Cotton Price Fluctuates Greatly And Yarn Price Remains Weak

Last week (August 3-7), driven by the continuous rise of the US market, Zheng Mian followed the rise to a new high, and quickly reversed on Friday. After the lack of gauze orders, relative overcapacity, sales difficulties, prices plummeted, general losses of conventional varieties. Cotton prices rose, yarn prices did not follow, cotton yarn production losses increased, cotton procurement suspended wait-and-see. Cotton substitutes, polyester staple fiber price rose slightly with oil at 5450 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber price remained low at 8100 yuan / ton. The price difference between cotton and its substitutes remained high, textile consumption was degraded, and cotton substitutes procurement continued to increase.

Futures. Zheng cotton in the 40 day moving average (that is, the average cost line of two months) to get support, with the United States cotton rebound and set a new high. The main CF2009 contract closed at 12340 yuan / ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 330 yuan / ton. It reached a 21 week high of 12525 yuan / ton, and the weekly fluctuation reached 575 yuan / ton. The transaction volume increased significantly. The delivery of some funds was approaching in September, and the position of some funds in January decreased by 48175, or 18.1%. In the top 20 positions, there were 301124 more orders, 35026 more orders, 402980 empty orders, 51684 new positions, 101856 positions, 16658 more, and 100000 more, reflecting that the air atmosphere is still thick. There were 17226 registered warehouse receipts, 788 of which were reduced weekly. Among them, 9024 were from the mainland, which exceeded Xinjiang. 5039 of the inland warehouses were concentrated in Jiangsu, accounting for 55.8% of the total. This shows that Jiangsu has a great potential for consumption. The forecast number is 1 540, and the weekly decrease is 67. Among them, 966 are in the inland library, which is also higher than 574 in Xinjiang. The global epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled, and the prevention and control has been normalized. The global trade order and the recovery of China's economy are facing more challenges. Before the Sino US relations and the epidemic situation are not improved, Zheng Mian will still be in the low range for a long time. Zheng Mian's main CF2009 contract is more likely to fluctuate in the range of 12500-11900 yuan / T. therefore, the 60 day moving average of this week's inertia should be supported.

External disk: China continued to purchase, and the weather in cotton area was bad. From Monday to Thursday, it rose for four consecutive trading days and reached a 22 week high. On Friday, under the pressure of profit closing, ice's main contract in December closed at 62.21 cents / pound, down 52 points a week. As the global trade environment deteriorates, the epidemic situation in some overseas regions has not been effectively controlled, and Sino US friction has escalated. It is uncertain whether China's subsequent procurement can continue to make efforts. This week, it is possible to test the support of the 60 day moving average and 60 cents / pound. Before the epidemic situation and the improvement of Sino US relations, cotton consumption will maintain a low level, and the fluctuation probability of cotton price low range is large.

On the spot. During the consolidation period from Monday to Wednesday, the point price transaction was relatively stable. After the rapid rise on Thursday, the point price transaction basically stopped, and there were occasional fixed price transactions. The price difference of cotton picking machine in the mainland is RMB 121600 / CFT, and the price difference is RMB 12100-300 / T. Among the imported cotton, Brazil cotton has the most transactions, low-cost Indian and West African cotton also has a small number of transactions, while Australian cotton and American cotton with high prices are rare.

Operation suggestions. The epidemic situation and Sino US relations are two directional factors. Other factors are basically factors that only affect the interval volatility. The epidemic situation has a trend of normalization. Sino US relations are difficult to improve in the short term. The downward pressure of the global economy is not reduced, consumption is reduced and consumption is degraded. Cotton is inevitably replaced by low-cost chemical fiber. Cotton consumption recovery road is rugged and long, cotton prices may be low shocks, and with the recovery of consumption bottom gradually up. Local cotton area weather factors can only increase some fluctuations in the interval, cotton mills need to grasp the rhythm of control, reasonable inventory, bargain phased purchase.