Sino US Relations Are Worrying, Cotton Price Correction Seeks Support

Last week (may 25-29), the United States cracked down on domestic enterprises economically and exerted pressure on political provocation, which made the market worried that the relationship between the two largest economies in the world would deteriorate further, which would not only damage the two economies, but also have a huge impact on global economic development. Under the difficult situation that the epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled, the deterioration of Sino US relations will make the global economy and consumption worse. The prospect of cotton consumption is dim, and the cotton futures callback seeks technical support. There are some signs of start-up in export sales, domestic sales are weak, cotton yarn sales are fair, under the situation of general production restriction, inventory decreases slightly, and the price is at a low level and relatively stable. Futures continue to callback, point price transactions continue to have a certain number, can reach 60-70% of the normal level before the outbreak of the epidemic. Due to the influence of factors such as low start-up rate, low yarn price and slow payment collection, the overall profit of the cotton mill is meager. Last week, polyester price was 5750 yuan / ton, and weekly drop was 50 yuan / ton, while viscose price was relatively stable at 8800 yuan / ton under the support of cost. Cotton index increased by RMB 1168t / cfntt, compared with cn185 tons / week.

Futures 。 After the rise of cotton price, it can not effectively pass back, the external market callback, the risk of Sino US relations increases, the 60 day average line is suppressed technically, and Zheng cotton is slightly callback. CF2009 closed at 11480 yuan / ton on Friday, falling 100 yuan / ton weekly. The trading volume was fluctuating and the trading was cold, with a decrease of 37.4%. The open position of single hand increased by 3 284, increased by 3 284, increased by 3 284, increased by 3 287, increased by 3 287, increased by 3 287, increased by 3 287, increased by 3 287, increased by 3 287, increased by 1 287. 24282 warehouse receipts were registered, and 2026 warehouse receipts were reduced weekly. Forecast 3027, a weekly increase of 256, reflecting the spot sales pressure is great. The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States tends to ease, the economy is gradually restarted, and it is predicted that consumption will gradually increase. Technically, it has been back for a week with the support of the moving average. This week, the weak rebound probability is large, but the upward space is not large. In the near future, the main contract CF2009 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11300-12000 yuan / T.

Meipan : the cancellation of contracts has increased, and the Sino US relations continue to release negative news. After rising for four consecutive weeks, ICE Futures continued to pull back and digest a large number of profit orders. On Friday, ice's main July contract closed at 57.25 cents / pound, down 28 points a week. It hit a two-week low in the session and recovered in the end, closing above the 20 day average. China's procurement is still in progress, and procurement from other countries is expected to resume after the epidemic situation improves, which may test the support of the 20 day moving average this week.

Spot 。 Domestic sales orders were restarted and a small number of new export orders were resumed. Zheng cotton futures from this round of decline before the high 11955 yuan / ton continued to callback, constantly trigger point price trading. The transaction price of mainland stock is mainly 11800-12200 yuan / ton; the price of imported cotton is close to that of Xinjiang cotton, with Brazil cotton of 12000-12800 yuan / ton, and three silk is less, which can partly replace American cotton, and the sales are relatively good; Australian cotton 14500-15500 yuan / T, high count yarn export is limited, Australian cotton shipment is less; Indian cotton 11500-11800 yuan / ton, the price is relatively low, there is a small amount of shipment; West Africa cotton 12000-12200 yuan / ton; the price of Australian cotton is 11500-11800 yuan / T; the price of West Africa cotton is 12000-12200 yuan / ton; American cotton 12500-13500 yuan / ton, lack of comparative advantage in price, less shipment. The mills still maintain the strategy of "buy as you go" and "buy at low price". This week's low trading, Zheng cotton is expected to reduce the probability of this week.

Operation suggestions 。 Before the global epidemic situation is not substantially improved, epidemic prevention is still normalized, the global trade environment worsens due to political manipulation, and the global economy drops sharply. Cotton consumption is expected to remain at a low level for a long time, cotton consumption will gradually recover, and cotton prices will maintain a trend of concussion and gradual rise at the bottom. Cotton mills can buy at low stages, rebound rise is not suitable for chasing high. Speculators can operate according to the idea of interval fluctuation.