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New Cotton Will Be On The Market Soon, Xinjiang Cotton Will Be Banned?

2020/9/2 10:28:00 24

Xinjiang Cotton

In 2020 / 21, the pace of new cotton will be gradual. At present, defoliants have been sprayed in some areas of Northern Xinjiang. If the weather conditions are good, it is expected that news of cotton pickers entering cotton fields will be spread one after another from September 10 to 15. Generally speaking, the start-up of new cotton this year is earlier than that of the same period last year. In terms of Xinjiang's yield per unit area, most of the current views are that the cotton yield in Xinjiang is higher than that of last year, and a bumper harvest is on the way. However, recently, it has been reported that some foreign companies have banned Xinjiang cotton. Lenovo's Black Swan incident since 2020 can't help but sigh that there is a long way to go

First of all, let's sort out the news about the event

two thousand and eighteen year eight According to the Wall Street Journal thirty According to Japanese news, US Congressmen are pressing the trump administration to negotiate with the Chinese government over the "violation of human rights of the Uygur people in Xinjiang", and to impose economic and travel sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the incident.

two thousand and nineteen year twelve month three The U.S. House of Representatives passed the“ two thousand and nineteen Uyghur human rights policy act of.   In response, China's foreign ministry said that the Xinjiang related issues were not human rights, ethnic groups and religious issues, but anti violence, terrorism and anti secession issues.

two thousand and twenty year five month twenty-two In Japan, Akesu Huafu Textile Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Huafu, was listed on the list of entities by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

two thousand and twenty year six month seventeen Japan and the United States will“ two thousand and twenty The Ministry of foreign affairs responded to China's resolute opposition to the signing of the Uighur human rights policy act of“ two thousand and twenty The US side must bear the consequences.

two thousand and twenty year seven month one The U.S. government issued a "Xinjiang supply chain business advisory notice" on Sunday, warning enterprises not to let the supply chain contact with so-called "human rights violations" entities in Xinjiang and other places.

seven month twenty U.S. Department of commerce industry and Security Bureau( BIS )Announced that eleven Chinese companies joined the list of entities. eleven China's companies include: Changji Yida textile, Hotan TEDA clothing, Nanjing Xinyi cotton textile printing and dyeing three textile enterprises.

Recently, the U.S. government has asked Americans and non Americans to two thousand and twenty year nine month thirty Recently, Xinjiang production and Construction Corps directly or indirectly owned 50% Transactions between entities with or above interests nine month thirty If the relevant transaction is closed a few days ago, it is necessary to seek guidance from the U.S. Treasury Department. In order to reduce the trouble and avoid the risk, some U.S. customers clearly put forward orders to ban Xinjiang cotton.


2018-20 In 1997, trade relations became more and more intense, especially the entry into China two thousand and twenty In 2001, the global economy was hit by the new epidemic situation, and the textile industry chain was struggling. China is the largest consumer of cotton, and the United States is the largest exporter of cotton, which could have achieved mutual benefit and common development.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Foreign single for Xinjiang cotton boycott, Longzhong information that negative Xinjiang cotton market, good foreign cotton market. For real-estate cotton, the news is generally negative for the domestic cotton market, while the real estate resources are restrained. However, the current Longzhong information monitoring market finds that large textile enterprises are planning to purchase real-estate cotton resources in the new year to prevent export restrictions.

Longzhong information predicts the total cotton production in the new year five hundred and sixty About 10000 tons, slightly lower than last year 0.53% As the cotton planting area in the mainland has declined significantly. 2020/21 The annual new cotton will take the national day as an important time node. After the festival, it will face centralized listing, and the market will face new supply pressure. In terms of downstream demand, due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic textile and clothing consumption has not recovered smoothly, so the dependence on export has increased.

Figure 3

At present, trade relations remain unstable, and it is uncertain whether and when it will improve in the future. Therefore, new cotton still faces the situation of loose supply and slow and uncertain demand recovery after listing. On this basis, Longzhong information believes that it is necessary to maintain a cautious attitude towards new cotton. At present, the main contract point has climbed above 103, which is already at or even higher than its cost level. In the general trend, unless there is a major breakthrough in vaccine or the demand is better than expected, the upward space of zhengmian is very limited.

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