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The Cambrian Period In Question And Expectation: Rushing To The Market Value Of 100 Billion Yuan

2020/7/21 14:05:00 2

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On July 20, the AI chip Unicorn officially landed on the scientific and technological innovation board in Cambrian. This is another high-profile star semiconductor enterprise after SMIC international, which has now officially become the first stock of AI chip in Kechuang board.

On the first day of listing, the Cambrian issue price was 64.39 yuan / share, and the opening price was 250 yuan / share, which once soared to 295 yuan / share, and the market value exceeded 100 billion yuan. As of the end of the day, Cambrian closed at 212.40 yuan / share, up 229.86%, with a market value of nearly 85 billion yuan.

The current market value is more than twice the estimated value. Previously, the Cambrian revenue is expected to be about 600 million to 900 million yuan this year, with an estimated value of 19.2 billion yuan to 34.2 billion yuan.

In addition, the Cambrian period has not yet made profits, and big customers fluctuate, so there are different opinions in the market. Some people think that the market value is close to 100 billion, but it is hard to live up to its reputation; some people think that Cambrian has technology and talents, which can not be judged by short-term operation. In any case, the Cambrian has become the benchmark of listed companies on the science and technology innovation board, opened a new domestic financing channel, and opened a new valuation system of semiconductors together with SMIC.

Yao Jiayang, a consulting analyst with Jibang, told the 21st century economic report that "there are plans for IP, chips and accelerators in Cambrian. In fact, there is still a lot of room for growth for the development of China's AI industry driven by the Internet. Many Internet enterprises or network service providers in China should be more willing to help their own services through AI. In addition, Cambrian is a local company in China. Compared with the foreign AI chip giants such as NVIDIA, it has more advantages of "geographical advantages". What we need to look at now is how Cambrian can deepen cooperation with domestic and local customers to create the revenue performance expected by the market. "

Query and expectation

Under the leadership of Chen Yunji and Chen Tianshi, the founders of two scientists, the Cambrian started with a great success. Born in the Cambrian of Institute of computing technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2016, NPU (neural network processor) is the first commercial deep learning special processor.

It has been four years since the Cambrian. The cloud chips include Siyuan 100, Siyuan 270 and Siyuan 290 under development, which are benchmarked by NVIDIA, Intel and Huawei Hisilicon; the edge chips are Siyuan 220, mainly benchmarking the chips of NVIDIA and Huawei Hisilicon; the terminal Cambrian does not make chips, but mainly licenses the processor IP to other manufacturers, including Cambrian 1A, 1H, 1M, and 1V under development (estimated to 2021) The benchmark is arm products.

At present, companies in the industry that can realize a complete intelligent chip product line from terminal, edge to cloud include NVIDIA and Huawei Hisilicon. Especially in the chips used for AI training, NVIDIA has the absolute advantage, and the Cambrian is the rising star in the chip field.

There are three questions about Cambrian. One is when to turn losses into profits? The net profits of Cambrian and Cambrian were about RMB 4105 million and rmb-1.15 billion respectively from 2017 to 2017. In 2020, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is expected to be - 650 million yuan to - 400 million yuan. After deducting the non recurring profit and loss, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is expected to be - 800 million yuan to - 600 million yuan. The reason for the increase of loss year on year is that the R & D investment continues to increase.

In terms of research and development, the Cambrian has invested a lot. From 2017 to 2019, its R & D expenses were 29.8619 million yuan, 240.1118 million yuan and 54.304.54 million yuan respectively, and the R & D expense rates were 380.73%, 205.18% and 122.32%, respectively, and the proportion of R & D investment in revenue exceeded 100% for three consecutive years. However, compared with the R & D funds of NVIDIA, Huawei and other giants, the Cambrian "grain and grass" is not much. Being able to provide blood for the company after the listing of the science and technology innovation board, and the positive competition with the giants is also the second challenge facing the Cambrian. However, the Cambrian has localization advantages and can operate more flexibly after listing.

Third, Huawei has not renewed its contract with Cambrian and lost the application scenarios of Huawei mobile phone. How can the Cambrian make up for the lack of space and further commercialize it? From the prospectus, Cambrian is expanding new customers and new business, but there is still a lack of market-oriented customers, and there are more orders in the government market.

