Before and after the Spring Festival, the domestic public events led to the delayed start of business after the holidays, and some orders went out. However, the global public health incidents continued to spread, textiles were once again suppressed, the financial market plummeted, the external market declined sharply, and the domestic trade orders also returned. The gold and silver four were gone forever.
Statistics on the average stock days of domestic polyester filament before and after the Spring Festival
Three month Twelve Day (day)
Three month Nineteen Day (day)
Ups and downs (days)
Twenty-eight point five
Thirty-seven point five
Twenty-seven point five
Source: lung Chung
As of March 19th, some of the lower POY factories were mostly near 12-20 days, higher in the vicinity of 35-45 days, and FDY factories were mostly near 22-30 days, and some of them were low in the vicinity of a week. DTY stocks were mostly near 30-40 days, and some factories were close to two months, and low end stocks were more than ten days.
Source: lung Chung
According to long Zhong data statistics: as of March 19th, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was 68.83%, an increase of 3.31 percentage points. Specific to the professional production base, the average starting rate of loom loom in Shengze area is 74.05%, the average starting rate of circular machines in Xiaoshao area is 45.12%, the rate of starting up of Haining warp knitting enterprises is 57.54%, most of the large enterprises start up at 6-7, and some medium-sized and small enterprises start up at 3-5, and the average starting rate of Changshu warp knitting is 70.51%. The capacity utilization rate of some enterprises declined.
Main raw material PTA: with the partial overhaul of some PTA factories in mid 3, the overall domestic load has been greatly reduced, and the downstream polyester recycling has been slowly advancing. Some of the negative factors have gradually improved, and the supply and demand scissors gap has narrowed to the state of storage, the overall logic or subtle changes in the short-term market, and with the continuous slump of crude oil, the bad anticipation before the basic digestion is before the new market. Panic or relief, the logic of the external market will also change; but on the micro level, the expansion of sky inventory and processing area will continue to suppress the current market. From a macro perspective, the competition for oil producing countries has not been successful. Foreign events are still spreading, and market systemic risks still exist.
Downstream industry: the oil market is breathtaking, the biggest single day decline since 2014. The US California and New York travel ban will further reduce oil demand, and international oil prices sharply lower after early trading. WTI fell below $20 a barrel. The oversea public health and safety incidents have been upgraded, and the downstream market has not changed much. Under the condition of high inventory and low demand, weaving enterprises are facing pressure on inventory and capital. According to the China clothing association's investigation of garment enterprises' resumption of work and re production, due to low market demand and cancellation of orders, orders have been reduced, and domestic orders have fallen sharply.
During the middle of the month, overseas health incidents spread rapidly, and market pessimism was strong. Although the trading atmosphere rose slightly at the beginning of the month, there was a shortage of raw materials, and production and marketing were limited. With the continuous slump of crude oil, the pessimism of polyester market is aggravated, and the contradiction between supply and demand will become more acute. Downstream weaving enterprises are facing difficulties of high inventory and low demand, and some enterprises' capital chain is broken. Recently, with the cancellation of major clothing enterprises, fashion show and fashion show, consumers' desire to buy is restricted. Therefore, textile enterprises need to take a rational view of the market and avoid unnecessary losses in the short term.