Last week, polyester filament experienced a wave of new sales promotion and price reduction, driving a wave of market.
This Monday (August 31), polyester factory began to promote again, polyester production and sales once again more than 100.
But on the other hand, when the polyester factory does not promote sales, polyester production and sales are pitifully low.
Now it's time to September, the demand for autumn and winter fabrics should also rise. Can polyester filament be changed by sales promotion?
Polyester in September and October in history
According to logical reasoning, 90 is the peak season of the market. Generally speaking, the price of polyester filament should be increased. However, after comparing the performance of polyester filament in September from 2015 to 2019, it is found that this is not the case.
From the above figure, we can see that there is no definite trend in the price of polyester filament in the past 90 months. There are ups and downs. In 2018, the most volatile year, polyester filament fell by more than 2000 yuan / ton in ninety-two months, and nearly 1000 yuan / ton in 2015. On the contrary, there are not many years of rise.
However, affected by the epidemic situation, this year's situation is very special, and not the same as in previous years.
Poor fundamentals, polyester plant under pressure
Upstream raw materials Since the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the prices of PTA and MEG began to decline in a straight line, and fell to the bottom in early April, and then began to rebound slowly. After June, the rebound almost stopped, PTA and MEG began to fluctuate narrowly, and the fluctuation was not obvious.
Inventory According to the statistical data of China silk capital network, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 33-43 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-33 days, and DTY inventory is about 30-43 days. It can be said that polyester inventory at this stage has almost reached the highest level in history.
In terms of profits After June this year, with the straight-line increase of polyester inventory, the profits of various products of polyester filament also showed a straight-line decline, and after July, the profits completely turned into losses. During this period, while the prices of PTA and MEG did not change significantly, the profits of polyester fiber fluctuated by several hundred yuan along with their own price changes, But on the whole, the loss situation has not been effectively improved.
If according to the experience of the past years and the inventory and raw materials at this stage, the future price of polyester seems to be not optimistic, but there is a point that can not be ignored.
Under the influence of the once-in-a-century new crown epidemic, the terminal market this year is the worst in recent years, yes, but the price of polyester filament has also dropped to the lowest in history. Take FDY 150D as an example. In previous years, 7000 yuan / ton has been a rare low price. At the most expensive time, it was sold at 12000 yuan / ton, which still fell short of demand. However, on August 31, this year, its price was 5600 yuan / ton.
It can be said that as long as the market is slightly stimulated, the rebound space of polyester prices is still very large, and this is mainly to see the performance of the downstream weaving Market.
No one wants the grey cloth in stock
"Since the beginning of the new year, we have been making a 50D * 75D Dicer. This order is continuous, and the color and variety have not changed. We have to make tens of thousands of meters each month. There is only one weaving factory that supplies us. Their overall business is not good this year and their stock is very large. It is said that each variety has more than 500000 meters in stock. But we never want to stock them when we take goods with him, as long as the recently woven cloth. " One trader said.
"As long as the fresh billet" is a common practice in the recent textile market. According to a person in charge of the weaving factory, their customers have indicated that they only need to take the recent grey fabric orders. Now this market, can come to take goods are old customers, basically according to customer requirements, can not deceive customers.
As a result, there is a contradiction in the factory. The grey cloth produced recently may not be in stock for one meter, but the stock a few months ago or even half a year ago is still piled up everywhere. Of course, this situation is understandable. On the one hand, it may be because some customers make lighter colors, and they are afraid that the inventory fabrics are too dirty and broken, which will affect the quality of finished fabrics; on the other hand, they are worried that there are all kinds of raw materials in stock, and the colors of a batch of fabrics made are easy to be poor. There is now belongs to the buyer's market, customers have the right to choose the best grey cloth, just woven out of the cloth must be much better than inventory.
Over time, the fabric on the market is bound to be some long time no one wanted inventory. It is obvious that some fabric traders can only pay attention to the low quality of fabrics, or they can't pay attention to the low quality of fabrics. And how many gray fabrics can buyers keep in stock. Obviously, relying on these buyers, the stock of grey cloth is simply indigestible, even if the low-cost selling is not necessarily able to sell.
Compared with the popular fabrics, the current textile market is more of the conventional fabrics which are constantly accumulating and can not be thrown out. These fabrics will make many textile enterprises fall into the trap of breaking the capital chain, and at the same time accelerate the capital to escape from these conventional fabrics. Perhaps in the future, enterprises suffering from the hardships of conventional fabrics may no longer be willing to produce them, or the conventional fabrics can be no longer conventional at that time!