Reporter Blog Real Estate Enterprises Moving With Regulation

After this year's epidemic, the Yangtze River Delta is the fastest region to promote the full resumption of work and production. Among them, investment became the main driving force of Shanghai's economic growth in the first half of the year, while the double-digit growth of industrial investment and the 7% growth rate of real estate development investment were the main supports. The real estate development investment in Jiangsu Province rebounded significantly, with an increase of 3.1% in the first half of the year and 4% in Zhejiang Province in the first half of the year.

After the disclosure of this year's Zhongbao of real estate enterprises, many senior executives of real estate enterprises pointed out that the cities with high performance completion are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta.

Deep ploughing in the Yangtze River Delta has also become the goal of most real estate enterprises. Among the top real estate enterprises, Xuhui is a typical one in the first and second tier cities. In the first half of 2020, Xuhui's sales amount reached 88.44 billion yuan, up 33% year on year. Among them, the contribution rate of the total sales amount of the Yangtze River Delta is 51.5%, the contribution rate of the contract sales amount of the first and second tier cities is 72.9%, and the third tier cities account for the remaining 27.1%. As early as 2016, Xuhui consciously increased the proportion of first tier and second tier cities. Especially in 2017, Xuhui locked in a large number of saleable goods in the Yangtze River Delta region. In the first half of that year, 97% of the contract sales revenue came from the first and second tier cities that it had cultivated deeply.

The layout of real estate enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta can also see traces of real estate regulation.

The second echelon's Rongxin's performance in the middle of this year was not ideal. Both revenue and profit carry forward fell, with the receivable price falling by 21% and the profit plummeted by 50%. Profits reflect the layout of its urban strategy. When the high price of the land in Hangzhou is reduced in 2018, the sales of the land in Hangzhou will be reduced substantially. In order to ease the debt pressure next year, Rongxin made an impairment of 480 million yuan in the first half of this year.

From February to July 2016, Rongxin invested 13.9 billion yuan to win eight plots in Hangzhou. By 2017, Rongxin won another 5 plots with 12.54 billion yuan. Focusing on Hangzhou, the company faces the bottleneck of revenue and profit carry forward in the past two years; in 2018, the value of Rongxin in Hangzhou exceeded 150 billion, accounting for about 25% of the total domestic reserve. By the second half of 2019, Hangzhou's property market has entered a "double limit", and Rongxin's high price land in 2016 and 2017 will slow down.

Subsequently, Rongxin adjusted its layout, began to increase the proportion of other cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and paid attention to the opportunities for the transformation of the old cities in the mainland; in 2020, Rongxin successively won 2.5 pieces of land in Shanghai.

Although the national real estate regulation and control has been more than 10 years, the real estate industry in a small cycle of three years has also experienced a similar curve. If the real estate enterprises go wrong, the dust of the times will fall on individuals.

In the past, the regulation focused on the supply side and the demand side. The recent "three red lines" have tightened the financing side of real estate enterprises. In the vacancy period before the formal implementation, in order to avoid risks and ease the pressure of facing the formal implementation of the "three red lines" next year, they have taken the initiative to make adjustments. For example, according to the sunshine city report, the company's interest bearing liabilities were 112.161 billion yuan, and the proportion of non bank financing decreased to 22.19% from 24.94% at the end of 2019.

Urban regulation and control is in turn, and the track of land acquisition by real estate enterprises also changes. For example, in Nanjing and Suzhou, real estate enterprises vie to join in the land grabbing. Nowadays, under the policy of price limit in Nanjing, many high-priced enterprises are reluctant to sell. As early as two years ago, the senior executives of a central enterprise admitted at the performance meeting that the company has a national layout, so the losses of one or two projects in Nanjing can still be tolerated.

As far as the inventory of real estate enterprises is concerned, the inventory ratio of real estate enterprises is obviously higher than 50% in 2019, and the inventory proportion of real estate enterprises is obviously higher than 50%. Among the cities in the Yangtze River Delta, as of July this year, Hangzhou had 4.27 million square meters of inventory, up 91% year-on-year. The increase was higher than that of Nanjing and Suzhou, but the inventory was not higher than that of 6.21 million square meters in Nanjing and 6.77 million square meters in Suzhou. However, due to the "double limit", the real estate enterprises can not earn too much gross profit in Hangzhou, they can only sacrifice profits for flow.

The property market in the Yangtze River Delta