mill is likely to have a centralized procurement process, which does not exclude the retaliatory rise in cotton prices.

To sum up, although the epidemic market is withering away, cotton is promising because of the epidemic. Blind pessimism is not desirable.

The demand for masks is increasing.

With the deepening of prevention and control, in view of the shortage of medical supplies such as masks, manufacturing enterprises are stepping up to resume production, and the shortage is expected to ease at the end of February. The material masks and protective clothing are mainly non-woven materials, and non-woven fabrics are non-woven fabrics relative to textile fabrics. The basic raw material for producing non-woven fabrics is polypropylene (Polypropylene, PP). Therefore, the failure to effectively boost the terminal demand of textile products, and other factors such as the extension of Spring Festival holidays and logistics constraints, have more obvious impact on the textile industry.

First, the demand for delayed reemployment is suppressed in the short term. The State Council announced the extension of the Spring Festival holiday, and many provinces and cities also issued a number of urgent notices, involving enterprises not to return to work as early as 24 February 9th. The textile and garment industry is a labor-intensive industry. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream textile industry has greatly reduced the operating rate, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom factory has dropped to below 8%. At present, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and other places have postponed the date of textile workers' rework, and the demand for textile weaving at the end has been suppressed for a short time. Loom operating rate has been raised at a slower rate than in previous years. It is estimated that loom load will reach 30% near the beginning of 2.

Two, logistics limit inventory booster. At the same time, in order to reduce the flow of personnel to the maximum extent, there are more policies to restrict logistics and transportation. According to the current understanding, as part of the textile industry, some factories in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been affected by automobile transportation, and most factories have increased their inventory pressure. Among them, the PTA plant is mostly automated and large-scale production. Therefore, during the Spring Festival, the PTA plant operating rate remained at 90%, the supply of PTA continued to increase, and the downstream demand continued to be sluggish. Affected by the outbreak, demand recovery was postponed, and the level of PTA storage was expected to exceed.

Three, the textile export is facing challenges. In 2019, the international environment of China's textile industry was becoming more and more complex. Especially since Sino US trade friction, textile export pressure increased. In 2019 1-12, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 271 billion 836 million 200 thousand US dollars, down 1.89% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 120 billion 269 million 200 thousand US dollars, up 0.91% over the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 151 billion 567 million US dollars, down 4.01% from the same period last year. Under the epidemic, China's textile exports will face more tests.

To sum up, in the short term, the textile will be out of season, the demand will be blocked. The production time of traditional textile peak season will be squeezed. Textile enterprises may reduce the order and start up rate after the commencement of the textile industry. The direct impact of the textile market will be strengthened. It is inevitable that the market of textile raw materials will drop after the start of the festival. At present, no matter which industry we are in, concerted efforts to fight is still the top priority. I believe that with the continuous improvement of prevention and control, production recovery, we will usher in the dawn.