Textile And Garment Industry A Shares Quarterly Forecast: Road Resistance And Right, Up And Down Quest

The disclosure of the annual report of the Hong Kong stock market has basically been completed. This week, the quarterly reports of A share companies have been disclosed. We have collated the general expectation of Q1 for investors. For reference: brand sales: most of the sales fell by 3-4, and the profit margins dropped more than the revenue side. All the staff strengthened the new retail channel and took the goods, most of them relaxed the dealer's Q1 goods return policy, and adjusted the Q2 order.

Casual wear: Semir clothing: Q1 domestic business revenue fell at 30%-40%, profit decline is greater than revenue, the French Kidiliz business is also facing epidemic challenges, the negative impact of the business is expected to significantly exceed the 30 million + level of 19Q1; Hai Lan home: online share is relatively small, under the challenge of the Q1 epidemic, revenue is expected to decline by 30%-40%, the profit decline is greater than the income; Taiping bird: because of the low base number of 2019Q1, the decline of 20Q1 revenue is expected to be around 15%. The profit margin 19Q1 is not about 30 million of the net profit, but the 20Q1 has a slight deficit.

High end: BIE Le Fen: revenue decline is expected to be between 20%-30%, cost side efforts to control; Di Su fashion: this week, the 19 annual report shows brilliant performance, 20Q1 expects revenue side to decline 20%-30%, profit side decline slightly larger than revenue; Song: the main brand and the other listed companies performance is expected to be more similar, because IRO French business data need to be confirmed at the end of the month. At present, it is difficult to estimate the total investment. Another 340 million one-time investment income of Q1 will be confirmed.

Home textile: fuanna: as 2019 of the year is in the adjustment stage of the franchise channel, shipments are very cautious, bringing relatively low base, so the income and profit margins of the 20Q1 epidemic have only decreased slightly; the life of Luo Lai: due to the impact of offline operation, the revenue side declines are expected to be between 20%-30%, and the profit side is down to 50%-60% according to the forecast.

New mode: Kai Run shares: Q1toC end revenue decline 20%-30%, but 2B still has 10%-20% growth, revenue is expected to be flat or slight increase, profit side decline in 0-30%; Antarctic electricity supplier: 20Q1GMV growth of about 10%, revenue and profit growth is expected to be slightly smaller than GMV growth; security fashion: 20Q1 women's clothing industry is expected to decline 30%-40%, but Li Shang generation business growth of 30%; At the same time, as a result of Q1's traditional business (application promotion and procedural promotion), advertising technology has reduced revenue and profits by 30%-40%.

Manufacturing side: most of the Q2 orders expressed concern. Huafu fashion: 19Q1 base is relatively high, 20Q1 yarn business revenue fell by about 30%, net chain business revenue fell by about 40%, driving profit side slipped 5%; Baron East: Q1 orders are now normal, but the two quarter may begin to face pressure; Lu Tai A:Q1 has not been greatly affected, but Q2 uncertainty; Jian Sheng group: Q1 has a small number of orders suspended, the number of units expected to decline in revenue and profits.

Investment logic: in the long run, we will continue to layout white horse stocks and focus on the new economy in the short term. Continue our point of view in the special report on "the leading consumer goods fell in place": 1, in the long run, the implicit return rate of China's consumer goods has increased significantly compared to 3-6 months ago. During this period, the Shenzhen stock index and the growth enterprise market rose by 10%+/20%+ respectively. In other words, the attractiveness of consumer products has improved significantly. 2, however, whether from domestic or international demand, It is hard to be optimistic in the next half year, and the market is expected to remain in a highly volatile environment when the epidemic is not stable. If the period of return allowed by investors is long enough, we can take advantage of the recent fluctuations in the allocation of consumption leaders at relatively low levels. Continue to recommend Anta sports, Tao Bo, Bosideng, Lining, Shenzhou International, Tianhong textile and other leading companies.

In the short term, the theme of live business, C2M and so on has ignited the enthusiasm of the market for the new economy. In the current economic environment, this is indeed a rare field with sustainable growth. We will also continue to tap the opportunity along the new retail industry chain as a breakthrough, and welcome new economic targets represented by Andre fashion, Antarctic electricity supplier and Tian Chong fashion.

Risk warning: the slowdown in macroeconomic growth has led to a weakening of terminal consumption and the fluctuation of raw material prices.