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Tax Free Concept Carnival, "Pie" Or "Business Opportunities"?

2020/8/1 11:48:00 3

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On July 31, the tax-free sector strengthened, with Haiqi group and Hubei Wushang a both trading limits, and China immunity and Dongbai group also increased by more than 7%. The reporter noted that at present, 12 companies have joined the queue of tax-free license application, many companies have actively released the "tax-free" related signals, while Guangzhou and Wuhan are actively preparing for the landing of duty-free shops in the city.

Behind the popularity of the concept of "tax exemption", is it a "picture cake" carnival or a new round of investment opportunities?

12 companies apply for tax-free licenses

On July 31, Haiqi group announced that Hainan tourism investment company, an indirect controlling shareholder, had submitted an application for the operation qualification of duty-free products on outlying islands to the people's Government of Hainan Province. This is the latest company to embark on the road to obtaining tax-free licenses.

According to the reporter's preliminary statistics, prior to this, there were Bailian shares (600827. SH), Lingnan holding (000524. SZ), ewenshang a (000501. SZ), Dashang shares (600694. SH), Eurasia Group (600697. SH), Nanning Department Store (600712. SH), youa shares (002277. SZ), Zhongbai group (000759. SZ), Bubugao (002251. SZ), Dongbai group (600693. SH) and Haiyin shares Twelve companies (000861. SZ) and Hainan tourism investment company announced that they were applying for the business qualification of duty-free products.

In line with the actions of listed companies, tax-free related advantages and disadvantages are repeated. On July 28, Chen zepeng, deputy director of the Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at the 39th session of the 15th Guangzhou Municipal People's Congress that in the second half of the year, Guangzhou will actively promote the construction of Tianhe Road business district as an "international consumer city demonstration area" and strive to set up duty-free shops in the city. Build a platform for the release of "new products, famous products and excellent products" for urban consumption industry, and support large-scale consumption of automobiles and household appliances.

On July 29, Wuhan port and Shipping Development Group Co., Ltd. and China duty free products (Group) Co., Ltd. signed a memorandum of intent on strategic cooperation. China immunity group will set up a duty-free shop in Wuhan Yangtze River shipping center building next year.

Li Xiumin, an analyst of China Merchants Securities social service industry, believes that with the opening of the city's tax-free shop policy, consumers' convenience in purchasing duty-free goods will be greatly enhanced, which is expected to have a certain substitution effect on the existing tax-free channels and further promote the scale of the tax-free market.

The concept of diminishing tax exemption

The duty-free concept Corps is becoming larger and larger, and its combat capability seems to be getting weaker and weaker.

On June 9, Wangfujing announced that it had obtained the qualification of duty-free products. Since then, the share price of Wangfujing has been rising all the way. In addition to the increase before the news was disclosed, Wangfujing has increased by 383.30% in the past three months. On July 9, Wangfujing hit an all-time high of 79.19 yuan / share, up 4.7 times from 13.87 yuan / share at the beginning of this year.

Kaiser tourism, which had previously invested in the tax-free business of export service companies, pulled nine trading limits since June 30, and then fell back. At the beginning of July, Bailian shares, which entered the tax-free license application queue, fell back after pulling out seven trading plates from July 2 to July 10. Lingnan Holdings has raised five trading limits since July 13. Its share price has risen by more than 60% in a week and 28.54% in the year.

After joining the concept of tax-free stocks, although there have been varying degrees of strength, but did not usher in such a continuous trading limit.

After the announcement of "applying for tax-free business qualification", Nanning Department Store kept trading limits for two days, and then fell back. On July 31, the share price of Nanning Department Store fell 3.19% to close at 7.88 yuan.

