The Return Of The "Core Crowd" In The First Tier Cities Is 39%

Under the new pneumonia outbreak of coronavirus infection, the parties in the capital market are most concerned about three aspects: first, the daily data update of the daily epidemic situation, the two is the trend of the capital market, and three is the important factor affecting the short and medium term judgement on the market.

CICC Wang Hanfeng team also said that the number of new confirmed cases in recent days indicates that the preventive measures taken in the early stage are being effective gradually. Correspondingly, under the benchmark situation, we believe that the market may also enter the market from the more intense second stage, no longer innovate or even rebound until the third stage of the epidemic. On the one hand, the focus of the market remains the follow-up development of the epidemic. On the other hand, it is the actual impact of the epidemic on various fields and the resumption of industries.

But compared with the data of the previous two levels, the data of the reemployment situation is complex and difficult to draw a conclusion quickly, and we need all kinds of indicators to match, so that we can draw a conclusion.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter's combing, a number of securities companies have tracked the situation of population relocation, electricity consumption, traffic congestion and other indicators to judge the resumption of work.

Their conclusion is also closer. That is, except for a few industries that are directly affected by the epidemic, such as tourism, catering and so on may continue to be almost closed. Most industries return to work in varying degrees before and after February 10th, but the degree of re employment is affected by manpower, material supply and logistics.

Population and transportation

The GF Securities research team said that the resumption of work would bring about a change in the urban traffic situation, so it could be observed with the "urban congestion delay index". The congestion delay index is the ratio of the average travel time of the urban residents to the travel time of the free flow state. The higher the delay index, the greater the proportion of travel delay to travel time, which reflects the congestion of the city.

The team said that from the congestion delay index, this year's urban traffic activity is significantly lower than in previous years, while the marginal changes in major cities began in February 10th, and the future can be further observed.

Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, also put forward his own observation. He said: "traffic control also has an important impact on resuming work. Since late January, most provinces have suspended the inter provincial road passenger transport business, so far only a few provinces such as Anhui and Sichuan have been restarted. Railway departments have also taken measures such as outage and traffic control, and are expected to gradually recover in late February. At present, the total passenger volume of roads, railways, aviation and waterways is only about 15% of that during the Spring Festival last year. In addition, some areas also require people to come home from abroad to segregate and set up conditions for resuming work.

The premise of resuming labor is the return of labor force, so another core indicator of judging the resumption of work is "the volume of passenger transport during the Spring Festival".

The GF Securities research team has proposed that as an economy in the process of urbanization, the annual return of large scale seasonal holidays before and after the festival is a unique phenomenon in China's economy. The premise of resuming work is the return of labor force, so we can use the "spring transport passenger volume" to measure the progress of the resumption.

According to the statistics of the team, the return volume of Spring Festival passenger traffic is significantly weaker than that of previous years, which is related to the rhythm of epidemic prevention and control. At present, traffic and personnel flow control is still in a relatively strict situation; the two is related to transport capacity. In February 6th, the railway department indicated that the railway occupancy rate was controlled at around 50%, while the Ministry of transport requested that the attendance rate of highway and waterway should be controlled at 50%. So compared with the concentrated return in previous years, this year will be more dispersed. The Ministry of transport predicts that 160 million people will return in February 18th.

In addition, the percentage of return trips arranged by GF transport team based on the date of delivery date (after the new year's Eve, the total number of passengers transported by the railway, highway, water transport and civil aviation / the total number of passengers transported by the railway, highway and water transport on the fifteen day before the eve of the new year) is about 21% now, which exceeds 100% in the same period last year.

Shanxi securities research team also pointed out that from the current population movement, the degree of resumption of work is not as good as expected. At present, the scale of post migration is less than 30% last year, and the high speed traffic volume is less than 1/3 in 2019. The traffic volume of transport hub is less than that of last year's 1/5. In February 10th, on the 12 th of February 10th, there was no significant upward inflection point in market expectation.

Societe Generale Securities research team incorporated several sets of data into its inspection system and designed a return to work index for residents' return journey, and many of the core indicators were similar to those adopted by other agencies.

According to statistics from Societe Generale Securities, on the whole, whether it is first tier cities or new first tier cities, the return to work 2019 years ago and the return to work after the year are basically symmetrical U type, indicating that the return journey was relatively symmetrical and stable before returning to the countryside a few years ago. The return process of 2020 years ago is very high with that of last year, but there is a significant delay in the return journey, and the complete recovery still takes time. By February 9th, compared with the maximum value of staff outflow, the first tier cities and the new front-line representative cities have completed 26% and 31% personnel return respectively.

However, Societe Generale Securities also pointed out that the proportion of employees returning should be higher. It is worth noting that the net flow of staff is not exactly equal to the return proportion of employees. The returning population also includes school students, elderly people and other groups. The return time of this group of people may be even later, but it does not directly affect the re employment of enterprises. If people who return home before the new year's Eve will be regarded as the "core reemployment group" who are more sensitive to their work, as of February 9th, the return rate of the "core group" of the first tier cities and new front-line cities is 39% and 38% respectively.

Electricity consumption is still low.

According to the reporters' combing, the other core index of each institution's observation of the resumption of work is power consumption coal consumption. This time, the logic of increasing the electricity consumption will be based on the resumption of work.

GF Securities research team pointed out that whether it is the second or third industry, the resumption of work will increase electricity consumption, so we can follow the change of "power consumption coal consumption" to track the resumption of work. Usually we see the daily frequency power consumption coal consumption data is the sum of daily average coal consumption of Zhejiang power, Shanghai electric power, Guangdong electric power, Guodian, Datang and Huaneng six power generation groups. It is a large sample of electricity consumption coal.

The research team combed that, from the February 12th coal consumption data, the resumption of work is not significant. The average daily coal consumption in the first week (February 1st to February 8th) of the Spring Festival holiday is 377 thousand tons, and the average daily coal consumption for the four days is 373 thousand tons. The daily consumption of coal on the 10-12 day of February is increasing, but the link ratio is relatively low.

Shanxi securities research team also pointed out that from the daily coal consumption of power plants, coal consumption continued to be low in 2020, and coal consumption in February was still less than 400 thousand tons on the 11 day, which is basically the same as that in 2019.

Societe Generale Securities research team also said that from the average daily consumption of coal, the amount of coal consumption in previous years generally began to rise significantly after the 5-8 day of the Spring Festival. This year's average daily consumption of coal has slowed down, but there has been no sign of recovery. Most of the provinces in February 10th have already started work, but the average daily coal consumption has not risen, and the average daily coal consumption in February is about 62% of the same period last year. 10.

In addition, the reporter learned that there were specific indicators such as "blast furnace operating rate", "coking enterprise operating rate", "automobile semi steel tire start up rate" and "cement mill operating rate" and so on.

For example, "blast furnace operating rate", Xingye securities research team said that in February 7th, the blast furnace utilization rate was 64.09%, down 4.13% compared with last week's ring ratio. Compared with past years, the operating rate of blast furnace generally decreased significantly on the 10 day after the Spring Festival, and then picked up again. This year the blast furnace operation rate dropped to 2 days before the Spring Festival, and the decline was greater than the previous two years.