The Shock Wave Of Huawei'S A-Share Dispute: Fierce Game Of Institutional Funds, Leading Fund Managers Of Technology Seeking "Bottom Hunting Time"

The news that the United States has imposed a new round of restrictions on Huawei triggered a shock in A-share technology stocks.

On May 15, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to revise the "Foreign Direct Product Rules" and the "Entity List" to limit Huawei's ability to design and produce semiconductors abroad using U.S. technology and software.

Affected by this, on May 18, the semiconductor and chip industry chain sectors were in shock, and some individual stocks were still trading up and down, but the differentiation was also very obvious. Some individual stocks turned down after rising.

In fact, according to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in order to deal with the market impact of this news, many institutions responded quickly last weekend and carried out targeted research. However, from the perspective of market performance, differences still exist.

"What is more important is the issuance and renewal of the subsequent actual licenses. From the situation after May 2019, a considerable number of export controls against Huawei continue to provide temporary licenses that are renewed every 90 days." On May 18, the investment director of a public fund in South China told the 21st Century Business Herald.

A public offering fund manager in Beijing said, "This modification is equivalent to 'one batch at a time', and it can not be simply defined as' limit upgrade '. On the whole, the second quarter was also the position increase point of technology stocks, so there are still some good buying time points in the process of decline."

Technology stocks suffered

Semiconductor opened high on the same day, but plunged in the late trading. Technology stocks fell in an all-round way, and the market was polarized.

In the afternoon, the decline of technology stocks that rose sharply in the morning expanded, including TWS earphones, semiconductor sealed test, consumer electronics, Apple, Huawei and other concept indexes, among which Zhuoshengwei, Changshan Beiming, Huazheng New Material and other concept stocks fell by limit.

"On the decline list, on the one hand, there is Huawei's industrial chain, but there is also Apple's industrial chain. This shows that the market expects that China will introduce countermeasures against the United States in the future. If both Huawei's industrial chain and Apple's industrial chain are hit, the supply and demand of consumer electronics, including mobile phones and wireless headsets, as well as the progress of communication construction and upstream semiconductor industries, will be affected further The exhibition extends to the whole electronics, communication, computer and other pan science and technology sectors. " On May 18, Sun Qi, Deputy General Manager of Equity Research Department of Founder Fubang Fund, said.

This uncertainty is the focus of market concern.

"Under the difficult situation that the international anti epidemic process is still advancing and the rapid downward trend of the global economy has not been substantially reversed, the significant intensification of disputes and games among major countries will undoubtedly make the trend of the global political economy more uncertain." Golden Eagle Fund pointed out.

In its view, compared with the outbreak of Sino US economic and trade frictions in 2018, the past two years have objectively provided Huawei with certain preparations for positive response and greater room for manoeuvre. Domestic substitution has quickly become an important choice for domestic related enterprises and brought significant industrial development opportunities.

As mentioned by the buyer's organization, the domestic alternative investment logic is more prominent in the context of the current Huawei incident. Some research papers of securities companies also believe that "2019 is the first year of reshaping the domestic supply chain, and 2020 will enter the acceleration stage."

"Independent innovation and scientific and technological self-improvement are the road we must take at present. Although we need to bear the impact of technological weakness in some fields in the short term, this is the only way to become a scientific and technological power." The aforesaid investment director of South China Public Offering Fund pointed out that.

"Judging from the performance of A-share during this period, some domestic semiconductor enterprises bottomed out earlier than the market, and walked out of the continuously rising market, reflecting the obvious change in the mainstream sentiment of investors from pessimism to positive." The said public offering fund personnel.

Compared with the decline of science and technology stocks, on May 18, the gold concept stocks representing risk aversion were strong all day. In addition, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, wine making, food and beverage and rare earth sectors that hyped counter expectations were stronger. For example, individual stocks such as Chifeng Gold, Jintian Copper and Minmetals Rare Earth rose by the limit.

"On the growth list, the rise of gold plate and agricultural plate against the trend indicates the demand for risk aversion of funds, especially the rise of rare earth plate, which is expected by other means of China's countermeasures." Sun Qi said.

35 billion capital outflow

"The further restriction plan of the United States on Huawei has little real impact in the short term. On the one hand, there is still a 120 day buffer period for upstream suppliers after the regulations take effect; on the other hand, Huawei has made early preparations for decoupling the global supply chain, including increasing international procurement and domestic independent supply." Sun Qi believed that.

In his opinion, the Sino US friction that began with the sanctions against ZTE in April 2018 has developed for two years. Both from the perspective of the capital market and the industrial perspective of related enterprises, they have sufficient psychological preparations and corresponding measures. This event will not become a key factor affecting A-shares. At present, the biggest concern of the market is the domestic economic trend.

However, judging from the trend of after hours funds, there are still differences in the judgment of institutions on relevant individual stocks.

Wind data shows that on May 18, the net outflow of the main capital by industry exceeded 46 billion yuan, of which the net outflow of the information technology industry exceeded 35 billion yuan, ranking first, accounting for more than 70% of the net outflow amount of the day. In addition to the daily consumption sector, which is a net inflow, other industry sectors also showed a small net outflow.

Specific to individual stocks, such as the semiconductor leading stock Zhuoshengwei, which fell by the daily limit, there were also significant differences in the fund allocation attitude behind it.

The Dragon and Tiger List shows that on May 18, Zhuoshengwei sold 97.7161 million yuan net. The top five seats it bought were institutional seats, with a total purchase amount of 118 million yuan. Three of the seats it sold were institutional seats, with a total sales amount of more than 97 million yuan.

Also, Huazheng New Material, a Huawei concept, fell by the daily limit. According to the Dragon and Tiger List data, on May 18, Huazheng New Material sold 55.963 million yuan, including one institutional seat for buying seats and three institutional seats for selling seats.  

"In consideration of the subsequent actual issuance and renewal of licenses and the time required for semiconductor wafers to take tens of days, we can track and judge the situation after the grace period within one to two months." The aforementioned South China public offering fund personnel told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "It is expected that the subject matter related to semiconductor equipment in the near future may rise in the future, and it is suggested to take this opportunity to reduce the exposure to such subject matter and wait for the opportunity after the callback."

From the trading situation of technology ETF funds on May 18, the fund speculation may be more intense. Huaxia Chip ETF, Huaxia 5G ETF and Cathay Semiconductor 50ETF, three technology ETFs, once again ranked among the top three stock ETF turnover rankings after several days.

The turnover of the three ETFs on the same day was 3.072 billion yuan, 2.274 billion yuan and 2.054 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 719 million yuan, 1.098 billion yuan and 240 million yuan compared with the turnover on the previous trading day. On the same day, the three ETFs all fell by more than 4%.