Big Data Early Warning Performance Change Risk Trend: Performance Deficit Stocks Rely On Non Recurrent Gains And Losses, The First Annual Report Changed Face To Be Vigilant

The impact of the epidemic on the disclosure of A shares annual report is still ongoing.

As of March 5th, a total of 44 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two had disclosed annual reports, which were significantly reduced compared with 109 last year.

However, the disclosure of performance notices and performance bulletins has outlined most of the 2019 annual reports. As of March 5th, a total of 2653 listed companies disclosed performance forecasts, and 1756 listed companies disclosed their performance bulletins.

The impact of Sino US trade friction, industry boom changes, exchange gains and losses...... Changes in macroeconomic and industrial changes are all visible in the cause of performance change.

The market reaction after the performance announcement also reflects the ecological changes in the A share market. For example, after relying on non recurring gains and losses, risk stocks face up instead of rising share prices, but the continued withdrawal of funds.

For sub shares, the market is also more rational. In the early days of the listing, the newly created shares of the company launched a new stock market. For the second time performance of the new shares, there is no lack of "voting with feet". The two pharmaceutical companies listed on the first test of unprofitable enterprises also continued to make price experiments after losing their earnings forecasts.

Non recurring gains and losses turn to losses and hard to change stock price decline

With the landing of the pilot registration system and the introduction of the new securities law, the ecology of A shares is gradually changing.

According to Wind statistics, as of March 5th, a total of 84 listed companies have revised their performance forecasts, of which 38 companies have been downgrading, adjusting from the annual report to the first loss, slightly reduced or continued losses, and the performance of the other 46 listed companies has been adjusted to a good level.

Specifically, there are 26 adjustments for pre growth, 15 pre reduction, 12 losses, 11 first losses, 8 slightly reduced, 5 slightly increased, 4 continued losses, 3 earnings continued.

Twenty-first Century economic report reporter noted that Rhine sports, ST remote, *ST European Pu, *ST Suo Ling, Huayi Jixin, business win universal, Changchun gas, *ST Jinshan, *ST Yang Fan, ST Hui ball, *ST swim long, Qinan shares of the 12 listed companies revised the performance notice to turn around the deficit, had expected net profit continued losses in 2019.

Combing the reasons for the specific losses can be found, including ST remote, *ST Ou Pu, *ST Suo Ling, Hua Yi Ka Xin, *ST Jinshan, Qinan shares 6 mentioned non recurring gains and losses, including 4 risk warning stocks.

*ST Jinshan (600396.SH) is a typical example. It mentioned that the wholly owned subsidiary of Liaoning Huadian Tieling Power Co., Ltd. sells its holdings of Huadian and Huadian coal shares, resulting in a non recurring profit and loss of about 564 million yuan.

However, the losses of these companies have not been welcomed by market funds. According to the twenty-first Century economic report, 9 stocks fell during the 5 trading days after the 12 stocks were released. They extended their time to 10 trading days and 8 stocks fell.

"Now investors are far away from junk stocks, and they are aware of the disruptive changes in the market environment and market ecology. First of all, it is not buying the shell, then the fried shell is not fired. Dong Dengxin, director of the financial and Securities Research Institute of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter.

"In the past market, we have the practice of shell, shell and backdoor. Now the registration system is being promoted in a comprehensive way, and the value of shell resources has been greatly reduced. Now the IPO has the transfer mechanism, the IPO channel is also multi-channel, queuing audit can be completed in three or four months, buying the shell has been very worthless. Objectively speaking, there is no such market as shell demand. Last year, 8 stocks had been triggered by a dollar denomination. For junk stocks and zombie companies, even if it uses non recurring gains and losses to regulate net profit, it can not conceal the fact that enterprises are no longer able to operate normally. Many zombie enterprises have no main business or main business can not normally carry out. In addition to selling assets, selling equipment, selling land and selling real estate, there is basically no way out. The final outcome is to be used by investors. Vote by foot. Enterprises that trigger a dollar delisting standard in 2020 are likely to exceed last year. " He said.

Performance of sub shares

New shares are often the hot spot of market funds. In twenty-first Century, the economic report reporter also combed the annual report performance announcement of the 242 new shares of new shares that have been listed since 2019.

According to Wind statistics, as of March 5th, 161 new shares have disclosed annual reports, 122 of which have made good progress, 10 are not sure, and 29 are down.

Specifically, 74 of the 161 households have increased slightly, 41 have increased in advance, 24 have been slightly reduced, 10 are not sure, 7 have continued to gain, 3 have been reduced, and 2 have continued to lose.

The reporter combed the reasons for the change of company performance and found that a number of listed companies mentioned the impact of the 2019 economic slowdown, the Sino US trade friction and other macroeconomic background and the change of industrial prosperity.

Macro and Technology (603256.SH) expects net profit of about 98 million 470 thousand yuan -11545 million yuan in 2019, down 32%~42%. For the reasons for the change in performance, it explained that the supply of electronic grade fiberglass cloth industry in 2019 was in excess of demand, and the competition was intense. The price of the company's products was reduced by the market impact compared with the same period last year, resulting in a decrease in net profit of the company compared with last year. Sino US trade friction has an impact on the company's import of raw materials and export products. The most direct impact is that the downstream part of PCB has shifted to other regions, resulting in a decline in sales of ultra-thin cloth and very thin cloth. In addition, the economic growth slowed down in 2019, the demand for electronic consumer products decreased, and the output of high-end smart phones decreased, resulting in a decline in sales of products.

