Xinjiang Cotton Rotation Trading Suspended Cotton Textile Enterprises Recovery Rate Of Over 70%

I. market quotation

1. domestic cotton prices fell sharply

Despite recent achievements in domestic epidemic prevention and control, due to the rapid expansion of the number and scope of infection in Japan and South Korea, the market panic has led to a sharp fall in commodity prices, and domestic and foreign cotton prices have plummeted. The national cotton price B index, representing mainland standard grade lint sales, was 13086, down 403 yuan / ton compared with February 21st, a decrease of 2.99%, and the settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 12406 yuan / ton, down 1040 yuan / ton compared with February 21st, or 7.82%.

2. international cotton prices fell sharply

Last week, US stocks continued to plummet, and volatility in financial markets soared and foreign cotton futures prices fell sharply. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of China's main port on the import cotton, is priced at 73.05 cents / pound. The price of RMB converted to RMB 1% yuan is 12406 yuan / ton, down 1056 yuan / ton from February 21st, or 7.84%.

3. polyester staple fiber prices continue to fall

Last week, although the number of polyester staple fibres increased again, there were still restrictions on logistics and staff posts. Although the turnover was slightly better than that of last week, it was still low and prices were falling. In February 28th, the polyester staple price index closed at 6450 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with February 21st, a decrease of 1.07%.

4. viscose staple keeps stable.

Last week, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable, and the downstream businesses basically returned to work. Some of them had already been handed over. Before delivery, the order was gradually delivered, and the new signing was still less. The downstream mills were mainly taking the goods just now, plus some of the cotton mills were still not in place, the starting rate was not enough, and the demand for viscose staple fiber had not yet fully recovered. Viscose staple fiber price index closed at 9600 yuan / ton in February 28th, unchanged from the 21 day price.

5. domestic and foreign yarn prices are mainly stable.

Last week, despite the sharp fall in cotton prices, the prices of all kinds of yarns were basically stable. The price of domestic 32S cotton yarn decreased by 65 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester yarn and cotton yarn remained stable. Affected by the continuous drop of ICE cotton futures, the price of imported yarn has declined, and the difference between inside and outside cotton yarn has been widened. The conventional yarn is 101 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic yarn.

6., fourteenth weeks, Xinjiang cotton will enter the maximum price of 13565 yuan / ton.

According to the announcement of the State Grain and material reserve bureau and the Ministry of Finance (2019 No. third), the formula for calculating the incoming price of Xinjiang cotton was introduced. In the 2019 year, Xinjiang cotton entered the fourteenth week (2-6 March) bid price of 13565 yuan / ton, down 151 yuan / ton compared with last week.

(source: China cotton net)

Two, economy and industry operation

In 1.2, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 35.7%.

In February 2020, China's purchasing managers' index was significantly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from last month. At the same time, the survey results show that with the CPC Central Committee and the State Council coordinating the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the recovery rate of enterprises is rising faster, and production and business activities are being restored orderly. As of February 25th, the total number of large and medium-sized enterprises in the national survey of purchasing managers was 78.9%, of which 85.6% were large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

2. the downstream resumption is increasing, and the market is waiting for the epidemic to end.

According to the results of the coordination survey conducted by China Cotton bank, as of February 23rd, 64.3% of textile enterprises resumed work, and the recovery rate increased by 21.3 percentage points from the previous week. In addition, about 12% of the enterprises involved in the survey had insufficient orders, and the orders for other enterprises were mainly in years ago. Most enterprises say that the sales price of yarn is stable, and some enterprises do not sell because they have not started yet. The average price of 32 cotton combed yarn in the week was 20420 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous week.

Although the downstream operation has resumed, the market has not yet entered the "state", the market is cold, and the quotation of imported yarn is maintained in the early stage. According to specific data, the average price of 32 Cotton Combed Yarns in India is 20600 yuan / ton, which is the same price as that of the previous week. The average price difference between the 32 pure cotton combed yarn is 180 yuan / ton, and the average price of 32 cotton carded yarn in Vietnam is 20400 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous week, and the average price difference of 32 cotton carding yarn is 20 yuan / ton.

During the week, the resumption of weaving in the coastal areas continued to increase, and the number of workers arriving at the posts improved. However, due to the higher proportion of the employees in most enterprises and the need for isolation observation after the plant, the overall start-up rate was not high. The overall situation of the downstream dyeing plant is better than that of the weaving mill, and the inquiry price has increased slightly.

3. the epidemic has a great impact on the textile industry, and the textile industry is more optimistic.