Zhang Xiaorong, President of the Institute of deep science and technology, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report and other media: "in the long run, this company is still in its infancy and has a good development prospect. But in terms of specific investment perspective, enterprises should pay attention to valuation and performance. At present, the market expectation of Cambrian is a little high. Only by further accelerating the development of Cambrian can it correspond to the current stock price. Investors hope that its performance has a big growth, which requires enterprises to gradually cash in the future development. "

However, for high-tech companies with long-term investment, the current losses can be tolerated, while the market faced by Cambrian is still blue ocean. As a design company of general AI chips, how to expand the broader market of Cambrian is still worth looking forward to.

Multiple meanings of listing

Wang Yuquan, the founding partner of Haiyin capital, commented that the Cambrian had a high starting point and a good breakthrough point, catching up with the era of artificial intelligence. With the outbreak of artificial intelligence, this market will expand rapidly. So it does not mean that the Cambrian has no future. On the other hand, he also pointed out the shortcomings of Cambrian Industrialization: "a good science and technology enterprise is a combination of excellent scientists and senior entrepreneurs. Although the founders are super excellent, they are all scientists. And if an enterprise wants to succeed, industry insight, resources, contacts and cooperation experience are all crucial, especially in the chip industry. "

Wang Yuquan also pointed out, "in short, there are three areas in the chip industry, which are: general-purpose computing chips representing the past; special computing chips represented by artificial intelligence chips; and next-generation chips such as quantum computing and photon computing that represent the future. It's too late for us in the past, but the present and the future can be grasped, especially the present. For example, in the field of computer hardware, which is in the process of technological breakthrough, artificial intelligence chips. "

According to Gartner's prediction, the global AI chip market size will increase from $4.27 billion in 2018 to $32.3 billion in 2023 in 2022, with an average growth rate of about 50% from 2019 to 2023.

Yao Jiayang also told reporters: "if we look at the market size alone, the terminal market such as smart phones and automobiles is still the largest. In the long run, as the growth peak of cloud and terminal applications has passed, in order to share the burden of cloud and terminal AI computing, we believe that marginal computing, that is, focusing on the local computing AI chip market, should grow at an alarming rate. "

The Cambrian is the leader of this wave of artificial intelligence chip wave, and also an epitome of the gradual prosperity of domestic semiconductors. The successful listing on the science and technology innovation board has symbolic significance for the development of domestic semiconductor industry, the increase of emerging enterprises in the science and technology innovation board, and the domestic financing of semiconductors.

First of all, the market value of the Cambrian is soaring. No matter how controversial, the message is that the size and valuation of the real chip industry exceed the imagination of the public. And the science and technology innovation board is the right place to list, which is enough to support technology companies with a market value of more than 10 billion dollars.

Secondly, the rapid meeting and high popularity of the Cambrian and SMIC international reflects the asset prosperity of the semiconductor industry in the Chinese market. The development of semiconductor also needs the support of capital, which is the symbol of China's deep space exploration of science and technology. Under the financing platform provided by the science and technology innovation board, enterprises can be more flexible and can not make profits. Cambrian is not the year when they can make money immediately. However, this indicates that there are more ways for China's semiconductor financing, which can be directly financed in the capital market like the Cambrian.

Zhang Xiaorong said, A-share market, every "core" will rise. However, there are not many high-quality chip companies on the market. The Cambrian successfully developed the world's first commercial intelligent terminal processor, which is regarded as a high-quality and scarce target in the market. The science and technology innovation board has played a driving role in China's key core technology fields. There are still many cutting-edge science and technology enterprises in China. The arrival of the science and Technology Innovation Board will open a new era of financing development for these "hard core" technologies.

So, will it bring AI chip bubble? At the beginning of the year 2000, companies will have their own technology barriers, and when they look back on the development of the Internet bubble, there will always be more prosperous companies. It may be controversial whether the Cambrian can support such a high market value in the short term, but it has a far-reaching impact on China's semiconductor market. Now, enterprises have better financing channels. They don't have to go overseas or have to get a large volume to go public. They can have capital support at home and enrich the domestic industrial chain. Of course, how to make the semiconductor industry higher, faster, stronger and more prosperous is the next question to be considered.

 

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