Yi Ge Li
Before the Spring Festival, people asked me what the impact of the Wuhan epidemic on real estate was. My view is that the epidemic will have an impact on the economy on every industry and everyone, but real estate may be one of the smaller industries.
The impact of the epidemic on real estate can be divided into two aspects: one is the possession of the property, the other is the sale of the property to the two. It has great influence on the former.
Most real estate developers have certain property holdings, which are generally commercial and cultural. The Spring Festival in Shang Street shopping mall is the most prosperous season in the year. Today, the current situation is that there are few people in the open business, and the turnover is down sharply, compared with ten less than one year on shopping mall. Most developers have taken measures to reduce rent and help businesses tide over difficulties.
It is even more difficult for the cultural tourism industry. The playground and the ice field are generally closed. The larger group is estimated to have reduced by one billion to two billion. Although the national development and Reform Commission urges all localities to return to work as much as possible, it means mainly that factories and enterprises have to reopen their cultural tourism industry. I am afraid they will have to wait for a few days.
Personally, I would suggest that cities outside Hubei should also create conditions for the establishment of the cultural tourism industry to ensure that the epidemic is safe and controllable. Most of the amusement facilities are outdoors, open space and air circulation. As long as the number of people in the park is limited, it is no safer to wear masks and seats.
It has an impact on sales property, but controllable. The biggest impact is, of course, that the sales offices have been closed and the houses have not been sold, so the developers have no source of income. Sales refunds are the main source of cash flow for real estate developers. This sudden arrest of the epidemic will put pressure on everyone.
The project of three or four line cities is expected to be interrupted during the Spring Festival. Home sales during this period can account for two or three of the total annual sales. Although the Spring Festival is the weakest year in a second tier city, there will be some turnover, rather than breaking up like this.
No one knows when the sales office will be reopened. I personally suggest that cities other than Hubei should be allowed to open at the end of February under the premise of ensuring safety and control. Thoroughly disinfection, each person must wear a mask to restrict the arrival of passengers (no more people go there), and the salesperson and the customer to maintain a distance of 1.5 meters or more to negotiate. As for signing the contract, it is easy to do so. If the epidemic is not coming, there will be a deal in 3 months.
Real estate people are upset because they do not know when the sales office will be reopened and whether the buyers will come after the reopening. I also have a saying that the epidemic is only blocking sales and delayed transactions, but it is impossible to eliminate demand. When the demand for housing is restored, it is related to the general trend of the economy and is related to the consumer confidence of the buyers.
I suggest that sales offices in all parts be reopened at the end of February, hoping to catch up with the March turnover. But it has been reopened, and this year's March can not be expected. Therefore, most developers need to be psychologically prepared for the first quarter of this year, probably the worst in the past 10 years. Small and medium-sized housing prices tighten pockets, head room enterprises to resist risks, strong, under the epidemic still dare to take a big hand. In February 11th, the first time land sold in Beijing mouse year, three of the land sold 8 billion, and the hot land auction still amounted to dozens of rounds.
One quarter of the bad harvest, big, medium and small housing prices are uncomfortable. But you can't sit still.
I heard that some of the project leaders returned to work in the early eighth year. They were busy at home office, video conferencing, and various discussions. But for housing sales, the most important thing is when to sell the house, you know, the boss did not reduce the annual sales task due to the arrival of the epidemic.
As mentioned earlier, the housing enterprises are faced with basically no cash flow pressure brought about by the transaction. Then, before opening the sales office, we should try our best to win customers, lock customers and get some cash income in advance. The more feasible way is selling online. Now VR technology is so developed that video viewing is no problem at all. There is no barrier between customers and salespeople through video communication. If we talk about it, the customer can call the deposit or the down payment first to lock the house. As for the formal contract, it is not too late to sign it in a month.
To attract customers and retain customers, housing companies must show sincerity. It should be a good time to launch a marketing campaign. Light market makes profits. Just when I wrote the paper, I saw this news: in February 13th, Hengda started selling all the properties on the Internet, and by May 10th, the buyers enjoyed the lowest price, no reason to check out, multiple purchase preferences and other rights. I remember that during the beginning of last year and the national day, most of the relevant marketing activities were launched, and sales were very effective.
Personally, I only think that during the Hengda marketing campaign, 5000 to 20 thousand, the discount rate is a bit low. I suggest that the discount rate should be divided into cities. The three or four tier cities can save 5000 to 20 thousand. The second tier cities should at least save 10 thousand to 50 thousand. The first tier cities should at least save 20 thousand to 100 thousand. During the epidemic period, this is a little attractive. In particular, those small and medium-sized Housing enterprises with high liabilities and high financial pressure should act more quickly and resolutely.
Many friends say that I used to like to sing the vacant property market, which is a great misunderstanding. I have long objected to the fact that house prices are rising too fast, which is entirely different from singing the empty property market. Even today, I still believe that China's real estate industry has a longer development period, but prices can never rise as before. Even if the epidemic blocks the sale of the house, I still have confidence in Chinese real estate. If I want to buy a house after the outbreak, I will buy it. I can buy two units or buy two sets. The only thing to remind us is that we should not treat commercial housing with past thinking. It is no longer a good investment variety with no risk and high returns.