Asset Deviation Caused By Global "Water Release" Reappears Spot Gold'S 9-Year High

At present, the market is showing a trend of synchronous rise of risk assets and safe assets.

On the night of July 8, London gold spot broke the $1800 mark, a new high since September 2011, and this trend is still continuing. As of July 181 in London.

On the other hand, risky assets soared at the same time. The U.S. NASDAQ has not only recovered all the land lost since the outbreak of the epidemic, but also set a record high. There is no need to say much about the A-share market.

"After the outbreak of the epidemic, the global release of liquidity, of which the United States is the most obvious." Jing Chuan, chief economist of CUHK futures, said on July 9 that the liquidity released was surplus to the real economy, and some funds flowed into the capital market, thus pushing up risky assets and safe haven assets simultaneously.

At the beginning of this year, the chief economist of the Federal Reserve announced that it was necessary to cut the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve in March.

Abundant global liquidity is the basic condition, and the recent weakening of the US dollar index has once again provided an auxiliary support for the upward trend of gold price.

Under the above background, the rising trend of gold price in commodity market has been relatively clear. Even if the international gold price breaks through the 1921 US dollar high nine years ago, the process may be slightly tortuous.

How long can you stand at $1800?

The operation of international gold price is affected by the monetary policy, geopolitics and its own risk aversion nature of various countries. In different historical periods, the leading factors are different.

Judging from the characteristics of this year's price operation, its hedging attribute is relatively weak, but it is obviously affected by liquidity.

In the middle of March, London gold had a periodic decline, when the U.S. epidemic spread rapidly and the stock market repeatedly fell to the circuit breaker. In this regard, the market eventually attributed it to "asset selling caused by the decline of the stock market", and gold is one of the more liquid assets.

Similar to the situation in March, the market has shown a similar pattern in the near future, and the driving force of gold price operation still comes from the capital side.

"The most important thing is the global loose monetary policy. Although the inflation is still at a low level, it has been in a state of slow recovery for a long time. In addition, the recent high risk assets and the weak US dollar constitute a good support for gold." Zhang Jiean, a precious metals researcher at CSCI futures, said on July 9.

After all, Sichuan's preference for gold market is not affected by inflation, so it is mainly affected by the low risk of gold market.

It is also consistent with the performance of other large assets. In addition to the stock market, gold, copper and other commodity prices also rose periodically recently, and the bond market fell sharply.

It needs to be pointed out that London gold in 2011 ran above $1800 for a very short time. However, in 21 trading days, can the current market environment support the gold price above $1800?

The situation may be more optimistic than expected.

Jingchuan mentioned an important factor, that is, the scale comparison between 2011 and the current total amount of money, "take the Federal Reserve for example, the total debt in 2011 was less than $2 trillion, and now it is $7 trillion."

After being linked to the purchasing power of money, the time cycle will be enlarged, and the prices of many commodities will be bullish for a long time. The underlying reason is the rise of the comprehensive costs of mines, personnel and funds.

In his view, the basis for the current operation of gold prices above 1800 US dollars exists, and even has the conditions to surpass the 2011 high.

Zhang Jiean holds a similar view that "the development of the epidemic is not stable, and it will take a long time for the U.S. economic recovery. In addition to the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, monetary easing is expected to last at least until the end of 2021, thus supporting the gold price."

However, when gold prices rose in 2011, inflation went up more smoothly, but this year, inflation rose more slowly. Therefore, although the gold price is bullish for a long time, the process may be tortuous.

Gold prices hit new highs, which will significantly boost the whole industry. Picture vision China

Industry prosperity continued to move up

Gold prices hit new highs, which will significantly boost the whole industry.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the operating center of gold price is around 1480 US dollars, and it has risen to about 1570 dollars in the first quarter of this year.

In theory, the profit margin of relevant enterprises will be improved, but feedback to the actual market, CICC gold (600489. SH) will decline by 22.4%.

However, if we extend the cycle, we can see that the profitability of related enterprises has a very obvious positive correlation with the fluctuation of gold price.

In the super bull market from 1999 to 2011, the net profit of CICC gold increased year by year from 2005 to 1.871 billion yuan in 2011; in 2012, the peak of gold price fell back and fluctuated in the range of $1500 to $1800, and the profit scale of CICC gold in that year dropped slightly to RMB 1.557 billion; in 2013, the gold price dropped to US $1180.5, and the profit of CICC gold dropped sharply to 431 million yuan.

Now, on the basis of moving the focus of price operation to 1700 US dollars in the second quarter, although no relevant listed companies have officially disclosed the earnings forecast in the second quarter, it will be a big probability event that the profit index of the second quarter is better.

It is also in line with the above logic and expectations, driven by the sentiment that the gold price broke 1800 US dollars on the night of July 8, gold stocks collectively rose the next day.

On July 9, all 12 gold listed companies classified by Shenwan rose. Four gold stocks, including Zijin Mining (601899. SH) and Chifeng gold (600988), were up and down. Another six stocks rose more than 5% on the same day.

Even so, gold stocks as a whole still lagged behind other sectors.

From the perspective of Shenwan nonferrous metals industry, industrial metals, rare metals and metal and non-metallic materials have increased by 24.62%, 20.12% and 17.57% since June 30, while the gold plate has increased by 15.85%, ranking the bottom in the non-ferrous industry.

Considering that the stock price operation is affected by multiple factors such as policy, industry, enterprise and capital, it is still unknown whether gold stocks in the upward cycle of prosperity can have better performance.

Just like those in the industry who are optimistic that the gold price is expected to exceed the peak of US $1921, it is only based on the prediction made in the current market environment.

Gold price and stock price are determined by the market, and naturally they should be left to the market to solve.