Head Brokers Collectively Sing More Cobalt Price, Commodity Rebound Cycle Stocks Are Expected To "Return Of The King"?

After the obvious rebound of cobalt price last week, the head securities companies began to focus on the multi cobalt price in recent two days.

On August 5, Guotai Jun'an issued a research report, believing that the current round of cobalt price rise is still strong, cobalt price is expected to rise to 400000 yuan / ton. The previous day, CITIC Securities said that, driven by the supply gap and the just need for replenishment, the cobalt price is expected to rise sharply, and its "target position" is also 400000 yuan / ton.

However, the 21st century economic report reporter learned that the current supply and demand side of the cobalt industry is not substantially improved, and the price rise is more affected by the fear of "supply interruption" caused by the epidemic situation in Africa. In other words, the current price of cobalt is still limited.

Another important background is that while the cobalt price rebounded in July, other non-ferrous metal varieties also went up synchronously, such as lunlu aluminum, Lunzi and lunni. In addition, the domestic coal coke steel industry chain and glass futures continued to rise, the structural rise characteristics of the commodity market became more and more obvious.

Behind it, there is no doubt that the fund is looking for the variety speculation with basic support or story. A cobalt industry official in East China also pointed out on August 5 that cobalt as a "small metal" itself is very conducive to fund speculation, while the expectation of Africa's supply interruption contributed to the rise.

"Cut off supply" leads to expected inflation

From the perspective of the large cycle, the current cobalt price of 270000 yuan / ton is absolutely in the bottom area, and it was once close to 700000 yuan / ton in 2018.

Because of this, every rebound of cobalt price at the bottom will cause a lot of market ripples.

Our newspaper reported on July 29 that the domestic cobalt price continued to rise in late July, with the market price rising from 247000 yuan on July 20 to 278000 yuan / ton on 28th.

On August 4 and 5, CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan Securities companies successively issued research reports to support the cobalt price, while the logic of the two sellers was relatively consistent.

"Since July, there have been confirmed cases in key copper and cobalt production enterprises in the Congo (DRC), and the epidemic situation in the main production areas has further spread. The government forces enterprises to lift the closed management, which brings greater challenges to the epidemic prevention and control, and does not rule out the risk of shutdown in the future. " CITIC Securities pointed out.

Guotai Junan also believes that in the near future, the Ministry of mining of the Congo (DRC) requires the mine to lift the closed management, and consider the current health and anti epidemic conditions in Congo (DRC), so that the probability of subsequent local outbreak will increase, and the probability of mining affected by the epidemic situation will increase. In addition, the South African epidemic has greatly affected the transportation of cobalt raw materials.

Finally, the two organizations concluded that the price of cobalt is expected to rise to 400000 yuan / ton. It is in these two days that the shares of Listed Companies in the cobalt industry have soared one after another.

Since the middle of this year, the trend of Tesla's cobalt has been closed to the highest point in May, and all the shares of Tesla CO have closed down since May.

However, after careful study, the above conclusion is based on the premise that the Congo (DRC) cobalt mine production is stopped and the transportation is limited, which itself is a kind of prediction of the future industry evolution.

However, there is no obvious improvement in the current industry.

"The growth of domestic new energy vehicles begins to recover and stabilize, and Europe is also vigorously developing new energy vehicles, which will drive the demand side of cobalt to a certain extent, but the specific driving effect will be relatively limited." Baijiaxin, an analyst in the cobalt lithium industry of the business club, said on August 5.

In his opinion, although the demand from new energy vehicles is improving, 3C products including mobile phones have fallen seriously, "it is difficult to produce a significant pull on downstream demand under one plus one decrease."

In the context of no fundamental improvement in the supply and demand side, the recent upward trend of cobalt price is mainly a one-time valuation of the expected "cut-off supply".

"Under the current expectation, cobalt price can continue to rise, but how long it can maintain at this price after reaching 400000 yuan still needs the support of supply and demand." Bai Jiaxin said.

The effect of capital push up can not be ignored

Cobalt, with high unit price, small and concentrated production, is easy to be controlled by capital.

Guotai Junan research paper also pointed out that "electric cobalt is very easy to be hoarded and controlled. When the consistency expectation of rising cobalt price rises in the whole industrial chain, naturally, the whole industrial chain will form the consistent behavior of hoarding and replenishing, forming a strong inventory cycle, which in turn strengthens the range and level of cobalt market."

Therefore, the role of funds in promoting the prices of cobalt, other nonferrous metals and commodities can not be ignored. Before the cobalt price rose at the end of July, the international non-ferrous metals showed an overall upward trend.

Taking nickel, which is also used in power batteries as an example, Tesla said in July that it would purchase nickel on a large scale and called on miners to mine more nickel. Since July, lunni has also increased from US $12805 / T to US $14173 / T.

Other obvious increases include lunlv aluminum and lunzn, and the collective strength of non-ferrous metals will inevitably lead to the market pushing up the price of cobalt.

The situation in the domestic commodity market is similar. Some domestic pricing, or varieties with strong domestic voice power, have been rising in recent years.

At the beginning of July, the settlement price of the main contract of domestic glass futures was 1478 yuan / ton. By August 5, it had risen to 1806 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 22%.

Over the same period, the main contracts of iron ore futures rose by 14.27%, while coke futures and screw futures reached new highs in the year. Behind the price strength of these varieties, there is not only a certain supply and demand support, but also a fund driving effect.

Take glass futures as an example, the inventory decreased significantly and the demand side improved.

In addition, the change of futures position and transaction also shows the obvious increase of fund speculation in recent years. During the pull-up period, the main contract positions of glass futures showed a slight downward trend, but the daily trading volume increased rapidly from 150000 in early July to 500000 in early August, and more than 800000 in some trading days.

The decrease of position and the rise of trading volume just shows the obvious increase of activity and speculation of this variety.

Although the futures market has not yet seen a large-scale rise in both supply and demand, it is only because of the different degrees of structural rise in the futures market.

From this point of view, the recent market focus on "cycle stocks still have opportunities?" There is no doubt that there are still opportunities for the industries at the bottom of the industry and with price rising expectations.

After all, once the industry's prosperity reverses, the huge performance elasticity of cyclical stocks may make the pharmaceutical, consumer, and even the technology industry "embarrassed.".