Zhang Dayi'S Accident Is More Painful.

The stock price and its performance are all worrying, but now they are faced with the biggest commercial sign of the company. This wave of public opinion which has aroused nationwide attention is likely to cause Zhang Dayi to no longer be friends with ALI. Zhang Dayi is CMO of the Han Han company, accounting for 15% of shares, and is the biggest brand symbol.

And once the signs of Zhang Da Yi change, such as Han company's future destiny will face great uncertainty. In fact, Zhang Da Yi, who has been through this storm, is no longer the original Zhang Da Yi. It is hard for the public to see her as red as usual. The whole thing is like an innocent soldier lying in the middle.

In 2016, the orange sky made a documentary for Zhang Dayi. At the beginning of the film, Zhang Da Yi, with a woolen roll, holding the sign, shouted that 2016 was definitely the era of Zhang Dayi. A lot of outsiders know about Zhang Dayi from the documentary.

Since then, Zhang Dayi top of the title of the first net red title, frequently appeared in the public view, has become the iconic symbol of the era of e-commerce.

Although 2019 is the live broadcast of Taobao, Zhang Dayi is constantly being compared with Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya, but this does not affect Zhang Dayi's development at all. Instead, she has played free advertising for Zhang Da Yi.

In April 17th, a public opinion on Zhang Dayi, an online provider of electronic commerce, led to a sharp turn for the worse. On the same day, Zhang Da Yi responded that it was "misunderstanding" and opened the live broadcast as usual.

From 2014 to 2020, this year is exactly the seventh year of net red Zhang Dayi. Although it has broken the average life cycle of net red in 3 years, can Zhang Dayi also go through seven years itch?

Chang Da Yi, who is not outdated?

In 2016, if the listing was listed, Zhang Dayi's net red cycle can be divided into two periods. In 2016, it was a crucial year for Zhang Dayi and Yu Han.

As for Han, it gained 300 million yuan C round of financing and landed 3 billion 300 million new stocks. At the same time, Taobao's mobile technology has won a key victory, and Taobao's live broadcasting business has started.

For Zhang Dayi, he became a shareholder of the company and won the first net of Ali's business.

Ali, as a major shareholder of the company, is mainly supported by the support of Zhang Dayi. Zhang Dayi not only helped make documentary films, but also appeared on many important occasions by Zhang Dayi C.

In the initial stage of Taobao's live broadcast, Zhang Dayi was also invited to live in the golden two hours (20:00-22:00). If Zhang Dayi insists on doing Taobao live broadcast, I don't know what the result will be. However, Zhang Da Yi, who has refreshed the record, is not interested in direct seeding. Instead, he has worked hard in brand building. After the hit CPB incident, Zhang Dayi's brand image has a great influence.

In 2019, the performance of the company has declined sharply. In order to seek a listing on Nasdaq, the interior guests attached great importance to the annual meeting and annual meeting. A total of more than 10 executives were invited.

On the 38 women's day in 2019, the official micro-blog of Ali made a tribute to 9 successful women who did business in Taobao and Tmall, and Zhang Dayi was 1/9. Ali wrote to the head net red recommendation: reversing the stereotype of the public's "1 million 500 thousand net red" and turning it into a social public interest force. And the same as the head net red, and the top ranked Sydney did not choose.

In April 2019, Zhang became the first net red to ring the bell on NASDAQ. In May, Alibaba's withdrawal was like a cult. But from the perspective of ownership structure, although Ali is still the fourth largest shareholder, it has also been reduced after its listing. Alibaba held a 8.56% stake in IPO, but in the 2019 fiscal year's annual report, Ali has been reduced to 7.5%.

Despite the outpouring of controversy and controversy, Zhang Dayi took the lead in Cannes in May with an invitation from Tmall. Even if the live broadcast of the electronic commerce made Li Jiaqi and Ya Ya quickly jump to the fire, in 2019, Zhang Dayi's status did not seem to have wavered. Compared with the rapid rise of Zhang Dayi, almost the same time debut net red in Momo, Lin Shanshan, Zhao Daxi and so on, now few people know.

After the outbreak of Zhang Da Yi's public opinion incident, "the boss of the retail store" came to the site of Lu Han holdings. At the door of the company, there was still a playbill of "Yi Qi". Zhang Dayi's live room was broadcast normally every day, as if nothing happened.

Such as Han and Zhang Dayi: all the glory and prosperity are damaged.

The control of net red is the moat of MCN organization. From a Taobao model to a partner in a listed company, if he uses interest and shareholder status, he will tie Zhang Da Yi on the same ship. But this binding also means that institutions and networks are red and prosperous.

But everyone knows that Zhang Da Yi does not know it. It may be a great pain in the heart of CEO Feng Min.

In June 20, 2016, Taobao live Festival, Zhang Dayi as the owner of the red man, was arranged for the 20:00~22:00 prime time live broadcast, for his own shop new endorsement. Within two hours, the turnover reached nearly 20 million yuan, and the unit price was close to 400 yuan. The record of Taobao's live guided sales was refreshed. During the live broadcast, a few female employees said, "she is what every girl wants to be. The boss is very good, but who wants to be Feng Min, he wants to be Zhang Dayi."

In April 2019, if the listing was broken, the stock price fell by 37.2%. Since then, it has been hovering around the $3-4 range.