According to the China yarn network survey, the epidemic of pneumonia in the textile industry generally has a great impact on the operation of the company. Judging from the classification, spinning and weaving dyeing and printing enterprises are the most affected. More than 60% of the enterprises have difficulty in operation or temporary pause. The textile and textile machinery enterprises are in a better position. About 40% of the enterprises believe that the impact is small or no obvious effect; 11.11% of the fiber enterprises believe that the impact is very large; 9.09% of the spinning machinery enterprises think there is no obvious impact.

For the industry situation in 2020, 18.18% of textile machinery enterprises thought little impact, 54.55% thought the epidemic could eliminate backward production capacity and speed up the industry reshuffle. More than 55% of fiber and spinning enterprises believe that the macroeconomic impact will lead to the weakening of consumer demand.

4. cotton textile enterprises have a turnover rate of over 70%.

Due to the different geographical location, size and the source of workers, the difference of workers' arrival rate is significant. Some factories are able to work full-time, and some factories only have 30% posts. The overall situation is that large and medium-sized cotton mills are located in large cities, large scale, and many workers come from other provinces and even other provinces. Due to the need of epidemic prevention and control, the rate of workers going to posts is low. The small textile factories located in the countryside are small in scale, and the workers are mainly peasants around them.

It is understood that most of the cotton mills that have resumed production and resumption of production are mainly made up of orders before the year, and the order is less after the year. Raw materials are basically in stock before the year, but most of them have started online procurement, and a small number of cotton yarn have been traded, and lint and cotton yarn transport has resumed.

5. US cotton export weekly: Cotton contract 214 thousand and 600 pack

According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released in February 27, 2020, the US cotton export weekly, February 14, 2020 -2 20, this week, the United States 2019/2020 annual net sales of cotton contracted 214 thousand and 600 packets, down 9% compared with last week, 32% lower than the average level of the previous four weeks. Among them, the countries and regions that have signed up include Vietnam (70 thousand and 200 packages, including 1 thousand and 100 from the Bangladesh and 800 cancellations), mainland China (39 thousand and 600 packages, including 33 thousand cancellations), Pakistan (35 thousand and 800 packages, including 100 packages cancelled), Turkey (26 thousand and 900 packages), and Indonesia (19 thousand and 200 packages, including 700 packages from Japan, and the abolition of 1 thousand and 400 bags).

6. competitiveness of imported cotton yarn continues to grow.

Traders of cotton and yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and other places responded that domestic textile enterprises and middlemen kept inquiring about imported yarn, and their samples continued to warm up in the middle of 1-2 months, especially Vietnam's 21S, 32S high quality cotton bleached cotton yarns (including knitted, rapier and air-jet):

First, after the festival, due to the slow recovery of the small and medium-sized mills, plus the increase in logistics, transportation costs and other expenses, the price of domestic yarn of some cotton enterprises and traders increased by 300-500 yuan / ton (most of the mills were trying to raise prices), and Vietnam, India and Pakistan had the advantage of price.

Two, compared with Henan, Hebei and other parts of cotton yarn main production area to implement road management and control, restrict personnel flow, logistics is not smooth, port operation and transportation is not affected by epidemic situation. Coastal area "too low" or insufficient stock of cloth factory choose to buy Yarn to solve the urgent problem.

The three is the expected increase in the RMB exchange rate from 3 to April. With the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in China, the impact on the economy has been greatly weakened, and the outbreak of the outbreak in South Korea, Japan, the United States, Iran and European countries has intensified, and the US financial market has continued to collapse. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will get rid of the pressure, self repair, and return to below 7, even to a new low within the year.

Three. Industry policies and trends

1. cotton price difference between inside and outside for three consecutive days exceeded 800 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton entered the trading halt.

According to the third and thirteenth stipulates of the new year round cotton import and export auction transaction in 2019, from February 26, 2020 to February 28th, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been more than 800 yuan / ton for three consecutive working days, and the New Zealand cotton trading in March 2nd has been suspended. During the rotation period, when the difference between the inside and outside cotton price drops to less than 800 yuan / ton, the first trading day after the fall will restart the transaction.

2. State Council: increase financial support for small and medium enterprises to resume production and resume production

On the 25 day, the executive meeting of the State Council held that the financial support measures for the resumption and resumption of production of small and medium enterprises should be increased according to the principle of marketization and rule by law. It was determined to encourage financial institutions to grant temporary loans and repayment of interest and interest payments to small and medium enterprises, and to add new loans with interest rates.

