Cost Effective Driving Polyester Filament Prices Rebounded Slightly

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market of polyester filament in domestic market rebounded slightly this week. The most obvious increase was polyester FDY, the weekly gain was 5.41%, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, the increase was 3.37% and 2.93% respectively.

　　 Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

At present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are reported to be 5400-5600 yuan / ton of polyester POY150D/48F, 7000-7400 yuan / ton of polyester DTY150D/48F, and 6150-6450 yuan / ton of polyester FDY150D/96F. The trend of the cost side is strong, which boosted the market price of polyester filament. The center of gravity increased further, but the downstream replenishment performance was weak, and the cautious mood was strong, so the increase was not very large.

The price of crude oil market is showing a trend of increasing volatility under the support of supply and demand. Meanwhile, with the Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand tons and Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant entering the inspection this week, the domestic PTA load dropped to 87%. Superimposed PTA suppliers once again buy back the spot, and the PTA spot price continued to oscillate and rise under multiple favorable conditions. As of May 22nd, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% from the same period last year, but on the 22 day, the price fell down and adjusted for a single day's decline of 1.99%. In terms of inventory, the production capacity at the beginning of the year is superimposed on the high opening rate, and the social inventory is over 3 million 500 thousand tons. In June, Zhongtai, Yisheng and Yizheng have maintenance plans, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. In terms of processing fees, since May, the PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton. This level of processing fees is undoubtedly high in the current stage of excess capacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the result of continuous letting profits.

From the perspective of the downstream textile market, the domestic and foreign trade market has recovered to a certain extent since May, and domestic demand has gradually resumed. The order in the weaving market has improved slightly, and the goods are better than before. The manufacturers' enthusiasm has increased, and the loom operating rate has increased by more than 62%. Some overseas countries have announced their release and export sales are quietly starting. It is reported that orders for Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been issued recently. On the export side, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 21 billion 361 million US dollars, an increase of 38.43%, an increase of 9.77% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $14 billion 620 million 700 thousand, an increase of 49.36% over the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $6 billion 739 million 900 thousand, an increase of 30.31% over the same period last year. In 1-4 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 66 billion 626 million US dollars, down 12.06% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 37 billion 311 million 500 thousand US dollars, up 2.90% over the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 29 billion 308 million 900 thousand US dollars, down 22.33% from the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the current crude oil is strong and the maintenance of PTA devices is increasing. Driven by the good cost side, the market of polyester filament keeps steady. But it is worth noting that PTA's "high inventory, high processing fees and Gao Kaigong rate" problem has not been fundamentally solved, and the continued rise in the market is still under pressure. At the same time, the downstream terminal's foreign trade resumed slowly, and the order performance was not stable. The procurement of raw materials remained the main demand. If the subsequent orders could not be followed up in time, the possibility of loom load reduction could not be eliminated in the late June. In the short term, near the end of the month, the end textile enterprises will usher in a wave of purchasing action, and will still have certain support for the price. The market will still pay attention to the changes of raw materials and demand side, or the possibility of falling down.