300798.SZ is expected to have a net profit of about 93 million 886 thousand and 800 yuan -9910.28 million in 2019, down by 5%~10%. It indicated that in the fourth quarter of 2019, due to the combined effects of macroeconomic fluctuations and Sino US trade friction, customer demand in downstream industries was affected, and the main business income of the company decreased slightly compared with the same period last year. It also mentioned that in 2019, the company issued the initial public offering and listed on the gem, because the related listing matters were more, and the management cost increased compared with the same period last year.

The semiconductor industry's 688233.SH and Huarun micro (688396.SH) mention the impact of the semiconductor industry cycle.

Shen Gong shares are mainly engaged in semiconductor materials industry. It is estimated that net profit in 2019 will be about 73 million yuan -7700.00 yuan, down by 27.75%~31.50%. It indicated that in 2019, the global semiconductor industry stepped into the downlink stage of the industry cycle, and the demand for the terminal market slowed down, resulting in the reduction of the market size of the semiconductor equipment and materials industry.

Huarun micro main business is an integrated circuit. It is estimated that net profit in 2019 will be about 350 million yuan -3.8 billion yuan, down by 11.51%~18.50%. It explained that the fourth quarter of 2018, the global semiconductor industry has entered a downward cycle, and from the three quarter of 2019, the boom of the semiconductor industry has picked up.

In 2019, the daily interaction (300766.SZ) and the Yung Pak Technology (688005.SH) net profit in 2019 were pre reduced. 688158.SH, which was listed in January 20, 2020, expects net profit to decline by 74%-77% in 2019.

Daily interaction is expected to net profit of about 100 million yuan -1.16 billion yuan in 2019, down 53.37%-59.80% compared to the same period. It mentioned that the budget of the Internet industry has been reduced by the macroeconomic impact, and the income of the company's growth in services has decreased considerably compared with the same period last year, but the growth rate has been rebounded in the fourth quarter. In addition, in December 2019, Hangzhou's Yun Meng Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hangzhou Yun alliance"), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, was seriously deteriorated by the Shanghai business. The cloud alliance of Hangzhou, based on the expected credit loss, made an impairment loss on the total amount of about 73000000 yuan in Shanghai's animal receivables. It is estimated that the matter will affect about 55 million yuan of net profit and the final amount will be confirmed by the auditor's confirmation.

"For all of the above reasons, the net profit of the company decreased in 2019, but the net profit in the fourth quarter increased by more than 70% after excluding the isolated incident of the Shanghai zoo. It is estimated that the impact of government subsidies and other non recurring gains and losses on net profit will be about 5 million yuan -700 yuan during the reporting period. After excluding the total bad debts arising from the isolated incident of Shanghai Huan animal Industrial Co., Ltd., the company made a profit of 155 million yuan -1.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.27%-37.70% compared with the same period last year. Daily interactive presentation.

Rong Bai technology became the first company to receive the regulatory letter from Beek power battery.

In the evening of February 28th, Yung Pak technology released its 2019 performance bulletin, which achieved a business income of about 4 billion 196 million yuan, an increase of 37.98% over the same period last year. The net profit corresponding to the realization of the net profit was about 94 million 824 thousand and 800 yuan, down 55.46% from the same period last year. Dragging the company's performance is Beek's power battery, the second largest customer ever.

For the reasons for the decline in performance, Rong Bai technology said, "the company made a larger amount of bad debt preparation for the accounts receivable balance of some customers, which has a greater negative impact on the current profits and related indicators. The gross margin of product sales has declined, mainly due to the decline in product prices due to the gradual maturity of production technology and the large scale purchase of large customers. The proportion of precursors is higher than that of the same period last year and the fluctuation of raw material prices, resulting in a reduction in the gross profit margin of the company's current products.

"The first cloud computing in China", which was listed just this year, delivered its first annual report in February 22nd after a month of listing. The total revenue in 2019 was 1 billion 512 million yuan, an increase of 27.35% over the same period last year. The net profit to the parent company was 21 million 67 thousand and 600 yuan, down 72.71% from the same period last year. The net profit from the parent deduction was reduced from 79 million 726 thousand and 100 yuan to 5 million 707 thousand and 500 yuan, down 92.84% from the same period last year.

It indicated that the profit declined in the 2019 year, mainly due to the main product price reduction and increased investment, resulting in the rise of server depreciation and other factors, such as the slowdown in the overall growth of the Internet industry and the fierce competition in the cloud computing market.

The continued losses are zhe pharmaceutical and Bai otai, which are listed on the water loss test company.

"The overall performance in 2019 may not be particularly optimistic. The economic growth rate in 2019 can be said to be a new low. Under such circumstances, the performance and fundamentals of most enterprises are difficult to grow very well. Therefore, we should not blindly participate in speculative gambling for the new shares, or try to determine which companies are real white horse stocks according to the development trend of the industry. Dong Dengxin said.

At present, A shares in the first quarter of 2020 performance notice is also coming out. This reporter has learned that some listed companies have explained the impact of the epidemic on the first quarter, and found that in addition to the "epidemic economy" such as games, home food and so on, most enterprises are not optimistic about their first quarter results.

"Investors should be psychologically prepared for this year's quarterly results." Dong Dengxin said frankly.