What the capital market does not want to see is uncertainty. If a company or an industry is linked to uncertainty, it will encounter voting by foot, which is full of uncertainty.

First, the uncertainty of heat. Like celebrities' long-term heat, the way to keep the net red is to brush. The number of net red has increased sharply, and competition has become fiercer than ever before.

Early Li Jiaqi talked about it in the interview. He was afraid that when he woke up, no one could see the live broadcast. In order to maintain the heat, it is necessary to maintain a long-term screen, so we must invest a lot of marketing costs. Even if the screen is brushed, it is difficult to guarantee the production ratio.

How many years can Zhang Dayi be red? Suppose Zhang Da Yi is not red. What about Han?

Secondly, the loyalty of net red is uncertain. Although Zhang Dayi is tied up, can other nets be red? Will it be abandoned after being famous?

Maybe it is to ensure the loyalty of net red, such as Han has always wanted to hatch the new net red by hatching Zhang Da Yi.

There are two modes of cooperation between MCN institutions and net red. One is to find a mature net red contract directly. The advantage of this cooperation is that the net red has its own resources and directly takes the goods with them. The disadvantage is that net red and institutions belong to cooperative relationship with poor stability. Net red bargaining power is high, profit is divided into high. The way of modesty now is such a pattern.

The other is to find new net red directly, start from white paper, and eventually form a mature net red. The net red is more viscous to the platform and lower. The disadvantage is that the failure rate is high. It is this mode that goes away.

Conversely, due to the instability of net red in the platform, the platform will not easily give the core resources to the net. The internal allocation of resources will also exacerbate the gap between the core network and other networks. This can also explain why a MCN organization has only one TOP grade network.

As the core asset, "Zhang Dayi" is now on the cusp. On the 17 day, such as Han holdings shares plunged nearly 10%, closed at $3.83, or 6.36%.

For investors, the biggest impact of public opinion events is whether or not Ali will give up the cult and Zhang Yi in the future. Once we lose platform support, how far can Zhang and Da go?

Self rescue

Even without this public opinion, it is no doubt that Han is trying to reduce dependence on Zhang Dayi.

After listing, the number of net red signed has jumped to more than 100 (currently a total of 159). The outside world thinks that if the dishes are too big, the marketing cost is too high. But Feng Min has publicly stated that the cost of hatching red is "really not high".

"In the first four months, we do not make money. We invest purely in helping them to keep powder, to do content and to behave. 7 months later, it began to cash in. Most of the 7-8 months were recovered and began to make profits. In general, the monthly profit is usually achieved in fifth months. The eighth month is to recover all the investment. "

If we recover the investment return according to Feng Min's 8 months, then besides the new net red hatching, the cost of maintaining the popularity of mature net red is not low. Referring to the 4 to December 2018, if the selling cost is 158 million yuan, the selling expense rate is 18.5%. The sales rates of other three brands of squirrels, good shops and royal mud shops are 17.1%, 18.8% and 37.7% respectively. Such as the net red belt mode, did not save advertising costs.

Since last year, the proportion of self operated companies has been greatly reduced and the platform mode has been developed. The so-called self run mode is to help people set up shop and sell their own products, and the platform mode is to let net red go out to endorse and get advertising service fees.

It can be seen from the financial reports that in the fourth quarter of 2019, the growth of service revenue, such as Han, was staggering, up by 154% over the previous year, reaching 110 million 700 thousand yuan. The proportion of revenue from services increased from 11% at the end of 2018 to 23% at the end of 2019, but the bulk of revenue was still sales revenue, mainly because Zhang Dayi's store revenue was relatively large.

But this change has greatly reduced the inventory pressure, such as culvert's own, and the operational risk has also been reduced to a minimum. After all, from the earnings data, the gross profit margin of Zhang Dayi shops is decreasing. Almost no discount stores are cleaning up inventory through discount means.

On the other hand, the serious dependence on Zhang Dayi has reduced the bargaining space of Zhang Dayi. According to the insiders, the net red hatching company in the early industry has split up the net red, and the net royalty has accounted for more than ten points of sales. Now the net red percentage is probably 1/3 of the original. But Zhang Dayi's store, Zhang Dayi took 49% of net profit, and she held 15%.

Such a change, though not enough to completely reverse the excessive dependence on Zhang Dayi, is still trying to separate Zhang from his influence on financial reports. No one, such as Han, wants to reduce his dependence on Zhang Dayi, as Han has always been doing.

Such as Han and Zhang Dayi's next step

After the outbreak of public opinion, fans have a message, Zhang Da Yi, Zhang Dayi will give fans a reply later. But Zhang Dayi and Lu Han did not seem to think of how to "explain" until now.

And Ali side also said that for the relevant rumors, the company will formally set up a working group to conduct an investigation. Everyone is waiting to see the result of the investigation. The market is concerned about whether there is any opportunity for development such as Han and Zhang Dayi.

To be sure, Zhang Dayi, who is in the public opinion storm, is unlikely to get the C resources of Ali in public and private affairs. And the revenue of Zhang Da Yi's store also accounts for more than 50% of its total revenue.

Judging from the current state of affairs, such as Han does not have the ability to completely divest Zhang Dayi listed companies. We can only accept Zhang Dayi's fate.

Compared with the public opinion events, heroes and heroines are really dangerous.