The Market Of PTA Is Expected To Warm Up In The Future

It's time to say goodbye to summer. At the same time, the last day is also the hottest period of the year. High temperature, hot summer and hot sun, we are looking forward to the arrival of the cool season, then the last day after sunset PTA The off-season has arrived. Will the peak season come as scheduled? Let's talk about it.

get into eight Since January, the cost side of crude oil firmed PTA Cost and mentality support, and PTA It can be said that the maintenance of the supply side has arrived on schedule, and in the near future PTA The maintenance of the device is relatively centralized, and the overall operation is now reduced to 81.01% 。 Downstream polyester end start to maintain at 87.82% That's right PTA The demand is relatively strong. However, affected by the social inventory pressure, the overall market growth momentum is insufficient, and the supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. And with the downstream terminal foreign trade orders gradually better, next PTA The market may be warming up.

PTA Comparison of weekly supply and demand balance

Source: Longzhong information

Strong support at cost side

At present, crude oil tends to vibrate or influence PX Therefore, end cost PX At present, it is still weak mainly because PX Supply and demand are in the accumulation stage in the short term, PX Poor processing 150-160 dollar / T around the wandering, continue to rise space is limited. current PX In a weak pattern, but with PX From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, in the later stage PTA Poor processing may be expected to continue to repair.

Supply narrowed, short-term supply and demand improved

the near future PTA The equipment maintenance is relatively centralized, eight month PTA The maintenance loss is about sixty-six Million tons, including Ningbo Taihua one hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons of equipment maintenance for two weeks, Sanfangxiang one hundred and twenty Maintenance of ten thousand ton unit one Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd sixty-five 10000 ton plant eight month six Daily maintenance for two weeks, Honggang petrochemical one hundred and fifty 10000 tons eight month ten Daily maintenance 4-5 God. Huabin petrochemical one hundred and forty 10000 tons eight Decrease in the last ten days of the month five Yes. Create Fuhai four hundred and fifty 10000 ton plant eight month twelve Daily load drop 6-7 Yes. at present PTA The overall construction is 81.01% , so eight month PTA The pattern of supply and demand has improved slightly. The supply side actively reduces the load, if PTA If all devices are under maintenance and load reduction, then eight In the middle and late ten days of the beginning or phased to the warehouse, supply and demand short-term good, the market sentiment slightly improved.

Demand side expects gold, silver and ten

According to customs statistics, two thousand and twenty year seven China exports textile yarns, fabrics and products in January one hundred and fifty-nine point seven six nine Billion US dollars; two thousand and twenty year 1-7 China exports textile yarns, fabrics and products in January nine hundred point eight zero four Billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase 31.3% ； two thousand and nineteen year 1-7 China exports textile yarns, fabrics and products in January six hundred and eighty-six point three zero nine Billion dollars. This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the downstream terminal textile market has indeed experienced a difficult period. However, after the storm, there will always be a rainbow. Recently, the foreign trade textile market appears to be warming up. After the epidemic, many foreign trade enterprises have received orders in the terminal market recently. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of August 13, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 67.68%, an increase of 5.08 percentage points month on month. Recently, orders for domestic footwear and underwear fabrics in autumn and winter have improved, while orders for foreign trade in European and American home textiles have picked up, which jointly promote the recovery of industry operating rate. However, it will take some time for the overall foreign trade to recover completely. The short-term return of orders in some Europe and the Middle East can not represent the complete recovery of foreign trade market. Therefore, we should continue to pay attention to the order changes of gold, silver and ten in the following years.