Cheng Weixiong: Reflections On The Changing Situation Of Shoes And Clothing Enterprises Under The Epidemic Situation

The trend of the downward trend of the economy will only aggravate under the help of the epidemic, just like the people walking down the slope will be pushed to the downhill with more inertia.

At this time, coronavirus was not the same as SARS before 17 years ago. During the period of SARS, the upward trend of the local economy was very fast. Even if SARS stumbling, the end of the epidemic will still rise. This is the economic environment determined by supply and demand, and consumer confidence remains.

The current economic situation prediction is not very clear, the structural reconstruction brought about by the imbalance between supply and demand has not yet come to the ground, and the trade war has not yet been over the industrial impact. It is only willing to end the retaliatory consumption after the outbreak of the epidemic.

We must do a relatively protracted war, predict that the challenges in the next 1-3 years are not small, and do not expect the so-called online business to spring into the spring. The live broadcast, community and micro businesses are only complementary at best. The pain is that we need to clearly understand that we need to shrink our spending for a long time and focus on the main business. Culvert fine management, that is, from scale economy to quality profit economy.

In the past, enterprises emphasized the scale, emphasized the income is understandable, and the era of opportunities everywhere must speed up to grasp the opportunity to surpass the competitors; but the epidemic ended enterprises should emphasize that each department and each channel (store) is not a cost center, but a profit center, and set up the target profit oriented management of the whole staff profit with relative cash flow.

To increase revenue and reduce expenditure, really to manage the effect, improve management efficiency, efficiency and enhance operational capability level, really return to the beginning, meet the needs of user experience, do well, do fine work, do special work and do deep work, only have the chance to survive. Only then can we have the chance to achieve craftsmen products, brands and enterprises, and have the chance to achieve the dream of the world's enterprises.

　　 Preface

In the future, the incidence rate will develop in three stages: outbreak period (November to February 2), extinction period (early March to the end of May), and the full recovery period after the outbreak (the beginning of June to the end of December).

That is to say, the impact of this epidemic on China's social life and national economy is at least one year's time (half a year's direct effect and half year's indirect effect). Whether the government or enterprises, regardless of institutions or individuals, should make phased contingency plans and self-help planning according to this time line.

Outbreak period (November -2 end)

At this time, whether North and South should be a new phase of the winter season and the spring, for most garment enterprises, the peak season of the month before the Spring Festival is the same from the second tier market to the 345 line market, and the closure of Wuhan before the Lunar New Year is a stop button for the shoe and clothing enterprises that tried to make the last Zhou Chongci a year ago, and the winter products are under the influence of warm winter. Sales sluggish is also a blow. Winter products account for a large proportion of most shoe and garment enterprises in the country, accounting for at least 50% of the total.

The new year between the winter and spring is even more dismal, and the nationwide tightening of the epidemic is not enough for the new year of the rat, though SKU is not large, but gross profit is not bad.

New products in spring are heating up in Northeast China. Southern China, such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian and so on, are listed on the market before the year (or around New Year's day or before the Lunar New Year). The new products are ready to make up for the winter products in these areas because of the climate or the end of season.

The extinction period (from the beginning of March to the end of May)

After the Spring Festival, it is usually the product discount sale in winter, and the stage of full listing of the spring clothing listing. Especially in the summer before the May 1, several new batches of new products are generally listed. But according to the epidemic situation, it is not possible for the stores in the whole country to open up, and some regional stores are still unable to operate normally. Even if they can operate normally, they can resume their confidence in the stage of extinction. There are still challenges.

The full recovery period after the outbreak (from the beginning of June to the end of December)

In the summer of 6-7, summer products basically came to an end; in 7-8, considering the new products in autumn, the early winter products in the northeast region began to be new; in 8-9, winter products were new.

Impact of epidemic situation

Under the influence of the epidemic, sales of products in 19 years and 20 years have been affected. According to the normal development of the epidemic situation, if the control is in place in March, consumer confidence will need to recover at least 3-6 months. That is to say, according to the normal development of the epidemic, at least 19 winter, 20 spring, summer and even autumn products are projected; in order to reduce inventory, enterprises save themselves online. In addition, the products that have already been produced, such as spring and summer products, need not be listed in the summer, autumn and early winter. However, for the summer products that are not produced for 20 years, and the 20 year autumn and winter products that are about to take part in the order or have been ordered, it is necessary to redo the commodity planning and capacity reset plan.

　　 Future change

In the long run, large and medium shoe and garment enterprises, which are dominated by physical stores under the layout line, will accelerate the layout of online businesses, and will also accelerate the iteration of new business models.

If the epidemic exceeds three months, shops will not be able to operate normally, and that is a great challenge for enterprises. Enterprises with offline channels as the main body are in urgent need of adjusting production plans and contracting costs. Now we may as well make preparations for the transformation of spring products into the autumn products series this year.

The epidemic will aggravate the difficulties faced by some of the garment enterprises that are facing performance problems. Enterprises with offline channels as the main body are in urgent need of adjusting production plans and contracting costs.

At present, many shopping centers are affected. Although some shopping centers have announced the rent reduction, they can not solve the fundamental problem. "The key is to see the extent of the epidemic control. If the epidemic situation is controlled in March, there will be another opportunity for enterprises in the second half of the year, but it is difficult to have explosive consumption. The impact of the epidemic on the consumer side is in the medium to long term. It may take more than a year for the enterprise to recover.

The SARS epidemic in 2003 has accelerated the development of Tmall and Jingdong in the traditional e-commerce channels. Now the channel of e-commerce will be diversified and diversified. In the second half of the year, the income of garment enterprises will be reduced, and online revenue will increase. In the future, a more niche and personalized brand will rise with the advantage of the electricity supplier. The form will not be limited to the big channels such as Taobao. The more diversified channels of electricity providers such as live broadcasting and community will also take this opportunity to warm up.