Both Hubei Wushang A and Dashang shares claimed that the company was applying for tax-free license during the continuous decline of stock prices. The stock price of Hubei Wushang a reached 25 yuan / share on July 13, the peak since 2012, with a cumulative increase of 61.26%. However, the stock prices of Baiyou group, Zhongbu group and aibuhong group also tended to be calm after the announcement. On July 31, the shares of Eurasia Group fell 1.74% to close at 18.11 yuan, Zhongbai group fell 0.27% to close at 7.29 yuan, and Dashang shares fell 0.76% to close at 26.02 yuan. On July 28, Haiyin shares, which were announced to be in the queue of tax-free license application, only rose sharply on July 28, reaching 4.13 yuan at one time. However, the stock price was depressed in the following days, and it closed at 3.84 yuan on July 31.

Yang Jinsong, director of the International Research Institute of the China Tourism Research Institute, said that the duty-free shop is a franchise, and every place has tried hard to win, but it has been very difficult. Nowadays, so many companies apply for the qualification of duty-free products, "the true and the false show their magic power". He thinks that although there are epidemic reasons, there are also domestic factors to create a circular economy. Just as Wangfujing has obtained a new license, the increase of tax-free license will be a trend, with less material and more resources, and it will not blossom everywhere.

Wang Meng, an observer expert of Otro Oriental duty-free retail and CEO of Jessica's secret, also thinks that the impact of blooming everywhere on the tax market is too big. It is estimated that the state will control the issuing speed of new licenses and have certain requirements on the qualification of companies applying for licenses.

Tax free concept of "rub"

The visible favorable policies, the booming capital market, and the continuous implementation of duty-free shop projects have made many enterprises envious of the fat "tax-free" and started the performance of the concept of "rubbing" tax-free.

Recently, HNA foundation has indicated that it will continue to cooperate with licensed and powerful enterprises by providing corresponding venues or establishing joint ventures to carry out tax-free business. Supply and marketing Daji said that in the future, under the conditions permitted by the policy, the company will start to apply for tax-free license. On the interactive platform, Tianyin Holdings said that the company is very concerned about the development and changes of the tax-free industry. In terms of 3C consumer electronic products, the company actively cooperates with the China exemption group, a company licensed with tax-free licenses, to supply duty-free shops. China Merchants Shekou said on the interactive platform that the company has initially entered the field of duty-free consumption. In the future, the company will continue to build an innovative "cruise + tax-free" industrial model and actively expand various tax-free businesses. Songcheng performing arts also said on the interactive platform that Sanya eternal scene area and Sanya International duty-free shop have been cooperating. There are tax-free shopping experience areas in the scenic area, and there are many displays in Sanya International duty-free shops. Yunnan Tourism Group plans to further promote the transformation of the tourism complex with Yunnan tourism group.

In addition to the above-mentioned companies, ASHTECH, China Tianying, Hongqi chain and Taiwan Strait shares have shown investors the possibility of entering the tax-free field in the future. Although there are some "tax-free" features of the companies, they are not exempt from tax-free speculation.

Hainan's tax-free business is not related to the company's actual tax-free business, which is not related to the company's actual operation Wang Meng also believes that many companies seem to be shifting their attention by borrowing tax-free Dongfeng.

The reporter noticed that behind the "tax exemption" concept, these companies can hardly hide the declining performance. According to the financial report, HNA foundation lost 1.213 billion yuan in 2019, 3.1 billion yuan less than the previous year, and another 151 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020. In the first quarter, Yunnan Urban Investment lost 119 million yuan in net profit.

For other enterprises with the concept of tax-free, the performance forecast decreased significantly. In mid July, the supply and marketing collection released the semi annual performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit loss will be 100-170 million yuan, with a decrease rate of 4975.95% to 2968.21%. It is estimated that the net profit of shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2020 will be 800 million to 1 billion, which is 79.59% - 83.67% lower than that of the previous year. Songcheng performing arts is expected to make a profit of 78.5111 million yuan in the first half of 2020, down 90% - 100% compared with the same period of last year.

Under the carnival, who can become the next real tax-free concept stock? When will the duty-free tuyere interest?

 

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