Can Downstream Spinning Start To Resume Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Fiber Out Of The Downturn?

Since February, the direct spinning polyester staple market has gone through two waves of concentrated shipments, and the pressure of storehouse is obviously lighter than that of filament and sliced products. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of the cotton mill has been restored to about 6 percent, and the rigid demand has gradually improved. The price of direct spun polyester staple fiber has been lingering at 6300-6500 yuan / ton. Some of the operators believe that the market has basically started to explore, and the follow-up market has gradually improved. However, with the continuous fermentation of international public health incidents, the external environment is not optimistic, and domestic yarns and weaving enterprises have been started, but the terminal order has started slowly, and the yarn and fabric storage and circulation are difficult. The polyester staple industry is still not optimistic.

Price comparison of direct spinning polyester staple before and after Spring Festival

Unit: Yuan / ton

After 1 months of deep adjustment, the price of polyester staple fiber has been hovering between 6300-6500 yuan / ton. The cash flow is stable at 200-300 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to the cost of inventory. Short fiber enterprises are basically not profitable. In addition, worried about the impact of the global central bank's water supply to stimulate the economy and the hope that OPEC's production will boost oil prices and other factors, some people believe that the price of polyester staple fiber has been based. In the past few days, the shipping speed of the market has also accelerated.

However, the external adverse factors still exist, and overseas public health incidents continue to ferment. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to stimulate the market relatively limited, and the market is more concerned about the hidden dangers of the subsequent demand decline. Moreover, in view of the domestic fundamentals, the pressure of all the links in the polyester industry chain is relatively large, and PTA now has nearly 3 million tons of social inventory, and the current load is still maintained. At 83.75%, the comprehensive utilization rate of polyester is only 66.37%. At present, the storage pressure of enterprises is still larger. The port stock of ethylene glycol is also continuing to accumulate. Not only that, the stock pressure of polyester varieties is also very large. At present, except for the average stock of polyester staple less than 15 days, the storage pressure of other products is more than half a month, especially the main product polyester filament, and many enterprises have 1 stocks. -2 months.

Therefore, in a period of time, the polyester industry will still be the first to take inventory. After entering the March, the operation rate of all fields in the lower reaches of the whole country has increased rapidly, and the comprehensive spinning rate has increased to 6 above the average level, and the starting rate of main weaving bases such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang has also risen to nearly 6. But the terminal order is slow to start, the yarn and cloth storage can not be quickly digested, and the rate of increase in the subsequent operation rate will gradually slow down. It will be difficult to return to the same level in the past year, and will also limit the replenishment of upstream raw materials. This is also true of polyester staple fibres. At present, the utilization rate of staple fiber is gradually recovering. By March 4th, the industry composite operating rate (including hollow) has been restored to 57.16%, which is 13.28% higher than the lowest operating rate in February. If the follow-up mill operation rate is difficult to restore to the same level in the past year (near 85%), then it is estimated that the polyester fiber staple enterprises will not be able to recover to 8 or more.

At present, although the stock pressure of polyester staple fiber is relatively light in polyester varieties, it is mainly due to the reduction of factory production and the large price range. With the continuous improvement of its operating rate and the weakness of the terminal, the industry still has a certain amount of storage pressure. Therefore, in the context of larger uncertainties in the external environment and unstable domestic demand, the polyester staple market will still be weighed ahead. Only in the context of no profit margins for the upstream products, will the market price of staple fiber continue to surround the cost line (calculated inventory cost).