The meeting proposed that financial institutions should be encouraged to apply for temporary loans for repayment of loans to eligible small and medium enterprises with temporary liquidity difficulties, including individual business owners, with a temporary delay in repayment arrangements. Interest payments can be extended to June 30th and exempt from penalty fees.

The meeting proposed that the amount of re loan and rediscount amount should be increased by 500 billion yuan, which should be mainly used by small and medium-sized banks to increase credit support for small and medium enterprises. At the same time, the interest rate of supporting agriculture and supporting small businesses was reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%. Before the end of June, new loans granted by local corporate banks were not higher than the loan market quotation rate plus 50 basis points, and loans for small and micro enterprises were allowed to apply for refinancing loans.

3. Lanxi textile and textile industry innovation service complex received 20 million special financial incentives.

Recently, the provincial finance department and the science and Technology Department jointly issued the notice on the construction of a special financial incentive fund for the provincial industrial innovation service complex in 2020. Lanxi's cotton textile industry innovation service complex was included in the announcement, and the special incentive fund was 20 million yuan. The special fund will focus on the comprehensive construction and related R & D expenditure, and ensure the effectiveness of the industrial innovation service complex construction.

4. over 60% industrial enterprises in Akesu, Xinjiang, resumed work.

According to the Akesu daily, the Bureau of industry and Commerce indicated that after fully supporting and promoting all kinds of enterprises to resume work and resume production, as of February 25th, there were 123 reopening jobs, accounting for 67% of the industrial enterprises that could resume the work regulations, and 19 thousand and 100 workers who restarted, accounting for 43.1% of the normal employment.

From all counties (cities), the total number of enterprises with large economic volume and large scale enterprises is relatively better, and Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size have returned to 71.3%. From the industry point of view, the number of reopening enterprises has been 53, accounting for 43%, textile and clothing 14, accounting for 11%, building materials metallurgy 8, accounting for 6%, strategic emerging industries 22, 17.8%, agricultural and sideline products processing 26, accounting for 21%.

5., two is not wrong.

Recently, the southern Hunan textile industrial base project, one of the 100 major industrial projects in Hunan, was officially resumed. The construction of the 6 factory buildings in the assembly plant construction area was in the closing stage, and was completed in early May.

The textile industry base project in South Hunan has been selected as the "100 key industrial projects in Hunan" and "eight hundred billion industrial clusters in Hengyang". The project is made up of clothing production Park and environmental protection facilities park. It is planned and built. Recently, the cowboy town is built on the whole industrial chain of cowboy dress. It will expand the industrial chain of home textile, cotton and hemp and textile in the long run, and the annual output of the clothing will reach 1. 500 million, the annual output value is nearly 100 billion yuan, and the annual export volume is more than 30 billion yuan. At present, the entire assembly area assembly plant construction has entered the finishing stage, completed in early May, completed and delivered at the end of August.

Four, the new crown epidemic spread global demand worries oil prices under pressure

Last week, international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend overall. During the week, there are several main points of negative impact on oil prices: first, there have been confirmed cases of new coronavirus in many Middle Eastern countries except Japan and South Korea. The current epidemic has spread to more than 30 countries, and the threat of global infection has increased significantly. The spread of the crisis has led to the market's worries about the economic prospects, and the anxiety about the weakening of crude oil demand has also deepened again; secondly, OPEC is in the market. On the issue of the continuation of the reduction plan, the Russian side said that it was not in a hurry to announce its position on further reduction of the OPEC proposal, because there was no emergency in the oil market, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates discussed that if Russia did not help further reduce production, the three countries would jointly reduce crude oil production by 300 thousand barrels per day. With the OPEC meeting approaching in March, the market speculated that the divergence between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the issue of production reduction may affect the effect of OPEC production reduction; third, according to the latest weekly data of EIA, not only the US crude oil inventories increased during last week, but also the crude oil output of the country continued to maintain a historical high of 13 million barrels per day, which increased the negative pressure of crude oil.

Five, the US dollar fell sharply and the RMB rose 7.

China's domestic market worries eased further last week, while the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates expected to rise, pushing the US dollar down and pushing the yuan up slightly. On the 28 day of the close, the two sides broke through the 7 pass from the onshore RMB.

Although China's public health situation is increasingly stable, it has not yet reached the real turning point. If the epidemic spreads to the whole world, risk aversion and economic resilience will benefit the US dollar. It is estimated that the US index will continue to adjust its space to a limited extent, and the RMB will still be under pressure. Moreover, the demand for foreign exchange will gradually rise after the resumption of the resumption of production, and it will also restrict the rebound of the RMB.